Economic forecasters: Outlook is murky for Charlotte's recovery......(CO article) (Washington: 2014, credit)
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When local government employment declines every year for the last 20 years from May to June and June to July it should make you start thinking.
My last bet is that in September the unemployment rate will 'miraculously' drop back to 10.5% for the Charlotte MSA. In fact the unemployment rate probably did not materially change from May to June if you run Census X-12 ARIMA on the data series.
The numbers don't support your assertion. You claim that all the teachers in the MSA, my estimate is 10,000 teachers, left the "labor force" in June and then re-entered in September. Yet the "Labor Force" only dropped by 1000 in the MSA when it should have dropped by far more than that, and last September it dropped by 6000 when your theory says it should have risen.
Sorry, you are completely wrong about the current unemployment rate being affected by school summer vacation. The law is definitive. The unemployment rate is rising tin this area because the economy is bad and people are losing their jobs.
Shouldn't the title of this post be "Outlook for THIS COUNTRY is murky and not just Charlotte"? Charlotte isn't alone...
That title would cause this thread to be off topic, and posters in this thread are doing a great job keeping this thread on topic discussing Charlotte.
Things WILL get better. They always do. Recessions come and go. If they did not go then they could not come back now could they?
It is all about confidence and the more we all believe things will get better then they will. If we all sit about moping and saying that things cannot possible get worse then, they probably will.
This is the glass half full / empty discussion.
My glass is now half empty. Ah ha I heard you say, a pessimist. Well, my glass was full and It have already had one snort out of it so I'm feeling pretty good right now and I know that I can refill it again. I am confident.
OK so you build a new office block before a recession. You cannot let it during the recession. Maybe the company that built it went bust. So what. At the end of the recession there is a new and now fairly low cost building ready for occupancy at the end of the recession.
Think good thoughts people. Yes it is hard now and maybe we are headed for another downturn, maybe not. I certainly hope not. However survivors survive and we SHALL get through this.
I am not in the camp of thinking there is "no hope" for Charlotte and nothing I've said should imply that to anyone who reads my posts. I have said consistently however that Charlotte has some significant issues because its primary industry, Finance (banking,investment,etc), is very troubled because this is the industry that has destroyed our economy either directly or indirectly and now our government is printing money and taking on unprecedented amounts of debt to maintain the status quo. The big banks are the biggest welfare recipients in this nation's history and everything that happens related to this, affects Charlotte much more than most cities. This is going to also affect every industry that is directly dependent upon this status quo. In Charlotte this would be real estate construction so anyone contemplating a new build should seriously sit down and assess if this is the right time to buy into this mess.
When that bubble pops because either the American people and/or the rest of the world won't tolerate it anymore, it's going to be tough times for Charlotte which has depended on this industry for at least 25 years. However keep in mind that Charlotte is over 240 years old so this period is a small part of this city's history. Anyone who understands this knows that it's quite possible that we may be somewhere else even better in the future, but that is going to depend upon this city first recognizing and accepting that change is coming and second that solutions are going to come locally and not through grand plans put forth by the state and federal governments. Otherwise the city just becomes another welfare case standing in line with a lot of other failed cities.
(BTW, Gold crossed $1700 last night. This is a new historical high. The reason it's important to this is because gold represents the anti-dollar and thus anti-Banking.)
Last edited by yantosh22; 08-08-2011 at 05:02 AM..
I guess I've always been the "glass is half full" kind of person. While things haven't been great in Charlotte from an economic standpoint over the last 3 years, it's been a blessing because it's forcing the city to do some much needed refocusing on diversifying the economy. You look at all the jobs that have been brought in or created in the Energy and Healthcare fields for example. Charlotte will always have a primary focus on Finance, but it doesn't mean it can't be a magnet for other industries. I do have to wonder about the people who do nothing but think there is no hope for Charlotte (we are not Detroit or Las Vegas)... If you have a kid, who's an 'A' student, that all of the sudden gets a 'C' on his or her report card? Do you tell them, "well, it's inevitable that it's not your last 'C' and a 'D' or 'F' is probably the next thing coming your way" ? Or do you instead try to make a positive out of it? Hopefully it's the latter.
...... If you have a kid, who's an 'A' student, that all of the sudden gets a 'C' on his or her report card? Do you tell them, "well, it's inevitable that it's not your last 'C' and a 'D' or 'F' is probably the next thing coming your way" ? Or do you instead try to make a positive out of it? Hopefully it's the latter.
Of course you don't tell a kid this. But kind of reasoning is a logical fallacy called a red herring. As I said earlier, Charlotte's road to success in the future isn't coming from government, i.e. the example of taking tax money and handing it over to corporations to create a few token jobs. And it's future success isn't coming until people accept that there are real fundamental problems that are not going to go away without real concrete solutions that are addressed by more than metaphors.
We are not talking about how much water is in your glass. We are talking about how to plug up the hole in the bottom of the glass that is causing it to drain out.
We should probably keep an eye on Bank of America as it relates to Charlotte... how many do they employ here?
Stock in the $7 range now - real trouble on the CDS / foreclosure front with penalties coming. The bank is simply insolvent due to the Countrywide disaster. If we don't see TARP2, they're going to have to basically go in and split that piece of their business off into some type of receivership.
So I don't know about losing the finance industry in general (bit too doomer for me)... the world is run on credit. But I do see BAC needing to do something while they still have that TBTF category going for them.
Of course you don't tell a kid this. But kind of reasoning is a logical fallacy called a red herring. As I said earlier, Charlotte's road to success in the future isn't coming from government, i.e. the example of taking tax money and handing it over to corporations to create a few token jobs. And it's future success isn't coming until people accept that there are real fundamental problems that are not going to go away without real concrete solutions that are addressed by more than metaphors.
We are not talking about how much water is in your glass. We are talking about how to plug up the hole in the bottom of the glass that is causing it to drain out.
I don't think city and county leaders are depending on the government for anything (or really have) when it comes to creating or expanding on the current/new business industry or environment; or wasting time spewing useless metophors. They're WORKING hard to re-brand Charlotte, address the depleting technical workforce (re-training) and a multitude of issues with remaining competitive in a extremely volatile and uncertain period in American history.
There are fundamental problems, but WE (Americans) are resilient, and I too remain optimistic about our future. For those that lack historical perspective and constantly refer to the "good" ole days tend to cherrypick periods of past success while disregarding the pain and strife that occurred in parallel during those times.
I applaud Charlotte's unsung leaders of today and the past that work tirelessly to build a better place inspite of the negativity and constant opposition of many (who contribute nothing concrete but a slew of useless words eminating from keyboards).
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