01-15-2009, 05:59 PM
Location: West Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
OC Investor2
It was before my time here, but I have heard that much of So Cal real estate boomed in the 80's, yet the people kept coming.
Which is why housing costs got ridiculous. Spot on.
There is still a huge draw to California, its just that peoiple can't afford it. Hence you get placing like Vegas, Phoenix, and Denver growing to what they have grown to. They are just wannabe Substitute California.
01-15-2009, 06:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
sheri257
Yeah, California housing prices did start to get higher during the mid '70s but ... not that high. The out migration really started with the recession of the early '90s which ...
Not coincidentally, was when housing prices really started to take off far above the national median ... as this chart shows.
http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-conten...5_medianus.gif
Since the '90s ... California housing prices have never really gotten back to anything resembling the rest of the country.
So all of those other things could play into it but ... the bottom line is still housing prices.
I'm gonna have to disagree w/ you on this one. Your chart shows the CA median home price rising to double the US median during the 1980's, yet people continued to come during this period. This would disprove the notion that in/out migration is driven by real estate prices.
As you mentioned, California has been experiencing an out-migration of US citizens since the reccession in the early 1990's. Something changed from that point on. Could it by the loss of middle class jobs? "White flight" from growing immagration? Lower economic growth?
Probably some mixture of all of these. It may have been abetted by the housing cost issue, but I doubt its the driver. More importantly, I don't think if/when housing prices correct & level out it's going to solve this states economic issues and people will begin coming back.
01-15-2009, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
vdy1985
Which is why housing costs got ridiculous. Spot on.
Thats a little bit of a "california -centric" view.
From the 50's to the 80's many of the peple who left the northeast & rustbelt came west to CA. Starting in the 1990's, they began going to other places in the sunbelt. And apparently they were joined by many former Californians as well. Maybe we should consider that there are other reasons for them to have turned away from CA besides that fact "They could'nt afford it"
You make California sound like the aging starlet dumped for a younger beauty who sticks her nose in the air & says "well, he was'nt good enough for me anyway"
01-15-2009, 06:29 PM
Location: Irvine, CA to Keller, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
sheri257
People can say the out migration is happening for all of these other reasons but, the bottom line is housing prices. When prices go up ... more people move. When housing prices are down, less people move.
What the article fails to mention is that the net out-migration has dropped by half just in the last two years. Not, coincidentally with the 40 percent drop in housing prices.
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/20...charts_2_3.pdf
At the peak of the housing boom from 2005-2006 up to 285,000 people were leaving the state. Now, with the real estate crash, it's down to 144,000.
In 2001 ... before housing prices got really crazy ....the out migration was only 39,000 people.
There's a direct correlation with housing prices. The lower they go, the less people leave.
What the article fails to mention is that the net out-migration has dropped by half just in the last two years. Not, coincidentally with the 40 percent drop in housing prices.
The net out-migration slowed because unlike us they missed the boat and could not sell their homes anymore and make enough to make it worth leaving. That is why less people left. They are now waiting for their homes to appreciate once again so they can sell and leave.
01-15-2009, 06:43 PM
Location: Irvine, CA to Keller, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
vfrpilot
Sheri wrote:
Do you actually believe that millions of folks are not in their right mind? I know lots of folks here in CO that would never consider living in CA, even though they've lived there and could well afford to live just about anywhere they want. I get the fact you love CA and can totally understand your position, but people have different priorities that will change during their lives. What I don't get is why you say that if you live in TX or CO you must be poor or crazy. But I guess it's all relative. I guess I'm not in my right mind or delusional as someone else said. I guess I'm just kidding myself to actually enjoy living outside of CA. I glad you have opened my eyes
I have a friend that is retired here in TX and goes to CA, Florida, and Europe each for 2 weeks during the year. He is always glad to be back home in Austin TX. He raised his family for the most part in Irvine, CA but left when the timing was right and never looked back.
01-15-2009, 07:02 PM
Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
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Frankly, when I was living in Sherman Oaks in the early 90s, I felt like the only non-jewish white dude in the valley! In Van Nuys I felt really out of place and this was 15 years ago!
I know a California native; happily married Firefighter (wife CA native also) and Father of three 20 something kids living in
Port Orange - FLORIDA . He moved his family there 1988, happy ever after since. He was raised in Gardon Grove in OC as he spoke so fondly growing up in OC in the 60s/70s. He loves Port Orange and he says
"Port Orange is Orange County 30 years ago. He also added "the humidity is good... keeps this place from being another Orange County... and if we had no humidity then Port Orange would be just like Orange County is right now or worse."
