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Mikey - I found the house we want in Providence Downs! Let's see if my 280k offer is accepted! Nice to see how the rich live!
I see what you mean with Somerset/Hunter Oaks - really nice communities that are finished that offer a great yard and a good house value for your $ with access to Blakeney which is an awesome shopping center and I enjoy business dinners at Firebirds in Stonecrest. Lawson = NICE house for $ but you are a little out there - the Harris Teeter and Lowes nearby are nice and it's not a terrible commute to Blakeney/Stonecrest. I think if we wait and look hard enough either will offer an awesome house for 280k. Though we haven't ruled out Indian Trail - the lack of things to do there (except for some of my favorite golf courses) are starting to become more and more apparent.
I never thought about my future kids going to school with kids from Mansions - wonder if that would make them more snobby or feel less privileged even though they live in a nice house? At least they would be able to say they're grandparents are loaded.
Thanks for your advice - you know the area and developments very well. Any other communities that haven't made the list yet?
I agree that housing will continue to drop, but 50%? I don't see BOA or Wellscovia deserting Charlotte, more likely a cut in the # of jobs and/or payroll cuts via laying-off/re-hiring would be a more likely scenario. I see a possible 20% drop caused by tight lending practices and companies not hiring while they try to figure out just how much Obama-care is going to cost them in 5 years on top of the trouble they are having predicting what the economy is going to do. A 10-15% depreciation is more likely IMO, which is how we are really looking at houses now - 325,000 really means 275000-285000.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumbollo
Mikey, IMO, it's probable that real estate prices are going to drop an additional 50% before this mess is done. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. The big risk locally, and an unknown, is exactly what will happen to BofA and Wells. Cut off the continuous flow of federal support and unfair laws that are to their benefit and they are in a lot of trouble. This will hit house prices pretty hard here.
What continuous flow of federal support? Please explain that. It's all been repaid.
First, all the banks did was to borrow the money from the Fed to pay back the Treasury. None of these banks have earned that kind of money. In any case that was just window dressing as to what is really going on and it's beyond the scope of this topic.
When I said that prices were may fall another 50%, I wasn't including BofA and Wells. That will be an additional haircut to Charlotte. I recommend that anyone go back and look at the Observer or any other mainstream news article, citing economists, from late 2008 and early 2009. They were all, almost without exception repeating the nonsense that we would be in full "recovery" by the middle of 2010. It's not the first time I have said this, but recovery to exactly what? A over heated economy based on endless cheap credit that was being invested in real estate in a vast ponzi like scheme? I don't think so.
What continuous flow of federal support? Please explain that. It's all been repaid.
It's really funny actually... They like to give this impression that they "paid" it back. But look at these company's earnings that report having paid back the bailout "ahead of schedule". They haven't earned the money - they just shifted the debt around using fancy accounting. Think Enron.
Imagine you borrowed money from a friend to pay back money you borrowed from another friend... You paid it back!
Try to sneak in to Longview - then bring her through Providence Downs and Providence Downs South, finally circle around through Kingsmead and then take her back into Hunter Oaks again. I'm not really "zomg the best ever!!ONE11!!" about Somerset or Hunter Oaks - but they offer the best possible bang for the buck location wise in Union County IMO. Reaview / Marvin Ridge schools with no possible way they can rezone unless they go crazy and change the county lines - easy access to Blakeney and Stonecrest which have awesome retail / restaurants / etc - Rea Rd construction already completed while Providence construction still going on and a busier road anyway. Yet, still reasonable access to Providence Rd areas like the Arboretum.
On the flip side, you WILL get more house for your money in Lawson for sure or anywhere out into Cuthbertson. The extra distance makes the difference. Also consider you'll find less of the Firethorn, Longview, Woodhall, Sedgefield, Kingsmead, Providence Downs South, Bridle Estates, etc $1m+ McMansion neighborhoods down in Cuthbertson... To some people it makes a difference about who their kids are going to school with. Take a drive through the other neighborhoods I listed. When you hit Stonegate, drive through Champion Forest which is right next door - that neighborhood used to be 500k+ only and now I see listings and closing in the high 300s... Probably still out of your price range, but just for perspective. Heck they may come down far enough for you. You'll see Cuthbertson Middle/High school right across the street.
