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What aspirations? That it can increase in density. I don't think anyone will believe Houston will ever reach Philly's density much less NYC's density. LA won't ever reach Philly's sustained density either. But do I believe Houston can reach LA density? Yes. If Houston can bring it's new development that we all saw in the inner loop to the even Beltway 8, I can Houston sustaining 5000-7000 in 20 years. The inner loop is near 5000 ppsm itself.
No the aspirations were a discussion iof Houston surpassing 4 or 5 million; the point is the density that would be required to get there will never exist in Houston, not goofd or bad just a reality on the development and style there. Just simple math and reality (well I guess it can always annex another couple hundred miles of land)
Actually on LA for the most part has already far exceeded the sustained density of Philly especially 3, 4, 5, 10 miles from the core
to get to 4 million in the current land area it needs to have an average density of ~7,500 ppsm; which today is not even maintianed in the core 90 sq miles let alone 600 sq miles.
No the aspirations were a discussion iof Houston surpassing 4 or 5 million; the point is the density that would be required to get there will never exist in Houston, not goofd or bad just a reality on the development and style there. Just simple math and reality (well I guess it can always annex another couple hundred miles of land)
Actually on LA for the most part has already far exceeded the sustained density of Philly especially 3, 4, 5, 10 miles from the core
to get to 4 million in the current land area it needs to have an average density of ~7,500 ppsm; which today is not even maintianed in the core 90 sq miles let alone 600 sq miles.
It's not at 7,500 ppsm...yet. It can get there though. Especially if they can continue to build developments like West Ave, Regent Square, and Sonoma. Have you checked the development and style there recently? Houses are much closer to the point where they are attached, yards and spaces are smaller, and it's becoming more tight inside the loop. Gone are those 1960 style ranch houses or even the 1990s cookie cutter suburban homes (though they never were built inside the loop in the first place).
I mean Houston's inner loop infill leads me to believe that it can build towards a pretty good clip of density. A Pictured thread
Now this is only for one neighborhood but this is basically how the inner loop is rebuilding itself. Again, the belief is the population of the inner loop is at 550,000 at 95 sq. miles. That's near 6000 ppsm. I most certainly believe that it is doable inside the loop. Now to take it to Beltway 8 is another story which goes back to my initial post. If they can start the see the same development that you see in the inner loop come to the outer loop, Houston's density can and will increase.
Would someone just use the calculator some time? I just did that for a big waste then, obviously, posting the links up, having to post some long lines, and other stuff? Anyway, I see how New York is shaping up to be - an even bigger city. This time it raised only about 170K during the time between the censuses. And I like to see LA's population growth coming to a halt. I hated all that pollution, going up there.
And to see that LA has less than New York and has a LOT of pollution, then I wonder how New York pollution is. I don't think it's as bad, but in LA. Heavens.
Also, I bet San Diego's population should reach over 1,700,000 according to current growth rates. Least it will never be as populated than LA and New York. What a sigh.
It's not at 7,500 ppsm...yet. It can get there though. Especially if they can continue to build developments like West Ave, Regent Square, and Sonoma. Have you checked the development and style there recently? Houses are much closer to the point where they are attached, yards and spaces are smaller, and it's becoming more tight inside the loop. Gone are those 1960 style ranch houses or even the 1990s cookie cutter suburban homes (though they never were built inside the loop in the first place).
I mean Houston's inner loop infill leads me to believe that it can build towards a pretty good clip of density. A Pictured thread
Now this is only for one neighborhood but this is basically how the inner loop is rebuilding itself. Again, the belief is the population of the inner loop is at 550,000 at 95 sq. miles. That's near 6000 ppsm. I most certainly believe that it is doable inside the loop. Now to take it to Beltway 8 is another story which goes back to my initial post. If they can start the see the same development that you see in the inner loop come to the outer loop, Houston's density can and will increase.
but even at 6,000 or even if the loop surpasses that it needs to have this same density (actually higher than the loop of today at 7,500 average for the whole city) over the whole of Houston to reach 4 million let alone 5 million. It is just not going happen; that is neither good nor bad but houston is just not built that dense, especially outside the loop, and yes there are small areas that are but it needs this developme in continuum for the whole ~600 sq miles - that is my point; mathmatically it just aint going to happen; Houston will not reach this level of sustained denisty to reach this number; at least not in any of our lifetimes if ever.
And also in looking the pictures; the vast majority of even what you are describing as high density still looks very suburban, or mostly like what would be considered iinner suburbs here. It is just bazaar to see Houston and then to realize it is the 4th largest city in america. Mostly in 15+ years in going there I continue to ask where is the city (it only shows up for a couple of blocks and immeadiately returns to the burbs); it is pockets and mostly surrounded by dense suburbs. Houston is large metro but never really feels like a large city (outside of tall building which mostly look misplaced when there are single homes within a mile of them). This development style still baffles me everytime or at least calling it a city of 2.3 million people. But back on point that density needs to be maintained at above what all those pictures are over the whole 600 miles to reach 4 million people.
Last edited by kidphilly; 04-04-2011 at 09:11 PM..
By 2050 all Northeastern / Mid Atlantic Cities will surpass there peak populations before the white/black flights and population decrease. NYC should be 10 Million..... Most of the regions growth will occur in DC Metro , NYC region , and SE PA....
