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So I don’t think it’s just the same Nashville (NVL) pôster mentioning this, but several posters that NVL’s peers aren’t even Atlanta and suggesting DC, LA. NYC etc. In multiple threads consistently.
Nashville has just started playing in the same sandbox as Austin, Charlotte, Orlando, Tampa as the high midtier southern cities and I’d add Raleigh, Jacksonville and Richmond to that same category.
I don’t know about Orlando and Tampa, but Nashville isn’t even adding as many people as Charlotte or Austin. Then there’s the “but we are building 500 skyscrapers.” Ok. Yet somehow Austin and Charlotte is still outpacing. Charlotte is adding more people and Office, Austin’s adding more than NVL in every category.
In fact, Nashville is losing ground to charlottes downtown in terms of population (and by far office) according to this Nashville report from Nashvilledowntown.com https://www.nashvilledowntown.com/_f...rt-updated.pdf
Both are nearly the same sq. Miles but it’s 20,000 vs. 12,200
Austin is even more dense than Charlotte and more populated than downtown Nashville yet it has 1/2 the land area. Downtown Austin is 16,000.
Per the article from NashvilleDowntown;
Quote:
While Nashville’s downtown population will grow significantly this year, there will only be a 3% increase between end-of-year 2018 and 2019. Indianapolis population growth numbers through the end of 2019 lead the group with a 13% increase, followed by Charlotte with 9% planned population growth. Indianapolis and Austin will both have double digit percentage growth in housing units over the next 18-months. Indianapolis expects 19% growth of housing units by year-end 2019 and Austin expects 14%. Charlotte projects a 9% increase.
So it just doesn’t make sense the metro isn’t growing as fast as Austin or Charlotte, the city isn’t growing as fast as Austin or Charlotte, downtown growth isn’t growing as fast as Austin or Charlotte... yet time and time again “ohhh, Nashville is next level, surpassing Atlanta, Chicago better watch out”. It just makes no sense. Exurbs are building more, have higher density, more office, etc. in some of these largest metro areas.
And another Nashville favorite to justify they’re just growing so hardcore when they have nothing else but a list of skyscrapers and demand everyone show a list of developments (which I question. All these developments yet still Austin and Charlotte continues to outpace Nashville’s downtown in population, office and for Austin, hotel also) is corporate relocations.
Again. This isn’t unique to Nashville. I believe Charlotte has gained 3 Fortune 500 HQ’s year to date.... not counting other expansions etc. Austin, I recall, has had some major wins, as has Atlanta and Raleigh and probably the others too.
I’m not anti-Nashville. I just don’t know how its posters are like. Living on another planet about the growth of Nashville?
I chose Austin for this poll. It was a fairly easy choice.
And FYI. Indianapolis. Another city on the list. It keeps flip flopping with Nashville of who has a more populated downtown. In the report, Nashville just became larger but Indianapolis was projected to take the lead again.
The growth has been good in Nashville. 94% growth in downtown population since 2010 back when it was 5k. But give me a break. It’s not where near the level of Atlanta and Austin is eating it’s lunch, Charlotte is outpacing it, and I’m not as familiar with Orlando and Tampa, but I’m sure they’re no slouches neither.
For most likely Austin is my pick, but really my answer is none. At least not for another three decades and by then it's really tough to predict with any certainty. But that is because the OP mentioned "world-facing metropolis" and "legacy urban metros." Had it simply been the title of "legitimately urban place" then I'd give every city listed some much better odds, with Austin and Nashville being at the threshold.
None of these cities will become densely urban cities on the order of our legacy cities. The infrastructure of these cities has largely been put into place to serve the needs of drivers, not pedestrians. Show me a sunbelt city that comes close to matching the urban fabric of Philadelphia or Boston. In the meantime, our legacy cities become even more accommodating to a denser population, with the proliferation of even more residential towers and infill in their core.
Even if our sunbelt cities slowly make modest steps to appeal to and attract those who appreciate the advantages of living in dense city cores, they will always be chasing our legacy cities.
I’m not anti-Nashville. I just don’t know how its posters are like. Living on another planet about the growth of Nashville?