From the wife,
Mikey, I realize your an equal opportunity community basher...LOL. But last I checked Champion Forest lowest priced home was $369,000. Which is very low compared to a few years ago. The $369 home listed is on a terrible lot IMO. It was owned by Niblock up until about a year and a half ago or so. Niblock could not unload it due to the lot. So they in turn sold it for a very reasonable price. Beautiful home 4 sided brick 3 car garage but you couldn't give me that home for free due to the lot.
I'll never say never b/c who knows what will happen in the months to come. But I can't see most of the homes selling in CF for $280. Of course, there can always be short-sales or foreclosures for that price. But I pray it won't get that low for any community that was once selling in the very high 4's to the low to mid 5's.
As far as the Mcmansion communites....they are beautiful no doubt about that. But when you drive by check out the scenery...several homes in PD and PDS are empty. Especially PDS never lived in. And some not all of those homeowners are the "full-garage, empty bank account mentality."
We have been keeping a close eye on PD for short-sale/foreclosure at a great price. There have been some real good homes out there. One recently was listed in low 5's but it's appraised value was in the 7's. It was either a short sale or foreclosure; can't remember. That home was under contract in about 4 days.
From the wife,
Mikey, I realize your an equal opportunity community basher...LOL. But last I checked Champion Forest lowest priced home was $369,000. Which is very low compared to a few years ago. The $369 home listed is on a terrible lot IMO. It was owned by Niblock up until about a year and a half ago or so. Niblock could not unload it due to the lot. So they in turn sold it for a very reasonable price. Beautiful home 4 sided brick 3 car garage but you couldn't give me that home for free due to the lot.
I'll never say never b/c who knows what will happen in the months to come. But I can't see most of the homes selling in CF for $280. Of course, there can always be short-sales or foreclosures for that price. But I pray it won't get that low for any community that was once selling in the very high 4's to the low to mid 5's.
As far as the Mcmansion communites....they are beautiful no doubt about that. But when you drive by check out the scenery...several homes in PD and PDS are empty. Especially PDS never lived in. And some not all of those homeowners are the "full-garage, empty bank account mentality."
We have been keeping a close eye on PD for short-sale/foreclosure at a great price. There have been some real good homes out there. One recently was listed in low 5's but it's appraised value was in the 7's. It was either a short sale or foreclosure; can't remember. That home was under contract in about 4 days.
I agree Champion Forest is very nice and I was mostly recommending driving through since you're right next door at Stonegate. According to carolinahome, below are the most recent closings in CF... They're commonly selling in the 300s and I would venture to guess that those closings last year are even further depressed in value.
The very high 4s to 500s you mention is a tough price point around here... so much competition. Two long time foreclosures in PD finally closed and I listed them below. I know they're distressed, but getting into that development in the low 3s is crazy. I'm a fan of the John Wieland product and Weddington Chase is seeing homes below 500k list now and closing in the high 400s. There's tremendous pressure for that 500ish point - deals are to be had and I don't see any reason to believe they won't get better. The shadow inventory you mention (vacant homes) is a big part of this and what people forget about when they just look at list prices in a neighborhood... They think the list prices define the price point for some reason. I just don't agree with that at all.
In the short term, homes are certainly going to sell... 2 homes closed in PDS for 900k this month. But, over the longer term I think we're just going to see more and more reductions.
From the wife,
Mikey, I do agree with you on most of your points.
Some of the "smaller" homes in CF are selling for the the mid-high 3's and for people that need out before having to foreclose. Some you listed were owned by the relocation companies of the previous residents and IMO they took the best offer. The square footage differs in some homes in the community. So for everyone's sake in all communities hopefully people are taking that in to consideration. Right now there are 2 homes listed I believe in the high 4's-mid 5's. I am very doubtful they are going to sell for that price. They've been on the market for some time now and it just isn't going to happen. For that amount of money at this time I would be looking elsewhere for that price point.
Realize too, that some homes in PD are about 3,000-3500 sq. feet. I have a few friends that live in those "smaller homes"...as they call it. So those home values will be less than the mcmansions.
I do agree it will get worse before there is any type of improvement with the housing market.
Mikey you will have to let us know where you buy a home...this way we can post stastics about your community and bash it....sorry just my Jersey attitude coming out....I do enjoy reading your post. I like to educate myself on the area and whether the posts are positive or negative it keeps you on your toes.
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