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The public release of the estimates won't be until Thursday at 12:01AM Eastern, and media outlets are not allowed to release the information early. So you will have to wait a few more days.
I am most eager to see the Bay Area's CSA growth, the region should be over 8.7 million but we shall see.
Should cross 9 million in a few years (well before the 2020 census).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Happiness-is-close
Houston will most definitely go down in growth. My question is how much.... I predict less than 100,000 growth.
I seriously doubt that will happen. Its slowdown will be 20,000-35,000 max (from 156,000 to something like 135,000 or 120,000).
Houston grows by 100,000 alone off births minus deaths and immigration (constants regardless of economy - since the bulk of its immigration is refugee resettlement from Central America, Middle-East, and Southeast Asia).
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 03-22-2016 at 08:43 AM..
I'm interested in Monroe County, NY (Rochester) and Erie County, NY (Buffalo) because according to census estimates both have turned the corner (0-1% growth) and are growing again, but just barely so I'm interested to see if its a trend.
Monroe County has only had one census where it showed a population loss(1980). So, I don't know where you thought it lost people. Adjacent Ontario County is one of the fastest growing counties in NY State too. Saratoga County(Saratoga Springs/Albany metro), I believe is the fastest growing county in NYS.
Erie County is a different story, but is showing slight population growth. Onondaga County(Syracuse) has had slight, but steady growth for several years now and will be interesting to see if that continues. Albany, Schenectady and Rensselaer(Troy) counties likely have steady growth and has so for some years as well. Tompkins(Ithaca), Jefferson(Watertown), Warren(Glens Falls) and Clinton(Plattsburgh) are other Upstate NY counties that also come to mind in terms of population growth, among maybe some others.
2010-2011 is a 15 month cycle rather than a 12 month one (April 2010 - July 2011). My expectation is for all 3 places to post gains in 2015 but curious to see if deceleration continues to occur or if they actually accelerate. All of the Northeast Corridor cities have decelerated each year since 2010, with Boston doing so the least. The region and state numbers for 2015, released in December, showed the Northeastern United States cooling down by a whopping 40,000 people compared to how much it gained in the same time frame in 2014. So I don't expect anywhere in the Northeast Corridor to post any accelerations at all but am curious to see how far and how deep the deceleration is for everywhere.
If I didn't understand what was going on, I would've found the deceleration concerning but the reality is that the United States is now gearing back to pre-recession trends. The same states that were seeing a superboom prior to the recession (NV, FL, AZ - the leaders of the pack) are doing it again now.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 03-22-2016 at 12:35 PM..
Why did NYC grow 188k through in the heart of the recession and slow down as the national economy got better? Because people couldn't leave the metro when they wanted to? You'd think as the national economy got better overall, those metros would have accelerating growth.
I guess because of a bad economy, people had to stay put so high incoming net immigration + low outgoing migration + high birth/death ratios give you high growth in the large metros. When the economy gets better, the formula turns to high incoming net immigration + high outgoing migration + lowering birth/death ratios = slowing growth in the large metros.
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