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I imagine this is mostly due to the fact that Chicago and it's suburban counties are a much larger share of the state's total population. Over 8 million of Illinois residents live in the Chicago MSA. It's only a little over 4 million when it comes to PA residents being in the Philly MSA. Adding Pittsburgh will narrow that gap a little. But Pittsburgh's MSA is a lot less diverse than Philly's or Chicago's.
Chicago is so large relative to the population of Illinois that it dominates state politics. Both states have about 12.8 million people. Philly also borders New Jersey so a chunk of metro Philly votes in New Jersey and Delaware. Of the 9 million in the Chicago metro, only about 3/4 million are in Indiana and Wisconsin. Over a million of the Philly MSA is in New Jersey and another half million in Delaware.
FTR, since it's been referenced, the actual words James Carville uttered were:
"From Paoli to Squirrel Hill it's all Alabama in between."
Paoli is the historic western end of Philadelphia's "Main Line" suburbs, where Pennsylvania Railroad commuter service ended.
Squirrel Hill is an affluent neighborhood at Pittsburgh's eastern end; the Penn Lincoln Parkway — the highway that connects downtown Pittsburgh to the Pennsylvania Turnpike the way the Schuylkill Expressway connects Philadelphia to it at the other end — tunnels beneath it to enter the city proper.
The popular "Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other, and Alabama in between" paraphrase captures the gist of the quote.
Historically, both liberal Pennsylvania Democrats and conservative Pennsylvania Republicans tend to be more moderate and centrist than their counterparts in other East Coast states. It's only been within the past 20 years or so, post-Santorum, that you've seen a drift in the Republicans towards more solidly rightist candidates and officeholders; Democrats here remain center-left.
Do you think by default, this makes the state more Republican than Democrat?
And if something has made PA Republicans even more Republican, how come nothing has caused PA Democrats to move further to the left?
Chicago is so large relative to the population of Illinois that it dominates state politics. Both states have about 12.8 million people. Philly also borders New Jersey so a chunk of metro Philly votes in New Jersey and Delaware. Of the 9 million in the Chicago metro, only about 3/4 million are in Indiana and Wisconsin. Over a million of the Philly MSA is in New Jersey and another half million in Delaware.
I see your point. New York City has that quirk too...because of New Jersey. I guess like in Illinois, the population of NY is more concentrated near the City, than in PA (in PA's case, cities)
FTR, since it's been referenced, the actual words James Carville uttered were:
"From Paoli to Squirrel Hill it's all Alabama in between."
Paoli is the historic western end of Philadelphia's "Main Line" suburbs, where Pennsylvania Railroad commuter service ended.
Squirrel Hill is an affluent neighborhood at Pittsburgh's eastern end; the Penn Lincoln Parkway — the highway that connects downtown Pittsburgh to the Pennsylvania Turnpike the way the Schuylkill Expressway connects Philadelphia to it at the other end — tunnels beneath it to enter the city proper.
The popular "Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other, and Alabama in between" paraphrase captures the gist of the quote.
No, he said "from Paoli to Penn Hills." It's also a stupid, tired generalization. In 2012, Barack Obama won a higher percentage of the white vote in the most conservative Pennsylvania county (Bedford County) than he did in the state of Alabama at large. There's even a difference between conservatives in both states. Alabama is Mike Huckabee, and Pennsylvania is Ron Paul. Just take a look at the 2008 Republican primary results. Pennsylvania was one of only two states east of the Mississippi River (Maine) to give Ron Paul double-digits, whereas he barely moved the needle in Alabama.
By the way, the answer to the question posed in the title of this topic is resource extraction. You can overlay maps of all the oil, gas and coal fields in Pennsylvania onto a map of the partisan voting shift by county since 2000, and notice a near-perfect relationship between hydrocarbons in the ground and a shift toward Republicans. It's also worth noting that, while resource extraction is the bedrock of the rural Pennsylvania economy, agriculture is the bedrock of the rural Illinois economy, and though both industries have shifted toward Republicans in recent years, agriculture is still more Democrat than resource extraction.
