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Hard to predict A lot depends on the Covid. I saw a probability of more people going back to work in the office which would have helped things a lot but who knows now how long our leaders and the media will keep the Covid hysteria going. Looks like they're in it for the long haul. It has just become so political and our leadership will be on the "safe side," i.e. restrictions.
Wherever you fall on that, there's no doubt more businesses will close, particularly bars and restaurants. Some residents will move to areas with fewer restrictions. This won't help crime either, or the real estate market here.
Unfortunately I do not have a good outlook on the crime situation, either way. Our State's Attorney is, bluntly, incompetent, and hasn't made any policy changes that I'm aware of which might result in stemming the murders, car jackings and retail thefts. You may think retail theft is unimportant compared to those first two, but it results in a lot of negative press, particularly in national news. I don't see the SA changing gears in '22.
Interest rates hikes seem inevitable due to inflation, and I think that could have a pretty negative effect on Chicago's real estate market if coupled with business closures, a stagnant or slow economy,, and the growing perception of lack of safety. That will be particularly true if foreign investment continues to shrink as it has been of late.
I hope I'm being overly pessimistic and it'll turn out to be a great year, but it'll probably be a rough one. In a weird way that might be good because things getting worse might convince our lunkhead voters to vote these bad politicians out. So hopefully the election of 2023 helps turn things around!
Hard to predict A lot depends on the Covid. I saw a probability of more people going back to work in the office which would have helped things a lot but who knows now how long our leaders and the media will keep the Covid hysteria going. Looks like they're in it for the long haul. It has just become so political and our leadership will be on the "safe side," i.e. restrictions.
Wherever you fall on that, there's no doubt more businesses will close, particularly bars and restaurants. Some residents will move to areas with fewer restrictions. This won't help crime either, or the real estate market here.
Unfortunately I do not have a good outlook on the crime situation, either way. Our State's Attorney is, bluntly, incompetent, and hasn't made any policy changes that I'm aware of which might result in stemming the murders, car jackings and retail thefts. You may think retail theft is unimportant compared to those first two, but it results in a lot of negative press, particularly in national news. I don't see the SA changing gears in '22.
Interest rates hikes seem inevitable due to inflation, and I think that could have a pretty negative effect on Chicago's real estate market if coupled with business closures, a stagnant or slow economy,, and the growing perception of lack of safety. That will be particularly true if foreign investment continues to shrink as it has been of late.
I hope I'm being overly pessimistic and it'll turn out to be a great year, but it'll probably be a rough one. In a weird way that might be good because things getting worse might convince our lunkhead voters to vote these bad politicians out. So hopefully the election of 2023 helps turn things around!
This is spot-on analysis. You are absolutely right that the "negative press" even for things such as shoplifting (and definitely muggings), combined with the headline crime totals that can be used each summer weekend will continue to perpetuate Chicago's crime reputation nationally and globally.
Agree with you about COVID too. I think the media will continue the hysteria through winter, although I think at the spring/summer mark, they may ease up and we could see a return to "(new) normal" by then. At that point, if COVID is still around like it is now, then that will mean it will always be around and we will just have to come to terms with it. I know that the hysteria has worked on me. I have pretty much lived under a rock the last 2 years, and as long as the media hysteria continues, I will continue to.
This is spot-on analysis. You are absolutely right that the "negative press" even for things such as shoplifting (and definitely muggings), combined with the headline crime totals that can be used each summer weekend will continue to perpetuate Chicago's crime reputation nationally and globally.
Agree with you about COVID too. I think the media will continue the hysteria through winter, although I think at the spring/summer mark, they may ease up and we could see a return to "(new) normal" by then. At that point, if COVID is still around like it is now, then that will mean it will always be around and we will just have to come to terms with it. I know that the hysteria has worked on me. I have pretty much lived under a rock the last 2 years, and as long as the media hysteria continues, I will continue to.
The media does not pay much attention to it but as an investor in real estate, I know how much of our current market rise, or bubble, is being driven by foreign investment, and that is pretty fragile. It's only a matter of time before they start sensing a decline and get cold feet. If that happens, then it is going to have a huge negative impact on the real estate market here. And if you put an interest rate increase, or two, on top of that, it's going to also hit the amateur investors and individual home buyers.
Didn't mean to start a debate about the Covid. I had the Covid last December and was sick for 4 whole hours. But regardless of how seriously you and I might personally take it, people just have to be honest about the effects of preventative measures.
I mean,, if our new normal is going to include vax passports and strict mask mandates, then fine, I guess, but we have to be prepared to accept that that is going to put Chicago in a big disadvantage compared to less restrictive cities. Especially when you add in our other issues. Some may think the trade off is worth it, but they should be honest about the downsides and then make the argument that the juice is worth the squeeze.
The media does not pay much attention to it but as an investor in real estate, I know how much of our current market rise, or bubble, is being driven by foreign investment, and that is pretty fragile. It's only a matter of time before they start sensing a decline and get cold feet. If that happens, then it is going to have a huge negative impact on the real estate market here. And if you put an interest rate increase, or two, on top of that, it's going to also hit the amateur investors and individual home buyers.
Didn't mean to start a debate about the Covid. I had the Covid last December and was sick for 4 whole hours. But regardless of how seriously you and I might personally take it, people just have to be honest about the effects of preventative measures.
