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Old 08-28-2019, 01:52 PM
 
2,041 posts, read 1,527,248 times
Reputation: 1420

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Year end predictions (based on research of trends of last few years including 2019 and from the end of July numbers, when cities have amassed about 52-57% of their total)

St Louis - 205
Baltimore - 350
Detroit - 245
New Orleans - 120 (police department's estimate)
Memphis - 205
Washington DC - 175
Philadelphia - 360
Atlanta - 105
Chicago - 490
Newark - 60
Milwaukee - 75
Pittsburgh - 50
Charlotte - 110 (homicides up about 100% from 2018)
Columbus - 105
Houston - 255
Boston - 55
Los Angeles - 265
Winnipeg - 45 (homicides up 100% in this city as well from 2018)
San Francisco - 35
New York City - 270
Toronto - 50
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:01 PM
 
Location: New York
52 posts, read 36,492 times
Reputation: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
Year end predictions (based on research of trends of last few years including 2019 and from the end of July numbers, when cities have amassed about 52-57% of their total)

St Louis - 205
Baltimore - 350
Detroit - 245
New Orleans - 120 (police department's estimate)
Memphis - 205
Washington DC - 175
Philadelphia - 360
Atlanta - 105
Chicago - 490
Newark - 60
Milwaukee - 75
Pittsburgh - 50
Charlotte - 110 (homicides up about 100% from 2018)
Columbus - 105
Houston - 255
Boston - 55
Los Angeles - 265
Winnipeg - 45 (homicides up 100% in this city as well from 2018)
San Francisco - 35
New York City - 270
Toronto - 50
Nice prediction shows even more how safe NYC is if that comes true
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:02 PM
 
Location: New York
52 posts, read 36,492 times
Reputation: 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by RCD203 View Post
Dallas has had a terrible year with murders-violent crime. Over 100 so far the year.
Dallas hit 100 murders already? Yikes that’s bad for there standards
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Marshall-Shadeland, Pittsburgh, PA
32,620 posts, read 77,663,615 times
Reputation: 19102
Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
Year end predictions (based on research of trends of last few years including 2019 and from the end of July numbers, when cities have amassed about 52-57% of their total)

Pittsburgh - 50
Not a bad guess, but I'm even going to go out on a limb and hope for 40 for Pittsburgh. That would be the lowest we've had in years. 41 homicides in 2012 was our lowest count in a decade.

I also just found this cool tool for Pittsburgh:


https://www.alleghenycountyanalytics...ty-pittsburgh/
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:55 PM
 
2,041 posts, read 1,527,248 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OG 1 View Post
Nice prediction shows even more how safe NYC is if that comes true
Yeah. 135 as of June 30th compared with 156 by June 30th last year. New York Daily News said if it keeps going at that rate NYC will see 272 this year. Lowest since the 50s, although I remember reading that last year's 290 was the lowest since 1949. Either way that's huge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelCityRising View Post
Not a bad guess, but I'm even going to go out on a limb and hope for 40 for Pittsburgh. That would be the lowest we've had in years. 41 homicides in 2012 was our lowest count in a decade.
Yeah maybe. I just rounded by fives.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:35 PM
 
6,568 posts, read 12,070,061 times
Reputation: 5256
Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
Year end predictions (based on research of trends of last few years including 2019 and from the end of July numbers, when cities have amassed about 52-57% of their total)

St Louis - 205
Baltimore - 350
Detroit - 245
New Orleans - 120 (police department's estimate)
Memphis - 205
Washington DC - 175
Philadelphia - 360
Atlanta - 105
Chicago - 490
Newark - 60
Milwaukee - 75
Pittsburgh - 50
Charlotte - 110 (homicides up about 100% from 2018)
Columbus - 105
Houston - 255
Boston - 55
Los Angeles - 265
Winnipeg - 45 (homicides up 100% in this city as well from 2018)
San Francisco - 35
New York City - 270
Toronto - 50
I'm hoping Atlanta to finish lower than 100, or better yet lower than last year's total. Meanwhile I predict San Diego to finish with only 2 more than what it currently has.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:42 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
700 posts, read 423,103 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boreatwork View Post
DC at 112
Pg county 51
Is there a map or list of neighborhoods that can show the crime areas of PG County.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:09 PM
 
11,289 posts, read 26,221,630 times
Reputation: 11356
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayo2k View Post
Is B'more really that dangerous...?

Let us see, if the overwhelming majority of the victims belong to a specific group of people and on top of that are criminals themselves, that makes me wonder...

259 out of 309 had criminal records (219 for narcos)

291 out of 309 were black, meaning just 18 were non black in a city 62.80% black, so 37.20% of the population only saw 18 murders.
In another words, 37.20% of the population only experienced 5.82% of the murders while 62.80% of the population got 94.18% of the murder count...

This tends to be more like Chicago where the overwhelming majority are blacks, young black male young black male with a criminal record.
Chicago isr actually quite a bit more skewed than that. 25% of murders happened in 3 neighborhoods containing 4% of the population. 50% of murders have happened in 8 of the city's 77 neighborhods that have 13% of the city's population. 66% of the murders have happened in areas with only 20% of the population.
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Old 08-28-2019, 10:40 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
700 posts, read 423,103 times
Reputation: 491
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago60614 View Post
Chicago isr actually quite a bit more skewed than that. 25% of murders happened in 3 neighborhoods containing 4% of the population. 50% of murders have happened in 8 of the city's 77 neighborhods that have 13% of the city's population. 66% of the murders have happened in areas with only 20% of the population.
You can pretty much say this for most cities?
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Old 08-29-2019, 12:23 AM
 
817 posts, read 602,104 times
Reputation: 1174
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLoveFashion View Post
You can pretty much say this for most cities?
Exactly. The Chicago boast that "most crime happens where all the black and Mexican people are" isn't particularly convincing because 1. black people do matter and 2. a majority of Chicago's population is black or Mexican so most Chicagoans do live in proximity to violence and crime.
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