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Making this a few hours early, primarily to get last minute predictions in, if people have those to share.
They are officially released tomorrow morning from 7 A.M. to 10 A.M. depending on which time zone you live in. Although speculation is several media companies already have the numbers and will begin releasing them periodically in the ensuing hours later today or tonight.
In standard manner I am going to do an overall compilation of PCSAs, possibly also group them with states, regions, and even the country as a whole to see how places stacked up at each level.
In the meantime, in the few hours prior to the information becoming public knowledge, you can use this thread to subscribe your expectations and/or predictions.
For what it is worth, the 2015 estimates are the big one. It is exactly in between census 2010 and census 2020 and will offer a half-decade snapshot of how places are doing and what territories have cause for concern moving forward and/or optimism. It is to evaluate trends and compare the growth and progression of America relative to decades of the past.
I predict Orlando to boom. Highest growth of the decade.
I expect Denver to slow down. The cost of living is to a point that only the stoned or the crazy would move there.
Is Florida really that cheap to live in compared to Denver? I'd figure most of the northern portion of the state would be (and maybe Orlando), but what about the coastal areas? Some pretty expensive pieces of property there...
My personal prediction is that Miami MSA surpasses 6 million (if not, then comes real close to it), the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex MSA surpasses 7 million (easily; probably falling just shy of 7.1 million), and that Washington D.C. MSA takes the 6th spot (handily) and moves up from currently being 7th largest MSA.
The horse race between Boston MSA, San Francisco/Oakland MSA, and Phoenix MSA is starting to get very tight and I feel if they keep pace how they have, they will all wind up around the exact same population in 2020. Hard to tell which one will be in the 10th spot by the next census. Not to mention the Inland Empire (Riverside/San Bernardino MSA) is also creeping into the same range as well, after revitalizing its growth engine following the Great Recession. Looks to be an interesting 4-way dynamic brewing up.
Denver MSA more than likely will hop over Baltimore MSA and Saint Louis MSA both, if not, will come extremely close to doing it. Portland MSA will probably pass Pittsburgh MSA. Austin MSA will probably pass San Jose MSA, Indianapolis MSA, and maybe (but not as likely) the Columbus MSA.
For CSAs:
Not much change for the really big markets. No major benchmarks passed nor much changing in the pecking order. Honolulu may pass 1 million but I expect it to likely just fall a few thousand short of that (and to pass 1 million next year). Perhaps Orlando CSA and Portland CSA switch places but that could go either way as both are exceptionally fast growth (Orlando CSA more so though). New Orleans CSA might pass Hartford CSA, but that looks like one of the only changes for this year.
CSA wise, it seems majority of the places will remain happily wed to their current ranks for at least another year.
I'm interested in Monroe County, NY (Rochester) and Erie County, NY (Buffalo) because according to census estimates both have turned the corner (0-1% growth) and are growing again, but just barely so I'm interested to see if its a trend.
I predict that they'll be lazy predictions that will be corrected at the next Census.
From the PCSAs that I follow year to year, they just seem to grow at a consistent rate or even a (more or less) consistent absolute number. To that end, I predict that the Raleigh/Durham PCSA will add about 38,000 and be at about 2,113,000.
WASHINGTON, March 21, 2016 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The U.S. Census Bureau will offer an embargo period for members of the media to view the latest population estimates for counties, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and Puerto Rico municipios.
The 2015 population estimates will be posted to the Census Bureau's embargo site at 10 a.m. (EDT) on Tuesday, March 22. The public release will be at 12:01 a.m. (EDT) on Thursday, March 24. Wire and distribution services are prohibited from distributing embargoed news stories and data files to subscribers before the public release date and time.
The new statistics will be available on census.gov through American FactFinder, QuickFacts and the Population Estimates Program Web page on Thursday, March 24.
My apologies everyone. I misspoke, they'll be released to the public in 2 days and to the various media personnel across America tonight. So looks like we'll have a pretty good idea either way before the official release on Thursday as it is.
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