West Side Gentrification (Chicago, Oak Park, Madison: crime, cheap house, neighborhoods)

[Greektown Kid]

How long do you guys think it will be until we see serious gentrification in Garfield Park/Austin? There are many large, cheap houses in these neighborhoods- areas which are only 15 mins from the loop (that also enjoy one metra stop and the green and blue lines).

However, keep in mind that many of the mixed-income developments being created in the area have been halted.

Will gentrification begin once the housing market picks up? Or will development go elsewhere?

[Drover]

We've beaten this topic into the ground already.

Next...

[Greektown Kid]

Originally Posted by Drover

We've beaten this topic into the ground already.

Next...

You know, I'm sure many of the low-income residents on the West Side are rather curious about what people think will be done with their community. Also, opinions change daily, so enlighten me on your current thoughts.

And why do you think no gentrification came eastwards from Oak Park?

[Greektown Kid]

And lets not always assume that people will flock to Austin to purchase and flip these large homes....I mean...look at Uptown.....

Yes, uptown faces issues with drugs and its social services institutions- but, with its large housing stock and location, it should have been transformed years ago

[tonythetuna]

Originally Posted by Greektown Kid

How long do you guys think it will be until we see serious gentrification in Garfield Park/Austin?

30-50 years.

[emathias]

I've come to the conclusion that in places that are currently heavily black, have a bad reputation and losing population, that they won't recover until the economy recovers and they stop losing black population. That will signal that the black community is no longer scared of the areas, and a stable/growing population means housing values should be stable enough for investment. The other way it would start to grow again is if police action managed to keep crime levels close to the city average rates for an extended period of time, long enough for the area to lose its crime reputation. That would probably take a minimum of 5 years before people would start to think of it as something other than a temporary anomolie.

About 10-20 years after that, you'll start to see notable non-black population moving in. If you look at demographic maps of Chicago, one interesting comparison is that if you take a map that displays black population, and you then look at a map that displays "foreign-born," the maps are nearly opposite images of each other. That's not healthy for a neighborhood. In a big, international city like Chicago, part of what keeps areas vibrant and growing is immigration. If immigrants aren't locating in certain neighborhoods, and those neighborhoods are also losing population fast to the suburbs (there is a marked black migration to suburbs currently - sort of an echo of "white flight" from 50 years ago), then there's little chance of that neighborhood recovering.

So, basically, a few hopeful "urban pioneers" can change neighborhoods that are more mixed by bolstering an area's reputation with a couple demographics to tip the balance back to growth (of both headcount and total area income), but areas that only have one demographic need that demographic to step up first. And I haven't seen that happening in Garfield Park and Austin very much yet. Austin and East Garfield Park started to see some of that towards the end of the boom, but as far as I can tell those changes haven't managed to hang on very well after the bust.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that these areas are bad because they're majority-black. I'm saying they're bad because they have a majority demographic - which demographic that is doesn't really matter - and currently that demographic is quickly fleeing to the suburbs. Garfield Park in particular lost about 1/3 of its population between 1980 and 2000, even losing population from 1990-2000 when much of the rest of the city was at least stable.

Austin on the other hand may be close to stabilizing. After losing close to 20% of its population from 1980 to 1990, it did gain some population from 1990 to 2000. It will be interesting to see the results of the 2010 census.

[Alacran]

Unless mexicans move in, no one will.

[tonesdef]

I know a few white couples that bought houses in the area you are talking about. THere houses are big and wonderful just like you said. But the surroundings area screams rape/robe me so yeah.

[Irishtom29]

I'd love to live in Austin if I could; I grew up there. But I can't.

As for "urban pioneers"; I think I'd'a rather been in Shawnee country in 1775 than at Madison and Central today.

I'd think that a possible avenue of gentrification on the West Side would be Medical Center people pushing out Ogden into Lawndale. Lots of very nice buildings there, some of those Jews and Bohemians had serious dough. CTA service would be good on the Roosevelt and Ogden buses and the Douglas Park EL.

http://forgottenchicago.com/forum/1/3084/north_lawndale

[grapico]

Originally Posted by Irishtom29

I'd love to live in Austin if I could; I grew up there. But I can't.

As for "urban pioneers"; I think I'd'a rather been in Shawnee country in 1775 than at Madison and Central today.

I'd think that a possible avenue of gentrification on the West Side would be Medical Center people pushing out Ogden into Lawndale. Lots of very nice buildings there, some of those Jews and Bohemians had serious dough. CTA service would be good on the Roosevelt and Ogden buses and the Douglas Park EL.

North Lawndale

I agree, good post. Plus you have the Pink Line over there now too tucked away. That area is not that bad really.