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That's my point, lol. No place is on an upward trajectory indefinitely. Everyone in the history of civilization has had setbacks. What makes people think the sunbelt continues to grow 10% YOY for the next 3 decades given what we know about climate change and rapidly increasing COL in the south? Dallas and ATL are quickly catching up to Chicago in terms of COL.
Excellent counter points. It does frighten me to think that one day the south could experience it's own rustbelt decades out when the factories and headquarters close down or move back to the midwest or north east. Giving the rising cost of living in the south in particular such as Nashville, Raleigh, and for all intents and purposes Austin, they are now at/or more expensive to live in than cities such as Indianapolis, Columbus, Cincinnati etc. Who would have ever imagined paying $2,000/month for a one to two bedroom apartment in downtown Nashville (smdh) with higher than average crime and meager amenity offerings?
Why should you be (emoticon) confused? I didn't state an absolute and there are many fast growing cities that are not in the west or or southwest. The Rustbelt needs to worry about competing with the Southeast rather than the West and there are plenty of growth areas in the Southeast that are not on the coast.
I was going to post to say how I feel everyone is overestimating the growth of Dallas, but I hadn't noticed how much Dallas grew in the past 5 years, according to estimates.
I guess Dallas is out of its rut and growing pretty rapidly again.
Dallas's Census estimates in 2009 wound up being WAY higher than the actual 2010 results. I'm not convinced that won't happen again in 2020 tbh.
Dallas's Census estimates in 2009 wound up being WAY higher than the actual 2010 results. I'm not convinced that won't happen again in 2020 tbh.
I looked that up, but it seems the estimates were only about 100k higher than the census, though all large cities had their populations overestimated, for some reason. I also suppose "WAY higher" is a subjective term. It also seems like the estimates weren't too off on metro population, though not sure how.
I looked that up, but it seems the estimates were only about 100k higher than the census, though all large cities had their populations overestimated, for some reason. I also suppose "WAY higher" is a subjective term. It also seems like the estimates weren't too off on metro population, though not sure how.
It is because estimating city proper population is increasingly difficult for the census bureau. Unlike counties, which are rather easy. That is why the lionshare of cities were either over or under estimated at the city proper level, however, the super grand majority of their metropolitan areas came in right where they were meant to.
City propers have arbitrary borders that tend to fluctuate depending on annexations or CDPs and other smaller census based designations within vicinity, which typically either over inflate or under inflate numbers. A lot of people that don't live in the "city" but also don't live in a census based jurisdiction use the city's billing and mailing addresses in unincorporated areas. Annual estimates of population growth in these areas tend to throw estimates for the entire city proper off.
Counties are precise, the lines are permanently drawn. There is a concrete and solid estimate of the number of births (hospital records), the number of deaths (obituaries and records), the immigration into a county (via the census bureau AND Department of Homeland Security), and through IRS tax collectors aiding the census bureau, an idea of the number of domestic migrants to a county.
City propers don't really "do much" in this day and age, it is rather meaningless and insignificant for anything other than city budgetary books and zoning for both commercial and residential areas.
Even murder rates should be taken at the metropolitan area level (which the FBI does), that is a better depiction of how safe or unsafe areas truly are with regard to murders and other crimes.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 10-01-2016 at 02:51 PM..
But, the premise is that the West has long term water issues. So, my comments were that the Southeast would continue to draw from the Midwest if migration slowed to the West.
But, the premise is that the West has long term water issues. So, my comments were that the Southeast would continue to draw from the Midwest if migration slowed to the West.
That's assuming people continue moving southeast 10, 15, 20+ years from now.
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