Downtown's dilemma: How to thrive with 20,000 fewer workers:
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"Downtown Buffalo has a big problem.
According to city officials, there are, on average, nearly 20,000 fewer people coming into the city’s core every day during the week than there were five years ago.
That’s a drop of more than one-third – a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the remote-work trend that has taken hold in its aftermath.
And while the number can fluctuate from day to day, observers say they don’t expect the hybrid work arrangements at many employers to go away anytime soon, now that workers have tasted the opportunity.
For downtown Buffalo, fewer people is a big challenge.
That means fewer people walking the streets, fewer people patronizing restaurants and shops, and fewer people filling the offices and buildings in the central business district and surrounding areas, just as downtown Buffalo was starting to come back from decades of doldrums.
Fewer people downtown led to the decision by M&T Bank to cancel the Plaza Event Series, a staple of downtown Buffalo lunch hours for more than two decades, as attendance dwindled.
Fewer people downtown was a big factor in the new Braymiller Market seeking a bailout from the City of Buffalo and its landlord. Its owner, who had been counting on downtown office workers as regular customers, said the lower foot traffic, combined with the struggles of restaurants coming out of the pandemic, led to severe financial problems.
And the downtown Rite Aid pharmacy closed, leaving the central business district without a drugstore just as new apartments are being built and more people are moving downtown.
That’s why business leaders and public officials like the city’s economic development commissioner, Brendan Mehaffy, are worried.
“It’s called the urban doom loop,” Mehaffy said.
“Fewer people come down to the offices. There are fewer people to support our small businesses. There are fewer people on the streets, which provides that feeling of safety for individuals,” he said. “The value of the buildings go down. There is less of a tax base. There is now less of an ability to provide the services that increase the safety and security. And that sets off the next cycle of going even lower.”
Mehaffy, however, remains hopeful – even confident – that the city can still turn that around through new efforts to transform the central business district from a traditional eight-hour place to work into more of a vibrant 24-hour place to live and play.
“In every city, it’s an enormous concern. It needs the attention of everybody, at every level of government,” Mehaffy said. “People can be either slow to react to this and deal with the consequences, which will likely be more difficult to resolve the longer that time passes. Or we can be proactive.”
And being proactive means encouraging the transition of downtown from a transient office market to more of an urban neighborhood with a growing core of residents to support local businesses.
“Downtowns change all the time, and we’re the type of downtown that will reinvent itself,” said Buffalo Place Executive Director Michael Schmand, while noting that it’s not all doom-and-gloom. “We’ve always wanted a 24-hour downtown. This downtown has been through a lot. We always seem to figure it out.”
A big drop hits businesses
The Covid pandemic first hit downtown Buffalo by sending office workers home during the lockdown. And the rise of remote work continues to put a damper on activity downtown, with hybrid work schedules bringing fewer people downtown each day, especially on Mondays and Fridays.
“This isn’t a Buffalo problem,” said Dottie Gallagher, CEO of Buffalo Niagara Partnership. “It’s every city in America.”
In Buffalo, according to city officials, there were 54,000 employees working in the central business district prior to the start of the pandemic in March 2020, based on traffic counts from location-based cellphones tracked by Streetlight Data. As of 2022, it was just below 36,000, and had only reached 37,000 last year, Mehaffy said.
With such a significant drop, restaurants, shops and other businesses are now struggling to survive when the early morning, lunchtime or late-afternoon traffic they relied on isn’t there.
“That lunchtime period was really their sweet spot,” said Brandye Merriweather, president of the Buffalo Urban Development Corp.
It’s forcing those businesses to adjust their hours and staffing just to stay open.
“It is devastating to the restaurants and lunch crowd,” Gallagher said. “Throughout the city, you have to call ahead to make sure they’re open for lunch.”
Reversing that work trend will be difficult, if not impossible.
“I don’t think the workplace is changing anytime soon. There will still be this hybrid workspace,” said Karen Utz, Western New York regional director for Empire State Development.
Mehaffy, building owners, developers and others say the key lies in remaking the city’s downtown so it’s not reliant as much on the daytime workers but rather on its new permanent residents, evening diners, nighttime revelers and weekend visitors.
“We recognize that downtown is already one of the fastest-growing neighborhoods, and is going to become more of a neighborhood,” Mehaffy said. “The reality is way more people are coming downtown at this point in time at night.”
