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... Let's face it, I've seen enough here on this board to know the sentiments of the majority. I only win in this race if my bets on CLT real estate turn out to be winners. I don't win by trying to have those that oppose my viewpoint change their minds.
I am assuming from your post that you buy and sell real estate for a profit. Your viewpoint is going to be quite different than most of the people you meet especially on these forums. Most people will only buy a home to live in and that is a totally separate deal. i.e. you invest in real estate like others invest in stocks, commodities, etc. Buy low and sell high. The trick of course is to know when these happen. The ones who make money are the ones who get this timing right.
For people who have purchased a house to live in but didn't over do it and especially the ones who have paid for it and don't live on credit, this economy isn't a big deal. Losing a job doesn't mean losing your home. For the ones who have leveraged themselves to the hilt, then it is a different matter. I would suspect that some have been close to panic and cling to any word that things are going to be fine tomorrow. The media plays this up much as they can. The point of this is there are going to be a lot of emotion in discussions of where this economy is heading.
So to address the question that I think you really have, "is it a good time to invest in Charlotte real estate?", my opinion is NO. I don't think we are close to the bottom. The government hasn't addressed the real issues of what is wrong with the American economy and until it does, it's going to continue to slide. What has been done is to rob future generations to slow down the decline, and of course that has given many the impression the worst has passed. This is an opinion of course and we all know what those are worth.
John, you say you have a problem w/the 'negative' news that is out there right now for Charlotte.
Please give us specific examples with teeth on why the economy here will turn around in the next year or so? vs. why we will not bounce around the bottom for quite some time.
I understand your bias and how you have to make a profit on investments, however I see nothing in the short term that will indicate that things will improve.
Jack--if I used the word "problem" maybe it wasn't a good choice of words. My "problem" is I just can't sit back and follow the crowd. THat's not being pro-active in my business. So, what do I do. a) I take advantage of what could be the biggest opportunity to buy in history. "Could" is the operative word here...remember it's not a house I'm moving into. In your words, which BTW I love, I'm not "emotional about the house. I buy a house like a commodity. Factor in a dozen things I know about what I've been successful with and I buy the commodity. b) prices of houses are declining. Right...so I need to buy at a lower price point. Eighteen months ago I would buy a house at 60k. Sell at 110. Six months ago bought at 50k. Lowered my sell price to 100.
Last week I bought (albeit smaller than what I generally buy) a house at 36K.
I will sell that house in the next 3-4 months at 80K. I am certain. Two days later I bought my "usual " size, location, house at 46.5K So maybe, I'll need to sell it at 96-97 when it's done. Houses to me are nothing more than a trading vehicle.
c) I do not leverage. Unlike so many speculators that can't hang in, I don't take on any debt.
As far as a "specific example"...to give you. I can't. I'm doing this by my feel, instinct and what has worked for me for a lot of years. I cannot provide a set of charts or data that would suggest the news is not going to negative for the next 12 months, 18 months or forever. I'm taking a stand here that this is a lot of negative news and I am going to go full steam ahead with a contrary position.
^^^^^^ya know what, there is a lot to be said for experience and "gut". I admire John. And, he has done a lot for our community. So, maybe a little listening needs to be done from all of us...
^^^^^^ya know what, there is a lot to be said for experience and "gut". I admire John. And, he has done a lot for our community. So, maybe a little listening needs to be done from all of us...
No, CC I disagree. I'm not here to give a lesson, seriously. I am here to mearly state my opinion and what works for johne482.
Jack--if I used the word "problem" maybe it wasn't a good choice of words. My "problem" is I just can't sit back and follow the crowd. THat's not being pro-active in my business. So, what do I do. a) I take advantage of what could be the biggest opportunity to buy in history. "Could" is the operative word here...remember it's not a house I'm moving into. In your words, which BTW I love, I'm not "emotional about the house. I buy a house like a commodity. Factor in a dozen things I know about what I've been successful with and I buy the commodity. b) prices of houses are declining. Right...so I need to buy at a lower price point. Eighteen months ago I would buy a house at 60k. Sell at 110. Six months ago bought at 50k. Lowered my sell price to 100.
Last week I bought (albeit smaller than what I generally buy) a house at 36K.
I will sell that house in the next 3-4 months at 80K. I am certain. Two days later I bought my "usual " size, location, house at 46.5K So maybe, I'll need to sell it at 96-97 when it's done. Houses to me are nothing more than a trading vehicle.
c) I do not leverage. Unlike so many speculators that can't hang in, I don't take on any debt.
As far as a "specific example"...to give you. I can't. I'm doing this by my feel, instinct and what has worked for me for a lot of years. I cannot provide a set of charts or data that would suggest the news is not going to negative for the next 12 months, 18 months or forever. I'm taking a stand here that this is a lot of negative news and I am going to go full steam ahead with a contrary position.
