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I'll be the party pooper/outlier and say I wish there were NO cities with 3 million.
Waaay too many people filling up this rock. And more = "booming"? Sounds like an overpopulated nightmare in the making.
I read the original post from 2012 and don't get what everyone sounds so excited about.
Maury County is currently part of Nashville’s CSA however I’m surprised Montgomery Country/Clarksville/Bowling Green, KY isn’t included in CSA numbers as it’s about the same distance to Columbia with tons of commuters. Adding the Montgomery/Clarksville MSA would add another 330,000 to the Nashville region to around the 2.4-2.5 million range currently.
As for the topic, I can see Orlando, Charlotte, San Antonio and a few others reach or just under 3 million by the 2030 census.
I agree. I could see Nashville approach 2.6-2.8 million by 2040. 3 million is unlikely, but not out of the question given Nashville's growth and proximity to other metro areas.
I agree. I could see Nashville approach 2.6-2.8 million by 2040. 3 million is unlikely, but not out of the question given Nashville's growth and proximity to other metro areas.
Technically If you include the Clarksville/Bowling Green, KY area to the Nashville CSA it’s already close to 2.4-2.5 million range now. If growth rates continue and Clarksville is added to the CSA by the 2030 census the area would be close to the 2.7-2.8 million range by 2030. As far as the core MSA I can see 2.2-2.3 million by 2030.
I'll be the party pooper/outlier and say I wish there were NO cities with 3 million.
Waaay too many people filling up this rock. And more = "booming"? Sounds like an overpopulated nightmare in the making.
I read the original post from 2012 and don't get what everyone sounds so excited about.
We can easily house a few billion more people on this rock. Stop with the doomerism.
We can easily house a few billion more people on this rock. Stop with the doomerism.
Easily? Lol. Read up on a thing called environmental carrying capacity.
Humans have increased our own carrying capacity via "lol tech," at the expense of Earth's capacity to sustain other species which ultimately, leads to everyone loosing as foundations of the global biosphere start to literally die off. (Holocene extinction)
Second, expansions in per capita wealth and the concomitant increases in per capita consumption, resource use and waste generation, tend to decrease the total number of people that can be sustained, long term. All else being equal, a richer population has a lower carrying capacity than a poorer, more abstemious population.
That being said it's not "doomerism". It's no less factual than Earth revolving around the sun or that your heart pumps blood to your brain.
Now, will any of us on this forum be alive to see if it plays out? Probably not.
Technically If you include the Clarksville/Bowling Green, KY area to the Nashville CSA it’s already close to 2.4-2.5 million range now. If growth rates continue and Clarksville is added to the CSA by the 2030 census the area would be close to the 2.7-2.8 million range by 2030. As far as the core MSA I can see 2.2-2.3 million by 2030.
I agree. I could see Nashville approach 2.6-2.8 million by 2040. 3 million is unlikely, but not out of the question given Nashville's growth and proximity to other metro areas.
If you added every adjacent MSA to the current Nashville CSA except Bowling Green, KY, & Florence and Muscle Shoals, AL you'd have Nashville sitting just under 2.8M now. However, that would make the CSA physically gigantic and it's already pretty large as it is.
If you added every adjacent MSA to the current Nashville CSA except Bowling Green, KY, & Florence and Muscle Shoals, AL you'd have Nashville sitting just under 2.8M now. However, that would make the CSA physically gigantic and it's already pretty large as it is.
I am glad you and other posters mentioned this. Nashville's influence extends beyond the classified boundaries. The msa looks, acts, and feels like a 2.5+ million metro area now. Bowling Green and Huntsville to some degree are nearly identical to some of Nashville's ring cities and suburbs. I do wish to see Hickman county added back to the MSA. I also would like to see Clarksville's metro added to the CSA. It really makes sense, considering commute patterns and the interconnected nature of the regions. Huntsville is likely out of the question to be in Nashville's CSA, but that region is growing fast. I expect Huntsville to add Lincoln County (Fayetteville, TN) to its CSA in the coming decade. Bowling Green (Warren County) or at least Simpson County (Franklin, KY) would make sense to add to Nashville's CSA. With the additions, Nashville would easily meet the 3 million threshold. With just Clarksville, Nashville would likely reach 2.8-3 million by 2030 which makes sense if you are familiar with the region. I don't see much of a connection for Florence or Muscle Shoals, as they have very little in common with Middle Tennessee. Culturally and economically, they share more things with West Tennessee.
Just a few years ago, the San Diego MSA became the 17th US metro to surpass the 3 million mark-- joining the Twin Cities and Seattle in the race toward 4 million. True, 3 million is nothing more than a number. But to some, it's an indicator that a metro area has "arrived."
So to that end, let's do some speculating, just for fun: Which will be the next metro areas to join the "3 million club"? Obvious contenders include Tampa Bay (currently at 2,860,379), St. Louis (2,812,896), and Baltimore (2,710,489). It's important to note that each has a different rate of population growth, which will certainly affect the outcome.
Then let's not forget those slightly smaller MSAs with some rather robust rates of population growth: Denver, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Orlando. It's entirely possible that any of these metros could eventually catch up with, or surpass, those ranked above them.
Which do you foresee becoming the next 3 million metros? And which ones will reach that mark by the end of this decade?
I see the date on the OP.
Given my thoughts today, I think Charlotte and Austin are definitely the next 3 million plus MSA.
I think St. Louis definitely has the potential to carry the 3 million plus status well. I don't think the drive for growth is there yet but could be on its way in the next 2 or three years depending on the economy and regional cooperation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shakeesha
I am glad you and other posters mentioned this. Nashville's influence extends beyond the classified boundaries. The msa looks, acts, and feels like a 2.5+ million metro area now. Bowling Green and Huntsville to some degree are nearly identical to some of Nashville's ring cities and suburbs. I do wish to see Hickman county added back to the MSA. I also would like to see Clarksville's metro added to the CSA. It really makes sense, considering commute patterns and the interconnected nature of the regions. Huntsville is likely out of the question to be in Nashville's CSA, but that region is growing fast. I expect Huntsville to add Lincoln County (Fayetteville, TN) to its CSA in the coming decade. Bowling Green (Warren County) or at least Simpson County (Franklin, KY) would make sense to add to Nashville's CSA. With the additions, Nashville would easily meet the 3 million threshold. With just Clarksville, Nashville would likely reach 2.8-3 million by 2030 which makes sense if you are familiar with the region. I don't see much of a connection for Florence or Muscle Shoals, as they have very little in common with Middle Tennessee. Culturally and economically, they share more things with West Tennessee.
That seems to be a lot of adding?
As it stands today, I don't see Nashville as a 3 million MSA for the next census.
Last edited by mjtinmemphis; 09-11-2023 at 08:25 AM..
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