1990 Population : 63 Million
2010 Population : 67 Million
2025 Population : 73 Million
2050 Population : 90 Million
2010 Transit Daily Usage : 20.4 Million
2020 Transit Daily Usage : 35 Million
2050 Transit Usage : 50 Million
For Houston to get to 4+ million it would have to have density throughout the city higher than what exists today within the loop. I understand there are places that are vacant today but seriously this is not going to happen in Houston any time soon if ever
Even the inner loop is 70% of the density that whole city would need to be to reach this level.
Bascially Houston would need to be approximately half as dense as the foreground here over the nearly 600 sq miles; it just aint going to happen.
Houston does not develop this way; which is fine but reality needs to be placed on these aspirations. The current mid rise apt development is below what it would take for the whole city to reach this density.
I don't know about all that Fancy Talk but Houston can easily add 1M people to the SE side with just single family homes like on the SW side. It can add another million on the NE side in the same way, and another 0.75M on the NW side. Lookie here, almost 3M just by continuing to build the suburban style that it already has. You do know that If Houston maintains the average density (not even the high zip codes) of the SW throughout the entire city limits Houston would have 5.25M people?
Now if they were to go the way of the west side of the Inner loop (the east side is a lot more sparse) with more higher density homes then who knows how many people the area could support.
and to the person who said that Houston would have to redo the entire infrastructure to reach 5M people, although we don't have to since when has having to redo the entire infrastructure of any part of the city stopped Houston? Unfortunately tons of infrastructure gets torn down all the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
Agree NYC, LA, Houston, Chicago will all be there but after there are so many, especially those with large borders. SA, Charlotte, Dallas, Ft Worth etc may all be among the top ten in population plus maybe some surprises
I can see SA, Charlotte and FW, but Dallas does not seem to be getting as dense as they were predicting so I think it would slip out of the top ten in a few decades by the time Charlotte, FW, Austin, etc makes it to the top ten. If Charlotte, FW, Austin maintain their rate of growth for the next two decades, then these three will already be knocking on Dallas's door. The difference between these cities and Dallas 10 years ago was about 650K the difference now is about 450K.
Dallas will still be top dog in the metroplex but FW just has a lot more room to grow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade
What aspirations? That it can increase in density. I don't think anyone will believe Houston will ever reach Philly's density much less NYC's density. LA won't ever reach Philly's sustained density either. But do I believe Houston can reach LA density? Yes. If Houston can bring it's new development that we all saw in the inner loop to the even Beltway 8, I can Houston sustaining 5000-7000 in 20 years. The inner loop is near 5000 ppsm itself.
From the west loop of 610 all the way to the beltway is already 5000ppsm in a lot of parts south of I10.
It's not at 7,500 ppsm...yet. It can get there though. Especially if they can continue to build developments like West Ave, Regent Square, and Sonoma. Have you checked the development and style there recently? Houses are much closer to the point where they are attached, yards and spaces are smaller, and it's becoming more tight inside the loop. Gone are those 1960 style ranch houses or even the 1990s cookie cutter suburban homes (though they never were built inside the loop in the first place).
I mean Houston's inner loop infill leads me to believe that it can build towards a pretty good clip of density. A Pictured thread
Now this is only for one neighborhood but this is basically how the inner loop is rebuilding itself. Again, the belief is the population of the inner loop is at 550,000 at 95 sq. miles. That's near 6000 ppsm. I most certainly believe that it is doable inside the loop. Now to take it to Beltway 8 is another story which goes back to my initial post. If they can start the see the same development that you see in the inner loop come to the outer loop, Houston's density can and will increase.
Yeah the two census tracts immediately west of downtown grew by 101% and 116% in the last decade. The three closest to these grew by 42%, 63% and 47%. The population spikes in that area was really high.
even midtown's census tracts increased by 37% and 78%
Now lets not forget uptown. Uptowns population increased by 95 and 83% in its two main census tracts. The surrounding tracts increased by 25%- 32%
The population of the med center increased by 103% and the surrounding tracts increased by 57, 25 and 29%
I live in that area between 610 and the beltway outside of Uptown. Houston has plenty of room, even in uptown and the other developed neighborhoods. Houstons city limits are enourmous and the infrastructure is there, with denser developments, and major re-planning the city will be dense like a NE city.
I live in that area between 610 and the beltway outside of Uptown. Houston has plenty of room, even in uptown and the other developed neighborhoods. Houstons city limits are enourmous and the infrastructure is there, with denser developments, and major re-planning the city will be dense like a NE city.
Yeah, if the City developed with the density around Sharpstown the city would have 6,950,000 people.
If it developed with the density of the SW as a whole it would have 5,225,000
If it developed with the west side of the inner lop density it would have 4,350,000
and if it developed with the inner loop density it would have 3,500,000
Thank god we don't like it too dense here cause if we had NYC density we would have 15,941,028 people tying up our streets. Manhattan density would put us at 41M
Houston would have a transit system like New York City as well. I can't see Houston having 14million in the city ever but 5 million is possible, especially with new technologies.
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Anyway, I see how New York is shaping up to be - an even bigger city. This time it raised only about 170K during the time between the censuses. 
And I like to see LA's population growth coming to a halt. I hated all that pollution, going up there.
Least it will never be as populated than LA and New York. What a sigh. 
