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One Philly just absorbed lower rent buildings which drove the avergae flat as higher end continued to rise
Two The Multi family report is at the MSA level and there is increase within the city here and slowing demand in the burbs
Three - Yes job growth is key but that is actually increasing for the first time again since 2008 Philly does need to step up the job creation game IMHO residential development is not the isue for me its more jobs so will see on longer term absorbtion and demand if jobs dont increase (though the gains are actually positive when viewed against recent data point here.
All these without perpective or speific segment understanding can be misleading
Exactly. He has know idea what he's talking about and does not understand the dynamics of the region. Where Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, etc. are growing is mostly MSA growth (suburban growth). At least 75% of the Philadelphia area's growth is currently occurring in the city of Philadelphia.
Philly's rent growth is now 0% in the last quarter and 0% in the last month. Rent growth is one of the best indicators on how hot a market is for new apartment units.
No one is contesting that rent growth is a key indicator for demand, but you certainly cannot look only at one month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter measure to determine that.
As of the 1st quarter of 2015, here is annual data, which is much more telling and controls for quarter-to-quarter variations:
"1st Quarter Philadelphia Performance Highlights
The Philadelphia apartment market, hard hit during the recession, has struggled to regain consistently positive momentum since the downturn. Demand has been solid in spurts, only to be followed by periods of softness. Most recently, Philadelphia has experienced a slight slowdown in demand. The 3,165 units absorbed in the past year registered 350 units below the five-year average. However, roller coaster demand has left occupancy stuck around 94% to 95% and annual rent growth levels below 3% in most quarters over the past five years. Despite lackluster fundamentals, the metro has seen an increase in apartment development – likely a response to a growing Millennial population and general lack of newer stock – which has put pressure on high-development submarkets and top-tier product age niches. Specifically, units built since 2000 recorded year-over-year rent growth of 1.1%, compared to 2.9% for units built before 1990. Overall, Philadelphia represents the characteristics of a slow-and-steady-growth metro.
What changed this quarter? Philadelphia recorded modest demand and supply, resulting in a 0.1-point increase in occupancy in 1st quarter. Meanwhile, effective rents increased 0.9% quarter-over-quarter. Due to previous quarterly gains, annual rent growth came in at 2.5%."
So, no, job growth currently is not on the level of other cities, but as kidphilly noted, that 1.0% y-o-y increase in jobs is actually a far better showing than has been the case for the past several years. If anything, that number will likely continue to increase as the regional economy appears to be hitting more of a stride.
The y-o-y apartment rent growth rate stands at 2.5% as of Q1-2015, which is a respectable rate (it should not be much higher, in fact, or you run into major affordability issues, which is no good for any city). As noted above, and as Philly posters have always said, it is a "slow and steady growth" metro, and it doesn't have any reason to suddenly decelerate as you've indicated.
Under Construction FMC Tower at Cira Centre South – 49 floors – 730 feet - includes 268 luxury apartments
SLS International Hotel and Residences – 47 floors – 590 feet- includes 125 luxury condos
500 Walnut – 26 floors – 380 feet - 38 luxury condos
1601 Vine – 32 floors – 370 feet - 258 luxury apartments, 13 townhomes
1900 Chestnut – 27 floors – 341 feet - 280 luxury apartments
1919 Market – 29 floors – 337 feet - 278 luxury apartments
3601 Market – 28 floors – 320 feet - 364 luxury apartments
East Market – 21 floors – 281 feet - 322 luxury apartments
The Summit – 25 floors – 279 feet - Drexel Dormitory: 1,316 student beds
3737 Chestnut – 25 floors – 278 feet - 276 luxury apartments
One Riverside – 22 floors – 260 feet - 88 luxury condos
205 Race – 17 floors - 148 luxury apartments
One Water Street – 16 floors - 250 luxury apartments
Museum Towers II – 16 floors - 270 luxury apartments, 16 townhomes
Dalian on the Park – 10 floors - 293 luxury apartments
Of course, this doesn't include anything under ten floors under construction or recently completed like Granary, the Sansom, 401 Race, SouthStar Lofts, 410 Society Hill, 2400 South, or any townhome/rowhome construction, etc.
Nor does this include any residential conversions like Goldtex, Icon, 260 South Broad, Residences at Two Liberty, etc.
This also doesn't include any proposed, and there are some like Broad and Washington, Renaissance Plaza and 1300 Fairmount which are over 1,000 units.
Last edited by RightonWalnut; 07-09-2015 at 01:59 PM..
Exactly. He has know idea what he's talking about and does not understand the dynamics of the region. Where Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, etc. are growing is mostly MSA growth (suburban growth). At least 75% of the Philadelphia area's growth is currently occurring in the city of Philadelphia.
All of those cities are growing faster than Philadelphia. Their growth across the board is higher than Philly's, city and suburbs.
All of those cities are growing faster than Philadelphia. Their growth across the board is higher than Philly's, city and suburbs.
And that's fine, but these cities have nothing to do with the thread. This thread is only about Philadelphia and Boston. Can you not read the thread title? No one was claiming Philadelphia was the fastest growing city in the country. I'm not sure what's wrong with you.
You're still misunderstanding what I'm saying about Philadelphia. The majority of job growth and population growth in the region is in the city. And the majority of the job growth and population growth in the city is in the core. The core is booming, the entire city is not, the entire region is not. Do you understand? Clearly not because you do not know the current dynamics of the Philadelphia region.