People are excited about the momentum in Nashville. It's a great city and has been flying under the radar for quite a while. It's growth in specific measures is certainly noteworthy, especially one that are very visual (high rise construction), a new rail line, or the brand new convention center. It makes people feel like it's emerged as a big city.
But I do find it odd that the boosters like to overlook the fact that this "booming" city really isn't growing that fast relative to other cities or metros. For instance, amongst the 37 cities with population at or above 500,000, Nashville's growth rate (percentage) is 15th. That's pretty middle-tier and behind places like Portland and Columbus. In terms of absolute growth, it is 22nd, behind places like Mesa, AZ and Atlanta (both of which had smaller population to start with).
Portland, which is already smaller in population than Nashville, had larger population gain and percentage growth rate from 2010-2018 than Nashville, even despite being 1/3 of the area of Nashville.
The more you look at actual numbers the less impressed you are...
People are excited about the momentum in Nashville. It's a great city and has been flying under the radar for quite a while. It's growth in specific measures is certainly noteworthy, especially one that are very visual (high rise construction), a new rail line, or the brand new convention center. It makes people feel like it's emerged as a big city.
But I do find it odd that the boosters like to overlook the fact that this "booming" city really isn't growing that fast relative to other cities or metros. For instance, amongst the 37 cities with population at or above 500,000, Nashville's growth rate (percentage) is 15th. That's pretty middle-tier and behind places like Portland and Columbus. In terms of absolute growth, it is 22nd, behind places like Mesa, AZ and Atlanta (both of which had smaller population to start with).
Portland, which is already smaller in population than Nashville, had larger population gain and percentage growth rate from 2010-2018 than Nashville, even despite being 1/3 of the area of Nashville.
The more you look at actual numbers the less impressed you are...
Agreed 100% on all of this. Including the bolded because again, I'm not anti-nashville or trying to rain on anyone's parade or downplay it's growth.
None of these cities will become densely urban cities on the order of our legacy cities. The infrastructure of these cities has largely been put into place to serve the needs of drivers, not pedestrians. Show me a sunbelt city that comes close to matching the urban fabric of Philadelphia or Boston. In the meantime, our legacy cities become even more accommodating to a denser population, with the proliferation of even more residential towers and infill in their core.
Even if our sunbelt cities slowly make modest steps to appeal to and attract those who appreciate the advantages of living in dense city cores, they will always be chasing our legacy cities.
I disagree, primarily because once car-centric places like Toronto, Vancouver, Arlington (VA), Seattle, and San Diego have shown that it can be done. "Urban fabric" sounds more like a subjective architectural/urban design preference.
Cities like San Diego and Seattle will have downtowns that are comparable to legacy cities, possibly even better than some (Baltimore, Pittsburgh). The main difference is that they will not have the same extents or "feel" of urban residential neighborhoods found in legacy cities because (1) roadways aren't that narrow and (2) infill homes will not be so closely spaced.
Of this group, Columbus has the advantage.
It’s started the 20th and 21th centuries more urban than these other places. No amount of condo construction can make what was a town 30 years ago a truly urban place.
Nashville hasn't just decided it want to be a major player, it has BECOME a major player.
Nashville has a unique position among those on the list because it already has global recognition and has carved out a niche that it, alone, possesses. People in Moldova know what Nashville has to offer. Cramming a couple more million people into that place, paving hundreds of more square miles, adding more highways, more sprawl, and constructing yet more highrise buildings will make it just one more of a score of overstuffed and overhyped urban mega-tropolises. Some of the larger legacy cities have learned that lesson. If it isn't broke, don't fix it.
But there is always a developer out to make a buck: "What this place needs is more penthouses!"
Nashville has a unique position among those on the list because it already has global recognition and has carved out a niche that it, alone, possesses. People in Moldova know what Nashville has to offer. Cramming a couple more million people into that place, paving hundreds of more square miles, adding more highways, more sprawl, and constructing yet more highrise buildings will make it just one more of a score of overstuffed and overhyped urban mega-tropolises. Some of the larger legacy cities have learned that lesson. If it isn't broke, don't fix it.
But there is always a developer out to make a buck: "What this place needs is more penthouses!"
I highly disagree with that statement. Coming from Canada, I can assure you that the vast majority of people right next door know little to nothing about Nashville. Let alone people from Moldova.
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