I mean,, if our new normal is going to include vax passports and strict mask mandates, then fine, I guess, but we have to be prepared to accept that that is going to put Chicago in a big disadvantage compared to less restrictive cities. Especially when you add in our other issues. Some may think the trade off is worth it, but they should be honest about the downsides and then make the argument that the juice is worth the squeeze.
The infuriating thing is, there ARE no trade-offs -- it's all downside with no upside.
We now know these vaccines do next to nothing to stop the spread of all the vaccine-escaping variants popping up. At best the vaccines provide the recipient more protection against serious adverse health effects of an infection. But that alone is a lousy basis for enacting wide-reaching mandates that will achieve NOTHING in the way of broad public policy outcomes while destroying who knows how many businesses that have already been white-knuckling it for two years.
I live right on the DuPage/Cook border so I frequently patronize businesses in both counties. That stops right now -- I'm not stepping foot in any Cook County business until the crazy people running that place stop taking consumers like me for granted. That even goes for businesses not subject to the mask mandate -- I just won't shop in Cook County period until they get their chit together.
The infuriating thing is, there ARE no trade-offs -- it's all downside with no upside.
We now know these vaccines do next to nothing to stop the spread of all the vaccine-escaping variants popping up. At best the vaccines provide the recipient more protection against serious adverse health effects of an infection. But that alone is a lousy basis for enacting wide-reaching mandates that will achieve NOTHING in the way of broad public policy outcomes while destroying who knows how many businesses that have already been white-knuckling it for two years.
I live right on the DuPage/Cook border so I frequently patronize businesses in both counties. That stops right now -- I'm not stepping foot in any Cook County business until the crazy people running that place stop taking consumers like me for granted. That even goes for businesses not subject to the mask mandate -- I just won't shop in Cook County period until they get their chit together.
I'm a very democratic minded person. And people seem to like the mandates. So own the downsides and sell the upsides. I too don't really see them but I'm willing to be convinced.
I would just like to see more honesty, a big problem these days. Like the defund the police thing. I mean, I personally thought it was an utterly stupid idea. But many didn't. So fine, but don't try to blame the increased crime on other things or say what you said wasn't what you meant. Just own it and say that it's an acceptable trade off for the long term goal. To do otherwise is cowardly and completely undermines the position. I haven't seen a single politician or supporter stand up and do that, and that is sad commentary on our society today.
I agree with everything that’s been said. I’m actually moving out of Chicago and my mother is too next March after 9 years of living here. It’s just exhausting to be working from home but then also not be able to run around the city freely because of the insane crime. So I don’t leave the house at night... That’s no way to live. And Lightfoot doesn’t have a CLUE what to do and Kim Foxx I’m convinced is corrupt and has some deal cut with gang leaders and criminals. Either that or she hates white people because she has no problem with them being mugged and shot in fact she supports the criminals that do it. It’s been fun Chicago, but I’m out!
Population decline trends point to the party ending as the pension bill comes due. For all the claims it’s just downstaters leaving there simply isn’t enough population to account for people heading for the edits. The longer remote work lasts the harder it will be to bring employees back into the office and the need for prime Chicago realestate will dampen. I sadly foresee a death spiral starting to form here in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs as people realize they can keep their high paying job and skip town, this leaving the pension issues behind. Chicago is poorly situated to combat people from having their cake and eating it in most cases. I don’t think Chicago will fair well the instant interest rates increase either.
Population decline trends point to the party ending as the pension bill comes due. For all the claims it’s just downstaters leaving there simply isn’t enough population to account for people heading for the edits. The longer remote work lasts the harder it will be to bring employees back into the office and the need for prime Chicago realestate will dampen. I sadly foresee a death spiral starting to form here in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs as people realize they can keep their high paying job and skip town, this leaving the pension issues behind. Chicago is poorly situated to combat people from having their cake and eating it in most cases. I don’t think Chicago will fair well the instant interest rates increase either.
I think everybody who voted for Richard M. Daley should be responsible for paying the pension debt, no matter where they live. People vote for policies and then flee to avoid the consequences. About the only consolation that we have in blue cities is that these people are going to ultimately end up voting in the same policies in their new home states, or will vote for national politicians who will send their federal taxes right back here, which is what happened with respect to the Biden Administration, at least this budget year. So people who feel they are safe in Florida or Arizona are actually helping pay for universal basic income for some Chicagoans, lol!
A retroactive amendment stripping pension protections to the state constitution would do a lot of good for the state in the longterm - our credit rating is f'd as it is - and renegotiating those pensions, especially for those whose primary residences are out-of-state, would be completely reasonable.
A retroactive amendment stripping pension protections to the state constitution would do a lot of good for the state in the longterm - our credit rating is f'd as it is - and renegotiating those pensions, especially for those whose primary residences are out-of-state, would be completely reasonable.
Never gonna happen. Many of the people who voted in politicians who decided not to fund public employee pensions all those years have moved and skipped out on the bill. So IL is now a one party government which doesn't need to take the political risk. They've gerrymandered voting maps to ensure that will not change.
Democrats are talking about getting rid of the filibuster so they can federalize voting laws; ostensibly to eliminate unfairness caused by Republican gerrymandering and voting rules. But I think the real reason is to make it easier for their traditional supporters to vote. Otherwise, we'd also be hearing outrage over our State's obviously partisan new map.
That could help ensure Democrat control of the federal government and thus a supply of federal money to Chicago and other large cities. But the current administration is screwing things up so badly, I'm not even sure that's going to work. We will see.
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