That’s why he and others in the city are pushing so hard to accelerate the transformation, by converting more of the outdated and empty office space, by creating new places to live, eat and shop, and by enhancing the city’s streetscapes and infrastructure to make it both attractive to be there, and easy to get around.
“People really want that vibrant outdoor experience to mirror the experience they have inside,” Merriweather said. “This is about trying to enhance the experience in and around Buffalo.”
Coming back from pandemic
Buffalo is still working its way back from the pandemic, as are most cities. M&T Bank invested $58 million to create its new technology hub as the anchor of the redeveloped Seneca One tower, but it’s still not fully occupied on a daily basis, despite the bank’s efforts to bring employees back. So are many other offices, both large and small, leading companies to downsize because they can get by with less space.
“There’s still a lot of real estate that people are paying leases on that are sitting vacant,” Gallagher said. “I don’t think any of us have our arms around what that is.”
Meanwhile, restaurants and entrepreneurs that opened prior to or during Covid have had to close their doors or reconfigure their operation. Braymiller’s Market at 201 Ellicott St. – opened with great fanfare in 2021 – needed a $562,000 bailout from the city and $500,000 from developer Paul Ciminelli to overcome its losses. And other eateries, shops and small businesses are just scraping by, as their customer base disappeared or hasn’t fully come back.
“It’s been a tough last three years,” Ciminelli said. “Unless downtown continues to transform itself into more of a center of entertainment with more housing and just to bring a different element downtown, retailers are going to continue to struggle.”
More than work
Buffalo believes it has an answer, and was already heading down that path even before Covid: Make downtown into much more than just a place to work.
That’s been the goal behind initiatives like the Buffalo Building Re-Use Program, which encouraged developers to buy and renovate older, underused or vacant buildings, and even provided low-interest loans in support. Such conversions led to thousands of new apartments.
“We’ve done that,” Gallagher said. “The question is what would be next.”
The city wants to reinvigorate that program, as officials expect more properties to need redevelopment, and the demand for more residential space remains strong.
That pursuit has also been the driving force behind Buffalo’s efforts to make downtown more accessible, more appealing and more connected by investing in new streetscape, infrastructure and technology, and new ways to get around.
“This is not a Buffalo issue. It’s a downtown issue,” said Ralph DeNisco, a senior principal in transportation and mobility for global engineering services firm Stantec, which is working with Buffalo on its “smart streets” downtown transformation, including a pilot program focused on remaking Washington Street. “The nature of work is changing. The nature of downtowns is changing.”
The changes are already evident. According to studies cited by Stantec, only 52% of the daily vehicle trips into downtown Buffalo are for work. That means the other 48% are for other purposes.
“Those work trips are being replaced by other trips, by people who live here and are activating the street and the retail and all the other amenities all day long,” DeNisco said. “It’s also replaced by the things that only a downtown has. It’s the place where people come together.”
In fact, a separate survey of nearly 700 respondents found that 68% of people come downtown for special events, 66% for Canalside or waterfront activities, and 65% to dine at a restaurant. Only 45% cite their job as the reason for coming downtown.
“Those visitations and special events are really driving a lot of what goes on in downtown, and that’s a testament to all the activity that’s already going on,” said Catrina Meyer, a transportation planner with Stantec.
Speed it up
Mehaffy says the city wants to accelerate that.
The city hopes to encourage more people to come downtown by enabling them to easily get around between the waterfront, central business district and Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus without needing a car after they have parked it once. The pilot program on Washington would include dedicated lanes for pedestrians, bicycles and e-scooters, and would encourage more use of shuttles, ride shares or other means to get around.
“We want people to leave their cars behind and to see what the waterfront has to offer,” Merriweather said. “We want people to stay and visit the businesses.”
New paths and parks would connect downtown from Canalside to the Medical Campus, as well as the nearby West Side and East Side neighborhoods.
New technology would make it easier to track parking, move traffic, and protect bicyclists and pedestrians, while so-called “adjustable curbs” would allow flexibility for sections of sidewalk to be used alternatively for parking or for pop-up patios, markets or “streeteries.”
And redevelopment of old buildings and vacant lots, with encouragement for new retail and restaurants, would also make the streets more lively and appealing to walk along.
“The primary driver of activity downtown traditionally was the office user, and that’s not the future,” Ciminelli said.
“The future is more residential, more entertainment, and to continue to transform itself into something that’s not the central business district, but the central entertainment district,” he said. “The city has to continue to invest in downtown, in its public spaces, make it more of a user-friendly environment, more pedestrian-friendly. It’s just got to do it quicker.”"