Affordable Places to Raise a Family in California. Any left? (Orange: houses, tech job)

[Charles]

Originally Posted by etozion

My topic is not for advertisement of ‘leftovers’: Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, etc., but to find affordable ‘pockets’ in California. In the state a lot of us moved out, but may move back if …

You're right. We sort of did go off topic. Our bad.

[alexanderinn]

right now, there are great deals on homes. Many people have second homes and due to the mortgage crisis, the market is flooded... i.e. great buys in great neighborhoods.

Al

[Mod] website removed [/Mod]

[vegaspilgrim]

I just read through the last couple of pages on this thread. The "leftovers" vs. out-of-state question may have been a digression, but I think this "digression" is extremely interesting. I actually posted a similar question once, How does the Inland Empire region compare to Phoenix? Maybe one way to think of it is to view California and the western US as "tiers," with each successive tier representing a degree of separation from the core areas of California:
Tier 1: coastal southern California and San Francisco Bay area
Tier 2: Central Valley, Inland Empire, Desert areas
Tier 3: Neighboring cities in the next two states over: Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, Reno (see my thread What do Californians think about Phoenix and Las Vegas?)
Tier 4: The entire western US: especially WA, OR, AZ, NV, CO
Tier 5: Texas, North Carolina, etc
Tier 6: Midwest/east coast.

[Sir Barton]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

There are a lot of places like Clovis, Modesto, Stockton, Victorville, etc... where it is cheaper to live.

Cheaper to live? Who cares. They would not be happy in Modesto or Stockton. These two towns are total dumps and full of illegal aliens. No thinking family would move there.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by Sir Barton

Cheaper to live? Who cares. They would not be happy in Modesto or Stockton. These two towns are total dumps and full of illegal aliens. No thinking family would move there.

Yes, that is exactly my point. I refused to move to one of California's armpit towns just to be able to afford a home - No thank you! That is why I am much happier living out of state now with my family than in one of those places. The crime, gangs, meth labs, pollution, heat, long commutes, etc... just doesn't make it worth IMO. Quality of life takes a big dive. Of course I am sure some people love it in there. But I can think of better ways to spend my childrens' formative years.

For those looking for something 'relatively' affordable in a nicer environment for families there are still some 'pockets' in California. But as stated before these are for the most part away from larger ecomonic centers along the coast - the Sierra Foothills for example.

[etozion]

My model of “overseas” - “leftovers” - “pockets” is for mid-class family folks who linked to jobs that usually provided by larger economic areas. For such people the quality of life is very important factor. First of all, they feel that in their status they suppose to afford it. Second, they have in their lives someone very precious, that they feel obligated to take good care of.
Places like Modesto, Stockton, etc. for most such people may not fit the model.

During this conversation I made one radical conclusion: for described above class of people the only possible future left in California is a ‘pocket’. If income is very high it’s gonna be a ‘pocket’ within a large urban area, for example, Brentwood, Palos Verdes, Marine County, … If income is average it will be outer place like Thousand Oaks, South OC, Northern San Diego, … If longer commute is not an issue or you can work from home some small charming towns are the right ‘pockets’. The possibility of each ‘pocket’ will depend from fluctuating factors of personal income and real estate prices. Anyway, this is the only game left in California, IMO.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by etozion

If income is average it will be outer place like Thousand Oaks, South OC, ....

The thing is, median income is about $60K +/- 10%. Median house price (in TO & OC) is like $600K +/- 10%. That's is the whole point of this thread.

A lot of people are expecting those median house prices to change.

[jkbatca]

Originally Posted by Charles

The thing is, median income is about $60K +/- 10%. Median house price (in TO & OC) is like $600K +/- 10%. That's is the whole point of this thread.

Exactly. I live in Ventura county, and, sorry, there is NO place in Ventura county that is (a) near the ocean, (b) affordable on $60-80K, and (c) you would want to live in. Choose 2 of the 3. Renting costs are horrible (trust me, I know, as my in-laws have rental property).

If you want to live in TO, you're looking at 600K even today. You better be sitting on some big time equity or pile of cash to get a house in TO, especially in today's lending environment. Ojai is _not_ any better, BTW. The closest you can get and meet all three criteria is actually in LA county in Santa Clarita [//www.city-data.com/city/Santa-Clarita-California.html]. That's about 45 min. to the beach, which is a lot closer than AZ!

Despite all the sub-prime horror stories, housing prices near the coast (at least in Ventura Co) are falling at a slower rate. Maybe a year or two + some deepening recession will make these (my house included! ) more affordable, but by that time, there will not be any jobs!!!

[etozion]

Yes, I remember those times when Ventura co. was relatively low priced, mostly due to the luck of good pay jobs. Ojai became an “artist ghetto” for escapees from LA.

The most strong real estate markets rise first and fall last. This is the law. Even in 1997 low house prices in places like Santa Barbara, Carmel, … were $350K-$400K. Therefore, you cannot expect such areas to fall below $400K-$500K range in current downturn cycle. It’s still too high.

[MtnSurfer]

Yes, I think it is delusional to expect places like Santa Barbara, Carmel, Palos Verdes, San Jose, etc... to even drop in price enough to be considered 'affordable.' Those places contain some of the most desireable real estate in the nation and world for that matter. So even during market slumps they are never going to be really low.

But if someone can time the market pretty well and somehow get in there it will prove to be a good investment over the long haul as demand will always exist.

I have a friend who bought a nice home in Palos Verdes when it was more affordable, not cheap, and now he is set. He is right next to a golf course with views of the ocean. He has no reason to ever want to move. But if he ever does cash out it will definately be good for him.