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2010..........2020..........2030..........2040.... ......2050!!! The population of the US is predicted to be 430,500,000 by then, but what are the largest cities?
1. New York City 13,500,000
2. Los Angeles 5,100,000
3. Houston 4,100,000
4. Chicago 4,000,000
5. Phoenix 2,400,000
6. San Antonio 2,300,000
7. San Diego 2,250,000
8. Dallas 2,200,000
9. Philadelphia 1,900,000
10. San Jose 1,500,000
That is my list for the city propers . What is yours?
I can think of several reason why this is just wrong. For one San Jose will be lucky to still rank among the 10 largest city-propers in America by 2022. San Jose's population growth is modest at its best and the Silcon Valley city faces steeper competition from other rising cities like Austin, Charlotte, and Fort Worth. Aside from that I think some of the projections are just too high. I think it's too early to suggest that Chicago's population could reach 4 million by 2050, even if the population growth rate of the U.S. as a whole were to remain relatively high. Unless Chicago starts annexing land, it probably won't even have a population of 2.7 million by 2050. I can possibly see Houston at 3.1-3.9 million, possibly, Los Angeles anywhere from 3.0-5.0 million, and New York City at 9.0-11 million. The other cities I have to more research to give an accurate guess. However, the basic notion is, some of the cities among the ten largest city propers today may not be by 2050.
City
New York
Los Angeles
Houston
Chicago
San Antonio
UA
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
MSA
New York
Los Angeles
Dallas
Chicago
Houston
(Maybe the Greater DMV area or the Bay Area if they permanently add in San Jose and Baltimore by then)
CSA
New York
Los Angeles
Impossible to tell with all the factors. By 2050, this will be a very neck in neck race between the DMV, the Metroplex, Chicagoland, and the Bay Area.
DMA
New York
Los Angeles
Dallas
Chicago
Houston or the Bay Area
(The last four for DMA will all probably be spitting distance from one another).
Hardest one to tell is the CSA. Because to be honest, I cant get a handle on the presumed growth correlation between the DMV, Bay Area, Metroplex, and Chicagoland. All of them are georaphically rich in the way CSA's should be when they benefit. Chicago has Rockford and South Bend, one of which was really close to being added this time around but barely missed it. Which would put it at present day 11 million exact. The DMV area has Sussex (DE), Salisbury, and a few other areas but more then not, it's gains will be from population growth. Depends on where the government stands from here on it. Cant see it displaced out of the top 5 though, since it has such a massive lead on Dallas, Boston, Miami, and Houston even a slow growing DMV can keep it's spot in the 5. Bay Area like Chicagoland is geographically rich, it can absorb in Salinas, Ukiah, Modesto, and Merced which it probably will and has a natural increase on pace for 1 million a decade. Stands to reason they'll also keep their top 5 spot. From 3-5 in the CSA is anyone's guess really.
Adding in land area doesn't really make any of these places feel larger though, it just keeps the position locked for bragging rights. Thousands of cities in the world are geographically rich, they have large or small population centers all around them. It doesn't help or hurt the city either way though. For example, Chicago will always feel like a much larger city than Washington DC, regardless of the outcomes.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 10-27-2013 at 09:44 PM..
Also worth thinking about. Aside from New York and Los Angeles, America looks like it will never again have another city represented across the board in all five of it's population ranks: City, UA, MSA, CSA, and DMA.
Let alone ever have a city that's claimed it's spot consistently in all five. Example, New York is number one in all five, Los Angeles is number two in all five. So far Chicago is number three in all five, however that wont remain the case for much longer though.
Future population predictions should also consider the possible annexation of a city's surrounding areas.
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