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IMO there is no way NOLA gets to 2 million in a decade. It is around 1.2 million now and even if it grew 25% in the next ten years (a very high rate) that would just take it to 1,500,000.
For comparison's sake, the fastest growing metros of the 2000's were Las Vegas and Raleigh which grew about 40%. Even if New Orleans matched that rate the total population would be around 1.68 million. Fast growers Austin grew 37% and Charlotte grew 32%.
I don't know if this is the case for New Orleans, but in a lot of northern cities, most of the population decline was due to declining family size.
I have calculated that for Pittsburgh, even though we've lost over half our population since our peak, if we grew by only 110,000 people (about a third of the loss), we'd be full again, as there would be an equal number of households to the 1960 census.
I was going to post something like this.
A lot of inner cities got double hit in the past 50-60 years from both white flight and a change in the American family makeup.
Now the phenomenon that interests me is gentrification. In a lot of areas where gentrification happens, lower income families (which tend to be larger) are being pushed out by higher income singles and couples. It's interesting to me because the population density tends to dip, even if there is rehab/redevelopment, and even if the overall vacancy rate drops.
So...even if these rebounding cities completely fill up their old units, they probably won't approach their peak populations/densities.
Is it possible for NOLA to reach 660,000? Yes. But I don't think it's possible by filling up what is there. It will take a huge, huge amount of multifamily construction...and that won't happen overnight.
I also think a lot of NOLA's current growth is still just repopulation. Yes, there are many new developments (just like in a lot of major cities)...but the big gains are a little bit deceptive, IMO. I think it will take at least another 5-10 years before we can start judging exactly how much NOLA is really growing rather than healing.
A lot of inner cities got double hit in the past 50-60 years from both white flight and a change in the American family makeup.
Now the phenomenon that interests me is gentrification. In a lot of areas where gentrification happens, lower income families (which tend to be larger) are being pushed out by higher income singles and couples. It's interesting to me because the population density tends to dip, even if there is rehab/redevelopment, and even if the overall vacancy rate drops.
So...even if these rebounding cities completely fill up their old units, they probably won't approach their peak populations/densities.
Is it possible for NOLA to reach 660,000? Yes. But I don't think it's possible by filling up what is there. It will take a huge, huge amount of multifamily construction...and that won't happen overnight.
I also think a lot of NOLA's current growth is still just repopulation. Yes, there are many new developments (just like in a lot of major cities)...but the big gains are a little bit deceptive, IMO. I think it will take at least another 5-10 years before we can start judging exactly how much NOLA is really growing rather than healing.
A lot of inner cities got double hit in the past 50-60 years from both white flight and a change in the American family makeup.
Now the phenomenon that interests me is gentrification. In a lot of areas where gentrification happens, lower income families (which tend to be larger) are being pushed out by higher income singles and couples. It's interesting to me because the population density tends to dip, even if there is rehab/redevelopment, and even if the overall vacancy rate drops.
So...even if these rebounding cities completely fill up their old units, they probably won't approach their peak populations/densities.
Is it possible for NOLA to reach 660,000? Yes. But I don't think it's possible by filling up what is there. It will take a huge, huge amount of multifamily construction...and that won't happen overnight.
I also think a lot of NOLA's current growth is still just repopulation. Yes, there are many new developments (just like in a lot of major cities)...but the big gains are a little bit deceptive, IMO. I think it will take at least another 5-10 years before we can start judging exactly how much NOLA is really growing rather than healing.
Actually, the studies have shown that 1 out of 5 people in the area didn't live here before Katrina.
The decrease in family size occurred to me too, but there is still a lot of room to grow within the historical (pre-60s/70s) footprint. We're at something like 370k now but there are still some neighborhoods (Lakeview, for example) that can probably absorb an increase of 25-30%.
Anyone who puts New Orleans on the level of San Francisco and Boston is not well-traveled.
If you fit the definition of "well-traveled" (read: well-informed), then I must be an astronaut.
As for the OP, I'm pretty sure most are aware of New Orleans' size; however, I do think there are those (namely the locals) who are a bit mislead on what the city doesn't offer, when placed next to the larger, more global American cities. For example, I've seen posters suggest that NO is a step up from any other city in the South, when, in fact, cities like Houston and Atlanta host a slew of opportunities and amenities that the Crescent City cannot claim.
If you fit the definition of "well-traveled" (read: well-informed), then I must be an astronaut.
As for the OP, I'm pretty sure most are aware of New Orleans' size; however, I do think there are those (namely the locals) who are a bit mislead on what the city doesn't offer, when placed next to the larger, more global American cities. For example, I've seen posters suggest that NO is a step up from any other city in the South, when, in fact, cities like Houston and Atlanta host a slew of opportunities and amenities that the Crescent City cannot claim.
I'm a native. My sister is completing her first year of residency at UT in Houston. We're under no illusions that the business climate here is on par with Houston, Atlanta, or Dallas. I just never get the same sense of belonging and enjoyment of life in those cities; they've always lacked the visceral intensity of home.
Actually, the studies have shown that 1 out of 5 people in the area didn't live here before Katrina.
The decrease in family size occurred to me too, but there is still a lot of room to grow within the historical (pre-60s/70s) footprint. We're at something like 370k now but there are still some neighborhoods (Lakeview, for example) that can probably absorb an increase of 25-30%.
I wouldn't doubt the first part...but it is still repopulation, IMO. I know some people moved away from the area and vowed to never come back (to the Gulf Coast in general) due to the emotional pain. But of course they are/have been replaced by opportunists looking to get in on the ground level of a rebuilding city.
I know NOLA can certainly handle more of an increase. I think the 2000 pop of 484,000 would be doable in maybe 15-20 years. I think it's after that where it will be tougher to increase. We are seeing a shift in preference among the younger generations as far as living in the central cities...but this will have to escalate quite a bit before NOLA can reach back to its historical high.
I'm a native. My sister is completing her first year of residency at UT in Houston. We're under no illusions that the business climate here is on par with Houston, Atlanta, or Dallas. I just never get the same sense of belonging and enjoyment of life in those cities; they've always lacked the visceral intensity of home.
Well, it's your home. I'm the same way. New Orleanians are practically my blood, but I'll never feel the way about NO that I do Houston. To me, it's more than just a better economy.
Keep in mind, I never said all of you think that way.
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. By the way are you from Nashville?