John
John, I don't follow the crowd either. Just look at my posts from a year or two ago.
In your business of flipping houses, you want the economy to turn around so you can make more of a profit, quicker. So you are going to downplay any type of negative news to booster your income just like any say realtor would. (They don't want negative news which hurts volume and selling price obv)
There is nothing wrong with that, its just that we all have biases one way or the other.
I'm in the construction business and I'm tied to both the resi and commercial end. things are awful right now. Will they get better in the near term? Probably not. I am doing everything I can to hold onto my job and look for anyway to increase my business. But I am a realist and we are nowhere near this turning around around here anytime soon.
Again, when you say you take a 'contrary' position, what do you really mean by that? Your very vague in what you say. Do you think things will turn around in 3-6 months or are you just "hoping" and keeping your fingers crossed like some other people?
There's an awful lot of negative news posted on this forum about the city of Charlotte. From declining values of houses, no jobs, no future jobs, lay offs in the "only" industry we have that is banking, I'm beginning to think that the world has come to an end for CLT.
But, I have a problem (as usual). You see, I'm a contranian. I just have a problem following all the lemmings down the road and to date my method of thinking has served me well. So, the more ppl. that come on board with their "stats", unqualified opinions, the happier I become. I am a firm believer the masses are wrong. Now, you can fault me for that but this is one man's opinion.
One can talk about how CLT is going down the tube but...I never see one iota of statisical data to back up the statement. It's kind of like "liquor talk."
Like... "I think that the recession will end in...". Even the bozo that's in charge doesn't know that, or even say that, BUT we have people that "know".
My point is, being the contranian that I am, I'm sitting on a pot of gold in what I see is the future for Charlotte.
Your thoughts?
Relatively speaking, Charlotte's housing market has held up much better than many other peer cities, even given the high unemployment rate here, so perhaps your "problem" is simply the business you're in, and not Charlotte, per se.
And what does Charlotte have in common with peer cities like Jacksonville Tampa, Orlando, Atlanta, Nashville and Memphis...we all have double digit metro unemployment rates. In the grand scheme of things is an 11% unemployment rate that much worse than 10% to someone looking for work? I mention this because I don't think Charlotte is any less attractive now than any of its peer cities, and you see that evidenced in our continued high population growth. We're in a recession just like everyone else, but in the long run, this city will be fine.
I never see one iota of statisical data to back up the statement.
Didn't you know that data, facts, figures, etc. are always wrong if they cast Charlotte in a negative light? At least that's how they were viewed until very recently.
Seriously, look at posts from 1.5 to 2 years ago regarding Charlotte area crime, housing market, and local economy. "Negative" stats were not well received.
Besides, this forum is much more of a social, feel-good forum than a discussion/debate forum. (Not that there's anything wrong with that!) I participate in several other forums for political/economic debates.
Anyway, I really want to see Charlotte prosper. I hope to stay here another 5 to 8 years before moving on, so I'd like to see a successful, thriving Charlotte for many years to come. Right now, I just don't see a lot of positive signs. The recent increases in unemployment, negative/low job growth, and potential for new taxes to make up for State budget shortfalls aren't pointing in a positive direction. Couple this info with the ridiculous oversupply of housing in many areas and I'd be surprised if I could even sell my house for a "real" profit in 8 years.
John, I don't follow the crowd either. Just look at my posts from a year or two ago.
In your business of flipping houses, you want the economy to turn around so you can make more of a profit, quicker. So you are going to downplay any type of negative news to booster your income just like any say realtor would. (They don't want negative news which hurts volume and selling price obv)
Again, when you say you take a 'contrary' position, what do you really mean by that? Your very vague in what you say. Do you think things will turn around in 3-6 months or are you just "hoping" and keeping your fingers crossed like some other people?
Let me try to answer the 2 referenced para. above.
1) It would help me IF I was in a stronger market. No two ways about it but I am not trying to downplay negative news. How can one guy like me stop a tsunami? What I am stating is I will go contrary to the market and still make enough $$$ for my efforts and risk. I think the negative news is piled so high that it is a perfect storm to buy aggresively.
For me. Only me. I'm a speculator Jack. I only fall in love with a house b/c she's going to give me a "quickie". I'm not going to marry her. (A better ex. I can't give you)
2) I don't have a clue about turn around time. I really don't care. I deal with the market as of Monday A.M. I am no smarter than that. I see a LP. I send someone over to take a peek. I put a number together for re-hab. Project a sale price and I say "yes" or "no".
There might be some people that would do better than me in Vegas but I prefer Charlotte.
je
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