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I think it's a great move by Harper. We need diversify our exports away from the US and it's time to establish trade relationships with one of the world's biggest economies.
A lot of people talk about the human rights issue in China. It's a big issue but people have realize there's nothing we can do about it.
People need understand that trade with China helps the everyday people (who are innocent on the regime's terrible human rights record) more than it helps the Chinese government. If we were to stop trading with China and impose economic sanctions then we would simply:
1. Hurt the workers who rely on exports for a living.
2. Force China to trade with other dictatorships and make the Chinese society even less open.
Look at Cuba. The US has stopped trading with the country ever since Castro took over in the '60s. It hasn't done anything except make Cuba seek the USSR as an ally. The people has gotten poorer and there's no sign of any reforms. Punishments don't work; they simply harden the regime's control of its people.
Finally, we have to be practical. Trade with China is going to boost jobs in the many sectors (forestry, mining, gas, tourism and etc.). We need those jobs.
Most people aren't against trade with China, they know it makes us both wealthier. But we need to be careful, and that's why people have issues with the pipeline. Beijing doesn't care if BC gets ruined with oil as long as their interests are met. The risks involved from sending that dirty oil to Kitimat far outweigh the potential gains. Those waters are insanely dangerous for shipping and a ship will run aground, just a question of when. The economic effects of that spill, and the spills along the pipeline which would ruin salmon runs, would cost our economy more than the meagre few jobs this would bring to Kitimat. I'm all for trading with China, big believer in it, but not of selling out our true interests to do it. I'm fine with giving them natural gas, oil from existing pipelines to Vancouver; all of it. But we need to understand they aren't necessarily looking out for our best interests and they will play dirty (through for example influencing officials as CSIS has reported they have) if it benefits them. We should play with China, but we should play smart.
Mexico is the fourth largest source of oil for the US (after the US, Canada and Saudi Arabia) but its oil reserves are declining rapidly and a lot of it has to do with the Cantarel oil field where production is at the lowest level since the 1990's. How is the US going to replace those 1M bpd of oil imports when Mexico runs out in over a decade. The US is going to eventually accept Alberta's oil especially considering it was relying on shale gas from Marcellus which only has about a third as much gas as it originally estimated.
Venezuela leads opec in reserves and Venezuela is a friend of Iran. The dispute with Iran could cause opec to lower crude output below 30 mbpd.
Goldman Sachs says oil prices could rise to $140 in 2012. A lot of US oil reserves have already been dumped onto the market in an effort to lower the price.
Don't think that the oil pipeline is bad. Canada has to build one to the west coast if it wants to develop export markets in Asia. China isn't the only country in Asia. 90% of global oil reserves outside opec are in Canada and the US wants to reduce reliance on risky sources (middle easy by 75% by 2020). Canadian oil will be in demand by both the US and Asia but Canada has to diversify.
The hybrid vehicle market (hybrid cars run on as much as 85% oil) is growing faster than the one for electric cars. Whether Canada diversifies or not the US will eventually be forced to build a major pipeline to connect it to Alberta. The reason why Alberta cares so much about having it built now is because Canada needs America's refining capacity. It's been 35 years since Canada built a new refinery.
I think the general consensus is the pipeline will eventually be built to the US. If it looks like President Obama "pushed" Canada into building a pipeline across the Rockies to the West Coast for export by tanker to China (in the name of environmentalism!) it will be squarely on Obama's shoulders. Republicans will pounce and if gas hits $4/gallon he will be the person blamed, every time an American fills their tank he will be cursed.
As for oil pipelines to US and to BC coast, I say Yes to both.
IMO Kinda hypocritical to condem these pipelines.
If the truth be told there's a whole network of pipelines crisscrossing
north america already.
The world still runs on oil, I wish it didn't, maybe someday it won't
but right now it does.
People are worried about a potential oil spill on BC coast,
I do too, but there already is oil being shipped in the region.
From the southern terminus of the Alaska pipeline in Valdez, Alaska.
Tankers then head south down the coast of BC.
All I can say is the oil has to come from somewhere and it might as well be from Canada as opposed to some OPEC cartel country.
The reason why Alberta cares so much about having it built now is because Canada needs America's refining capacity. It's been 35 years since Canada built a new refinery.
Alberta cares b/c there is a glut of Canadian heavy crude in PADD II (Midwest).
Supply glut = price depression.
Alberta cares b/c there is a glut of Canadian heavy crude in PADD II (Midwest).
Supply glut = price depression.
US oil prices up 19% in 2011. Oil producers are not complaining about the prices.
Refinery margins are improving and that's causing refineries to increase capacity. Canadian producers need access to those refineries.
Refinery margins are improving and that's causing refineries to increase capacity. Canadian producers need access to those refineries.
That's right.
Right now there is no easy access to PADD III.
There is an oversupply of Canadian heavy crude in PADD II.
DilBit is heavily discounted.
If this price depression could be alleviated, producers would benefit greatly.
"PADD III is particularly attractive given the size and complexity of the refineries. Western Canadian crude oil, particularly bitumen blends, could compete in this market with imports from Venezuela and Mexico, particularly since it has recently been heavily discounted in the U.S. Midwest. Increased demand in this market would likely result in higher netbacks for Canadian heavy producers for two reasons: first, it would take volumes away from the Midwest market; and second, it could move the pricing parity point of heavy sour further south where Canadian heavy crudes would compete against other heavy oil imports." http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnr...152006-eng.pdf
I think it's good for Canada.
A Prime Minister of Canada with balls to stand up to the President of the United States
and flirt with an "enemy" of the US.
Trudeau was another one like that. Trudeau cozying up with Castro was lolz worthy.
What did Obama expect?
For Harper to sit with his hands on the sands and wait like a good little Canadian until after the American election?
At last somebody wants to diversify our dependency on the US economy. We need a stable partner when it comes to dealing with Canada's energy resources, because they are rather vast and greatly contribute to our GDP.
And if US Senate and White House cannot agree if they want our crude, whether is because they find it "dirty" or they are afraid it would leave US (hence they would only have all the risks with the possible spill disasters but no benefit at all), I say - let the Chinese have it!
Thumbs up, Mr Prime Minister!
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