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There is no doubt that Buffalo's population is in freefall, so I am curious as to exactly how low you think it will get. It appears that the decline slowed, but then has increased again.
So exactly how many people will leave the area in about 5 years. Will sound policies return to area attracting families and businesses? Or will our politicians continue to accelerate the decline?
***Note that the population at the time of this poll is estimated at just about 270,000 (down about 25,000 in a decade)
Judging the city of Buffalo's population without accounting for the whole metro area is very unfair as many that have left Buffalo have merely relocated to the outlying suburbs ... that's not to say that there isn't a large group of carpetbaggers that left for NC, Florida, etc just that by claiming Buffalo has lost X amount of people doesn't tell the whole story. Buffalo is one of the fastest growing real estate markets in the country as well as one of the least expensive cities in the US. While the city of Buffalo has its problems the suburbs of Amherst, Hamburg & Orchard Park are rated among the best in the nation, the schools in those towns are top notch & each has area's that are very affordable.
Many leading economist's predict that Buffalo metro between now & 2040 will flat line at approximately 1.1 - 1.2 million (which is close to where it stands today). Blue collar type workers are still leaving in hopes of finding factory jobs in the south & until the area finds a way to attract more manufacturing to move to Buffalo this is a trend that isn't going to change. On the other hand many local companies are now recruiting people to come to Buffalo for white collar, education & medical positions. In 2006 health, education & business type jobs grew by over 50K. I also believe that in the coming years WNY will see a huge surge in green technologies as the area sits in a very strategic location for this.
Last edited by jblake78728; 06-26-2009 at 11:31 AM..
I am optimistic that Buffalo's metro area will grow slowly over the next decade. There are just too many other places in the country that have become too expensive to live. At least Buffalo is not sprawled out like L.A. or Phoenix.
Buffalo itself will probably not eclipse 500,000 again (300,000 is a better target if at all possible) but it will probably be seeing some new people move in in the near future. I reckon the population will stay around 280,000 for a while.
It's bottomed out for the most part. By 2015, the population will not be below 270,000 I can assure you of that. If anything, we will stay in the ballpark we are in now, and go from there. There have been thousands of people moving downtown in the past decade, let's hope it continues and we might stop shuffling the cards and start to rise once more. Let's see what the 2010 census has to say first, Canerican.
Judging the city of Buffalo's population without accounting for the whole metro area is very unfair as many that have left Buffalo have merely relocated to the outlying suburbs
False, the only suburbs that are growing are Amherst and Clarence (Amherst by about 1% in 10 years, Clarence by about 7%, or 4000 residents)
Check the stats of any suburb, I just linked to them here... people are not in fact leaving for the suburbs, unless you consider Charlotte a suburb.
Quote:
Many leading economist's predict that Buffalo metro between now & 2040 will flat line at approximately 1.1 - 1.2 million
Which economists? Again, what I have found directly contradicts your findings
Quote:
Whether the overall downward trend in Buffalo’s population will continue, level off or be reversed is a matter of informed speculation. Population estimates for 2010 and 2020 prepared by the Mayor’s Office of Strategic Planning based on a straight-line extrapolation of the 1990-2000 trend suggest that the city’s population may continue to decline to 250,000 or lower before growth resumes.
Note, that in the chart below scenario A was given an 87% chance of success, B an 11% chance.
Let's see what the 2010 census has to say first, Canerican.
Well the estimates are already out at about 270,000. Of course an estimate isn't exact, but the Census estimates, as far as I have read are noted for their accuracy.
Woods & Poole Economics Inc., a Washington demographics firm, has developed a computer model that predicts there will be 1,135,260 people living in Erie and Niagara counties in 2040, which is only 15,000 above the estimated population for January 2009.
“That’s a very tiny gain for 30 years,” says Martin Holdrich, a Woods & Poole senior economist. “Buffalo isn’t expected to attract large numbers of people, but there shouldn’t be a large outmigration, either. Basically, we’re calling for 0 percent growth.”
False, the only suburbs that are growing are Amherst and Clarence (Amherst by about 1% in 10 years, Clarence by about 7%, or 4000 residents)
Check the stats of any suburb, I just linked to them here... people are not in fact leaving for the suburbs, unless you consider Charlotte a suburb.
First of all I never said people weren't moving south. As for people relocating to the suburbs that was in reference more to the 60's, 70's, 80's & to a lessor extent the 90's (which was when Buffalo's population "freefall" actually happened). The point was that the metro area as a whole is not doing as bad as the city of Buffalo, in fact most of my neighbors in Hamburg are from other parts of NY, Ohio & PA ....... but I see that went right over your head.
First of all I never said people weren't moving south. As for people relocating to the suburbs that was in reference more to the 60's, 70's, 80's & to a lessor extent the 90's
You say one thing, I call you on it, and you change your story, you never said that it was a reference, you made it sound like it was happening right now.
I'm not going to split hairs over what the word freefall means, but when your city is the forth fastest in terms of population loss (currently), I would say that is pretty close to a freefall.
But here you go again. The city of Buffalo has lost 23,000 since 2000, the MSA has lost about 54,000. Yes, the suburbs are declining nearly as quickly as the city, not even close to what you have claimed. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY MSA Population and Components of Change
You still never told me which leading economists claimed that Buffalo's population would be stagnant, then grow.
I'm not expecting that you can provide me with one, but could you give a source for this?
Quote:
In 2006 health, education & business type jobs grew by over 50K
Population Growth of Upstate NY Counties from 1970 to 2007.
Red ~ Population Loss
Blue ~ Population Gain
Yes, I am the weird one for wanting to leave, along with 200,000 of my friends. You guys better stop encouraging people that don't like Buffalo such as myself to leave, you are doing too good of a job.
Every time I say that something in Buffalo needs to change, you all say that I need to leave. One member even offered me $100 to leave (which he hasn't and won't make good on, but that is fine, I would have have donated the money to the NRA anyway)
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