Center City, University City, Navy Yard, South Philly, Lower North Philly, Riverwards, West Philly < Booming
Upper North Philly, Southwest Philly < Declining
Northeast and Northwest Philly < slow growth
South Jersey < declining to slow growth
PA suburbs < slow to moderate growth
DE suburbs < slow to moderate growth
Under Construction FMC Tower at Cira Centre South – 49 floors – 730 feet - includes 268 luxury apartments
SLS International Hotel and Residences – 47 floors – 590 feet- includes 125 luxury condos
500 Walnut – 26 floors – 380 feet - 38 luxury condos
1601 Vine – 32 floors – 370 feet - 258 luxury apartments, 13 townhomes
1900 Chestnut – 27 floors – 341 feet - 280 luxury apartments
1919 Market – 29 floors – 337 feet - 278 luxury apartments
3601 Market – 28 floors – 320 feet - 364 luxury apartments
East Market – 21 floors – 281 feet - 322 luxury apartments
The Summit – 25 floors – 279 feet - Drexel Dormitory: 1,316 student beds
3737 Chestnut – 25 floors – 278 feet - 276 luxury apartments
One Riverside – 22 floors – 260 feet - 88 luxury condos
205 Race – 17 floors - 148 luxury apartments
One Water Street – 16 floors - 250 luxury apartments
Museum Towers II – 16 floors - 270 luxury apartments, 16 townhomes
Dalian on the Park – 10 floors - 293 luxury apartments
Of course, this doesn't include anything under ten floors under construction or recently completed like Granary, the Sansom, 401 Race, SouthStar Lofts, 410 Society Hill, 2400 South, or any townhome/rowhome construction, etc.
Nor does this include any residential conversions like Goldtex, Icon, 260 South Broad, Residences at Two Liberty, etc.
This also doesn't include any proposed, and there are some like Broad and Washington, Renaissance Plaza and 1300 Fairmount which are over 1,000 units.
Another annnounced yesterday, wrt the latter, at Broad and Callowhill.
Under Construction FMC Tower at Cira Centre South – 49 floors – 730 feet - includes 268 luxury apartments
SLS International Hotel and Residences – 47 floors – 590 feet- includes 125 luxury condos
500 Walnut – 26 floors – 380 feet - 38 luxury condos
1601 Vine – 32 floors – 370 feet - 258 luxury apartments, 13 townhomes
1900 Chestnut – 27 floors – 341 feet - 280 luxury apartments
1919 Market – 29 floors – 337 feet - 278 luxury apartments
3601 Market – 28 floors – 320 feet - 364 luxury apartments
East Market – 21 floors – 281 feet - 322 luxury apartments
The Summit – 25 floors – 279 feet - Drexel Dormitory: 1,316 student beds
3737 Chestnut – 25 floors – 278 feet - 276 luxury apartments
One Riverside – 22 floors – 260 feet - 88 luxury condos
205 Race – 17 floors - 148 luxury apartments
One Water Street – 16 floors - 250 luxury apartments
Museum Towers II – 16 floors - 270 luxury apartments, 16 townhomes
Dalian on the Park – 10 floors - 293 luxury apartments
Of course, this doesn't include anything under ten floors under construction or recently completed like Granary, the Sansom, 401 Race, SouthStar Lofts, 410 Society Hill, 2400 South, or any townhome/rowhome construction, etc.
Nor does this include any residential conversions like Goldtex, Icon, 260 South Broad, Residences at Two Liberty, etc.
This also doesn't include any proposed, and there are some like Broad and Washington, Renaissance Plaza and 1300 Fairmount which are over 1,000 units.
Great list, here is what I could throw together for Boston. I just listed the projects with over 100 residential units:
Recently completed:
The Victor - 286 Units
Millennium Place - 256 Units
West Square - 255 Units
Radian Boston - 240 Units
Waterside Place Phase 1 - 236 Units
315 on A - 202 Units
Flats on D - 197 Units
Avalon Exeter - 187 Units
Under Construction:
One Seaport Square - 832 Units
Nashua Street Residences - 503 Units
Millennium Tower - 442 Units
Troy Boston - 380 Units
Pier 4 - 369 Units
One Greenway - 362 Units
The Point - 349 Units
Watermark Seaport - 346 Units
The Viridian - 342 Units
Ink Block - 315 Units
One Canal - 310 Units
Ava Theatre District - 298 Units
6 New Street - 259 Units
1350 Boylston - 240 Units
30 Dalton - 218 Units
Four Seasons Tower - 180 Units
Lovejoy Wharf - 175 Units
Van Ness - 172 Units
The Arlington - 128 Units
22 Liberty - 109 Units
Then we have some big starts planned for this year like the Copley Place Tower (542 Units) and TD Garden Towers (497 Units). Both are set to break ground in September - October. Also hopefully we finally get a groundbreaking date for The Government Centre Redevelopment (812 Units) and The Aquarium Towers.
There is also a bunch of infill and transit oriented development planned for Dorchester and Roxbury, good to see those areas getting into the game as well. Also I didnt bother looking into the Dorm buildings yet either.
Both cities are building a lot right now, both are in the top 10 or 20 nationally but neither is at the top. Comparing the 48 sqmi of Boston city limits to the 147 sqmi Philly city limits is a bit unfair and it is tough to get reliable data for either city or MSA. Boston is probably building more when measured by dollars according to the pros. It has more office space and higher commercial, retail and residential rents. It is producing more jobs and has a more robust economy.
Comparing square feet or the number of housing units is really difficult. The data becomes outdated really fast as projects are completed, projects change, and planned starts get put off. From what I see and read, I would say the two cities have comparable development scenes now. Certainly neither city is experiencing MUCH more development than the other.
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