01-15-2009, 07:06 PM
1,831 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
OC Investor2
I'm gonna have to disagree w/ you on this one. Your chart shows the CA median home price rising to double the US median during the 1980's, yet people continued to come during this period. This would disprove the notion that in/out migration is driven by real estate prices.
Not really. Prices did rise through the '80s but the big price spike was in 1988-89. The out migration started in 1991-1992.
It's not like people suddenly decide to pack up and move over night. It would logically take a couple of years for the new high price thresholds to have an impact.
01-15-2009, 07:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Soccersupporter
The net out-migration slowed because unlike us they missed the boat and could not sell their homes anymore and make enough to make it worth leaving. That is why less people left. They are now waiting for their homes to appreciate once again so they can sell and leave.
Again, if that was true then why was out migration down to measily 40,000 people in 2001?
Lots of people could have sold their homes then ... The market had fully recovered and prices were up steadily for five years since 1996.
Home depreciation back then was unlikely. But homes were more affordable which is why more people stayed.
01-15-2009, 07:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Soccersupporter
He raised his family for the most part in Irvine, CA but left when the timing was right and never looked back.
Which begs the question ... why are you guys looking back? Seems like we've got more California ex-pats posting here than California residents.
I used to live in Texas but I don't care enough to post in your forums every day ... that's for sure.
Are you guys a little homesick by any chance? Because it seems like you're trying to convince yourselves that you made the right move ... more than anyone else.
01-15-2009, 08:08 PM
Location: Avondale, AZ
1,225 posts, read
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Quote:
The net out-migration slowed because unlike us they missed the boat and could not sell their homes anymore and make enough to make it worth leaving. That is why less people left. They are now waiting for their homes to appreciate once again so they can sell and leave.
In my little sphere of societal contacts, this is the exact situation. Californians sold their 40 y/o tract home on a postage-stamp lot for a bazzilion bucks and move to wherever and buy macmansions for cash, or if they're smart, buy something more practical and have a wad of cash to cushion any economic disasters, or just to feel a bit more secure in a life without debt. A life, I might add, that is a lot slower, with great schools for our daughter, and lots of pine trees
. I see a lot of remarks about how Californians have driven the property values up everywhere due to this scenario. They could only do this if the CA RE market was hitting on all cylinders. I don't think this will play out again for a while. In fact there has been some observations on the CO forum that the plunging CA market will finally slow the CA transplants. Just observations that right or wrong don't mean a whole lot.
If the reduction in home prices mean ppl want to stay put, wouldn't that increase the number of homes sold to those folks?
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Median household income ($) - Black or African American
Median household income ($) - Asian
Median household income ($) - Hispanic or Latino
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Races - White alone (%)
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Races - American Indian alone (%)
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Races - Other race alone (%)
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Racial diversity
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Unemployment (%) - White
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Population - Females (%) - Asian
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Mean house or condo value by units in structure by units in structure - 3 or 4 ($)
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Occupied housing units (%)
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Poverty status for native-born residents (%)
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Poverty among high school graduates not in families (%)
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1996 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Clinton)
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1996 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
2000 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Gore)
2000 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Republican Party (Bush)
2000 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
2004 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Kerry)
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2012 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Obama)
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2012 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Other
2016 Presidential Elections Results (%) - Democratic Party (Clinton)
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Educational Attainment - No schooling completed (%)
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Median number of rooms in houses and condos
Median number of rooms in apartments
Housing units lacking complete plumbing facilities (%)
Housing units lacking complete kitchen facilities (%)
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Urban houses (%)
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Mean number of vehichles in owner occupied houses
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Mortgage status - with mortgage (%)
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Average family size
Average family size - White
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
Geographical mobility - Moved within same county (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 2 (%)
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Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
Housing units in structures - 50 or more (%)
Housing units in structures - Mobile home (%)
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House/condo owner moved in on average (years ago)
Renter moved in on average (years ago)
Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1999 to March 2000 (%)
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Means of transportation to work - Drove car alone (%)
Means of transportation to work - Carpooled (%)
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Working at home (%)
Industry diversity
Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining (%)
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Occupation diversity
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People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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