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Breaking today that the Silver Line Phase 2 by WMATA in DC is fully completed and tested and ready to open...
HOWEVER, it's not because they don't have enough trains to use. The 7000 series trains are the largest and newest fleet in the system and have been out of service for 1 year now. Only 20 out of 93 back on the system today. The independent safety commission for Metrorail has only authorized those 20 trains to be back. The goal now is by Thanksgiving rush to have trains going to Dulles Int'l Airport, but that could run past the deadline if they don't get enough trains back. I was at the airport last week actually, and things looked 100% ready with test trains moving over the tracks.
LA is expanding and adding more rail to core areas. That will generate more riders per mile than suburban extensions. I don’t know if it will catch or pass DC and Chicago in ridership but it should be in the ballpark. It very well could pass them because the D line and Sepulveda line extensions are projected to have very high ridership per mile. I think over 15,000 per mile.
But the bottom fell out of LA ridership even before the pandemic. DC to some extent as well. Now with wfh, who knows? I think that LA will be in the same tier as Chicago and DC but regardless of ridership I wouldn’t say that it will be better than DC given that DC has such a huge advantage in heavy rail rapid transit.
Yea, the D Line extension I think will do wonders for ridership with how built up Wilshire is, the retail density of Beverly Hills, the job density of Century City, and the large student population of Westwood combined with the continuing infill of Koreatown, Westlake, and downtown as well as potentially greatly improved Metrolink services going into Union Station. It's too bad the Crenshaw Line still doesn't have a timetable for an extension to do a transfer.
The other long extension that will likely finish within this decade is phase 2B of the Gold Line (currently L line, soon to be part of the A line) which won't get nearly as much ridership and will potentially even lower ridership per mile, but it's still good to have on the docket as it *is* more coverage and Pasadena is a fairly large secondary CBD. Hopefully Metrolink over the course of this decade will substantially up the frequency and operating hours of the San Bernardino line as there's a transfer to be made there. That with infill development and substantial bus services could make that into a major node in the network.
I think this is a great summary, and would like to see everywhere raise the bar in what rail options are available in their respective cities. I think going forward through much of this century the majority of rail expansions that are not commuter rail, but local transit systems we'll mostly see light rail as the option, or at least until construction and supply costs change.
My own personal wish was that the infrastructure bill actually added another $1 trillion to it for the actual "hard infrastructure", since that is such a tangible thing, and then later for some of the other additions.
Yea, I wish there was more for hard infrastructure as well especially if there was an interoperable standardization component to it. I also think a carrot for reform of transit agencies was in place as there are a lot of areas with multiple agencies that already have infrastructure in place that just aren't really getting their **** together like the balkanized Metro-North, LIRR, and NJT Rail commuter rail operations in the Tri-State Area and could dramatically make better use of even their existing infrastructure for much better transit. One of the examples of how bad this is was in the aftermath of 9/11 when there was a giant hole in the ground at the WTC site and the PATH train WTC station was shut down and needed to be rebuilt. The numbered trains of the NYC subway (IRT lines) are broadly compatible with PATH trains and the NYC Subway line's 6 train terminated in a loop around City Hall a short distance from the PATH-WTC station. With that, there was an initial proposal to have the NYC Subway 6 train have a short tunnel connection to the PATH-WTC tracks and to run a combined line that would've traversed under the existing tunnel under the Hudson River and go all the way to Newark and potentially beyond to the Newark airport which is one of the three major airports of the Tri-State Area. This would have been a boon for people in the region and changed a lot of trips into much better one seat rides. MTA was supposedly open to the idea, but PATH completely shut down that conversation.
I think commuter rail systems being converted to electrified and frequent services that through-run instead of terminate downtown in RER/S-Bahn type of systems, or to use more familiar US networks, something like BART and portions of the Washington Metro, is for a lot of major US cities the lowest hanging fruit for massively improving transit in a short amount of time. However, because the US isn't so familiar with these sorts of things and hasn't laid the legal, regulatory and funding groundwork for these "soft" barriers, it's a real uphill battle to get these systems off the ground despite needing far less "hard" infrastructure investments.
In terms of light rail, something like the still frequent, fast, and fairly high capacity systems that French cities have been piloting and many Japanese operators basically run could make them cheaper to build and run as well as more useful than how light rail has been done. Vancouver's Skytrain "light metro" system and Montreal's two REM projects are examples of that underway in the North American context and I hope they're successful and lead the way towards rapid expansion of good transit in the US.
