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NYC is having a massive dropoff in units permitted this year, because a tax policy expired on Midnight last Dec. 31st. Basically they're going from 50,000 city units permitted last year to 15,000 city permitted this year (and basically 0 permits for rentals, since the tax law primarily affects rentals; luxury condos are mostly unaffected).
They're still mindlessly bickering over the particulars of the law, so developers are holding off on permitting new housing until the law gets passed. So basically there will be a burst at some undetermined future date, as the backlog gets filled. Suburban permits, of course, are unaffected.
I don't really get NYC's numbers...is there something indicating the metro area is about to have a large boom because based on state population growth numbers for CT, NJ, and NY, nothing suggests that is going to happen. Dallas metro grew by 145,000 and it's permitting 55k+ units annually so NYC would have to be expecting a 200,000 year growth and for that to happen, not only would immigration need to ramp up(which based on the new numbers we got, the reverse is happening) and domestic migration would need to stablized to a net 0 growth instead of the -100,000 net growth it's seeing. Seems like a huge overbuild. It's wierd though. NYC numbers this year are much more reasonable.
I don't really get NYC's numbers...is there something indicating the metro area is about to have a large boom because based on state population growth numbers for CT, NJ, and NY, nothing suggests that is going to happen.
Around 60k of those units are within NYC city proper. The NYC metro area outside the city only build ~27k units, which is consistent with fairly stagnant population growth.
NYC city proper is adding people, but it is offset by upstate losing people, so total NYS population growth numbers are low/negative.
Also, expect the 2016 construction numbers for NYC to be lower, since 421a tax breaks for condos were not renewed by DeBlasio and further building restrictions enacted.
I don't really get NYC's numbers...is there something indicating the metro area is about to have a large boom because based on state population growth numbers for CT, NJ, and NY, nothing suggests that is going to happen. Dallas metro grew by 145,000 and it's permitting 55k+ units annually so NYC would have to be expecting a 200,000 year growth and for that to happen, not only would immigration need to ramp up(which based on the new numbers we got, the reverse is happening) and domestic migration would need to stablized to a net 0 growth instead of the -100,000 net growth it's seeing. Seems like a huge overbuild. It's wierd though. NYC numbers this year are much more reasonable.
New York State is losing people, but New York City and metro is not. NYC is growing its fastest since the 1990s and 1920s.
Between Buffalo has increased 9,767 jobs with only 2,089 new houses between 2013 and 2015. Rochester increased by 6,883 jobs with 3,693 new houses. Buffalo has a shortage of over 4,000 new homes, while rochester only falls short 636. Poor Syracuse only gained 2,483 jobs with 1,977 new houses; they have too many houses.
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Census Bureau (2015 Annual): New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized, Unadjusted Units by Metropolitan Area