I would be interested in hearing other people's thoughts in the tier below the Chicago, DC, Boston, Philadelphia, SF, and LA tier (LA's not quite there yet, but it will be pretty soon) though of Seattle, Portland, San Diego, Denver, Twin Cities, DFW, Atlanta, and Miami and whether that's a reasonable tier grouping, where they rank among each other now, and what projects are underway that might create a different ranking among them by 2030.
Quick note--I think BART for off-peak services should keep the 5 line system rather than reduce down to three, but keep the doubling of headway times from 15 to 30 minutes *except* for the Orange line (the one that doesn't go through the tunnel) which should remain at 15 minute frequencies, and run Friday and Saturday nights out until 2 am (early Saturday, early Sunday), but possibly without the Yellow and Blue lines as no one is going to/from Antioch or Dublin/Pleasanton at those times.
Are you talking about the subway or all of the trains? Just getting confused what the 200 mile number refers to exactly.
All trains (light rail + subways). The forecast 60 miles being built in the 2030s include: West Santa Ana Branch Light Rail to Orange County border, K Line North Extension through West Hollywood (fully underground light rail), Sepulveda Pass Rail Line between Van Nuys and E Line (likely subway), E Line Eastside Extension to Whittier (majority grade-separated light rail), C Line South Bay Extension (fully grade-separated light rail). These are all likely to be finished by the end of the 2030s precisely because that's what their most pessimistic funding estimates predict (the K Line North Extension was originally going to be delayed until 2047, until West Hollywood stepped in and offered to fund the acceleration of the project).
Last edited by xqcdblh456; 10-19-2022 at 08:41 PM..
It has to match others in ridership and efficiency to ever become a top 3 system, and again most of that track mileage is light rail. Systems like Metro in DC and Chicago L train, still both move more people, and on heavy rail. And for the Metro system in DC you have expansions happening much like LA and it's already far far ahead of LA in ridership. There's also a semi circular suburban light rail line being added around DC currently. LA appears to be adding a much more "comprehensive" system than it has ever had before, which should allow it to surpass a number of places with their ridership totals, but saying it's going to make it all the way to 2nd this decade or ever is assuming that it's the only system expanding or improving, which is not the case.
You would be surprised how many people light rail cars in LA can carry. It gets frequently crowded to the point only standing room is available, while frequencies are every 6 minutes for the trunk light rail lines serving the core of the city. A system like Chicago also suffers from overfocusing on a hub-spoke model with the central core at focus at the expense of non-downtown travel between major nodes outside it, whereas while LA's downtown is a major node in the current Metro Rail system, projects over the next 15 years will make LA"s rail network a very grid-like rail system.
LA's Rail System, Late 2030s:
Chicago L System:
Chicago's rail system is only planned for one extension of the Red Line south by 6 miles, and even that's currently unfunded right now. And in terms of ridership, sure Chicago's L carried 760K daily rail passengers in 2016, compared to the 2019 LA Metro Rail network's average 300K passengers/weekday pre-pandemic. Unlike Chicago, however, LA's ridership is being significantly boosted by the planned and under construction extensions:
K Line IOS (Opened, 2022): +30K daily passengers
D Line Extension to Westwood (Under Construction, Opens 2028): +110K daily passengers
K Line North Extension to West Hollywood (Planned): +90K daily passengers
E Line Eastside Extension (Planned): +20K daily passengers
West Santa Ana Branch LRT (Planned, Commences construction 2023): +60K daily passengers
Just these projects alone will boosts rail system ridership by ~ 430K riders/daily. And given Metro's historical tendency to underestimate ridership projections for its transit lines as show by the E and G lines, I'm confident these ridership projections are likely to largely pan out, especially as LA's post-pandemic rail ridership has recovered among the fastest in the country. The added ridership of these projects likely boosts Metro's daily ridership to make it at the very least on par with the Chicago L or Washington Metro in terms of ridership, if not more.
You would be surprised how many people light rail cars in LA can carry. It gets frequently crowded to the point only standing room is available, while frequencies are every 6 minutes for the trunk light rail lines serving the core of the city. A system like Chicago also suffers from overfocusing on a hub-spoke model with the central core at focus at the expense of non-downtown travel between major nodes outside it, whereas while LA's downtown is a major node in the current Metro Rail system, projects over the next 15 years will make LA"s rail network a very grid-like rail system.
LA's Rail System, Late 2030s:
Chicago L System:
Chicago's rail system is only planned for one extension of the Red Line south by 6 miles, and even that's currently unfunded right now. And in terms of ridership, sure Chicago's L carried 760K daily rail passengers in 2016, compared to the 2019 LA Metro Rail network's average 300K passengers/weekday pre-pandemic. Unlike Chicago, however, LA's ridership is being significantly boosted by the planned and under construction extensions:
K Line IOS (Opened, 2022): +30K daily passengers
D Line Extension to Westwood (Under Construction, Opens 2028): +110K daily passengers
K Line North Extension to West Hollywood (Planned): +90K daily passengers
E Line Eastside Extension (Planned): +20K daily passengers
West Santa Ana Branch LRT (Planned, Commences construction 2023): +60K daily passengers
Just these projects alone will boosts rail system ridership by ~ 430K riders/daily. And given Metro's historical tendency to underestimate ridership projections for its transit lines as show by the E and G lines, I'm confident these ridership projections are likely to largely pan out, especially as LA's post-pandemic rail ridership has recovered among the fastest in the country. The added ridership of these projects likely boosts Metro's daily ridership to make it at the very least on par with the Chicago L or Washington Metro in terms of ridership, if not more.
Yea, LA has a lot on its slate though I think the ones that are planned are far enough off that there's quite a bit of uncertainty about when they would finish and a long term view of 2040 does mean that it's conceivable for fairly nascent proposals in LA or any other metropolitan area including Chicago or Washington to get to completion as well. Regardless, it's definitely good to have a long-term plan.
I think something to note is that there's also that wide variation in commuter rail service in the US and what kind of ridership that brings and what its potentials are. Metra in Chicago pre-pandemic had an average daily weekday ridership of 274k riders/daily plus the South Shore Line 10k riders/daily compared to Metrolink's 38k riders/daily, so that's a significant difference. However, it's unclear how well either of these or other places will find ways to leverage these into even greater services and higher ridership.
Also as an interesting note for something like a 2040 kind of timeframe, but possibly impactful even by 2030, is that Chicago was built as a far more densely populated city and there are large swathes of the city served by the L train, but have since been greatly depopulated compared to the past. This means there's infrastructure in place that can support far higher ridership provided the underutilized and oftentimes vacant lots around the station become redeveloped which isn't that crazy of an idea.
The big "TLDR" of the last few pages of this thread is that places like SF and DC are expanding their systems into the suburbs, while Los Angeles has really only just begun building through its most close-in, dense areas.
There will likely be more people living within a five minute walk of the new Metro D line stations than there within a five mile drive from the new D.C. Silver line stations.
BART/Muni expansions are mostly just proposals, and the ones beyond that phase are going to the suburbs. I imagine people will continue to arrange facts as they see fit though, so BART can have its spot at the cool kids table with northeastern systems.
LA is expanding and adding more rail to core areas. That will generate more riders per mile than suburban extensions. I don’t know if it will catch or pass DC and Chicago in ridership but it should be in the ballpark. It very well could pass them because the D line and Sepulveda line extensions are projected to have very high ridership per mile. I think over 15,000 per mile.
But the bottom fell out of LA ridership even before the pandemic. DC to some extent as well. Now with wfh, who knows? I think that LA will be in the same tier as Chicago and DC but regardless of ridership I wouldn’t say that it will be better than DC given that DC has such a huge advantage in heavy rail rapid transit.
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but DC proper may see a major bump in future transit ridership overtime because of this:
I think DC would be the first city in America to pay for all residents to ride Metro regardless of income. WMATA has also dropped fare cost recently with nights and weekends dropping to a flat $2.00.
I think DC would be the first city in America to pay for all residents to ride Metro regardless of income. WMATA has also dropped fare cost recently with nights and weekends dropping to a flat $2.00.
Also hasn't been mentioned here that WMATA's got a new GM since just this past July, and some drastic changes in strategy look to be on the horizon. I know the newly renovated fare gates, may be getting tweaked again due to the influx of fare evasion taking place specifically in DC itself.
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