If anything, watch the political climate in rural Pennsylvania come to resemble Montana, Wyoming and west Texas more than any other state it's ever been compared to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shakeesha
Pennsylvania is more rural and Appalachian influenced. Southern influence may be a factor as well, but would seem more so in Illinois favor. Pennsylvania feels more insular and colonial as well.
For what it's worth, I've seen more Confederate flags in rural Illinois than I have in rural Pennsylvania.
FTR, since it's been referenced, the actual words James Carville uttered were:
"From Paoli to Squirrel Hill it's all Alabama in between."
Paoli is the historic western end of Philadelphia's "Main Line" suburbs, where Pennsylvania Railroad commuter service ended.
Squirrel Hill is an affluent neighborhood at Pittsburgh's eastern end; the Penn Lincoln Parkway — the highway that connects downtown Pittsburgh to the Pennsylvania Turnpike the way the Schuylkill Expressway connects Philadelphia to it at the other end — tunnels beneath it to enter the city proper.
The popular "Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other, and Alabama in between" paraphrase captures the gist of the quote.
I actually took a recent drive to Chicago, drove straight through PA (Interstate 81).
I know its partially a joke, but I don't see the relevancy of "pennsyltucky". Geographically, PA is a beautiful state, and its generally dotted with little highway or mill towns that are down on their (more often than not).
I have driven extensively through The Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas and let me tell you, PA has nothing on them... The crazy religious presence I saw in South Carolina was unsettling.
I'm not sure if anyone's actually looked at the election results from 2016 in either state by county, but I'm seeing very similar results in downstate Illinois as compared to central Pennsylvania (i.e., margins of 70+% for Trump):
This really underscores the reality of the lopsided nature of Illinois' political/voting patterns, at least as of late. Of course, this massive rural/urban divide is widespread in practically every state. But I'm not sure many folks realize how pronounced it is even in states considered "deep blue" or "deep red" overall. States like New York and California portray a similar story.
I'm not sure if anyone's actually looked at the election results from 2016 in either state by county, but I'm seeing very similar results in downstate Illinois as compared to central Pennsylvania (i.e., margins of 70+% for Trump):
This really underscores the reality of the lopsided nature of Illinois' political/voting patterns, at least as of late. Of course, this massive rural/urban divide is widespread in practically every state. But I'm not sure many folks realize how pronounced it is even in states considered "deep blue" or "deep red" overall. States like New York and California portray a similar story.
Yeah, and in my view it is a depressing state of affairs. As someone who grew up in a rural, red county and now lives in a big city, I see so much misunderstanding from both sides. I personally blame an economy that leaves too many behind for this mess. In Pennsylvania, as a whole we have been unable to bounce back from the fall of coal and manufacturing in our state. Sure, some have had the fortune to succeed in some adaptive industries, and these are often the political moderate (minority). Sadly, the majority of our state (and country) remains divided.
Yeah, and in my view it is a depressing state of affairs. As someone who grew up in a rural, red county and now lives in a big city, I see so much misunderstanding from both sides. I personally blame an economy that leaves too many behind for this mess. In Pennsylvania, as a whole we have been unable to bounce back from the fall of coal and manufacturing in our state. Sure, some have had the fortune to succeed in some adaptive industries, and these are often the political moderate (minority). Sadly, the majority of our state (and country) remains divided.
Great Post. Being in Central PA. I certianly know damages the coal industry did and loss of it and manufacturing and textile industries have done.
Just for this thread. Did not change much as still more Red a region today in who really is voting. If more voted? It would be more purple for sure.
Pennsylvania also has a median age about 3 years higher than that of Illinois. Under the current party coalitions, having more senior citizens and fewer young adults gives Republicans a bit of an advantage - in addition to what they receive from comparatively lower racial diversity and urbanization levels.
I would be surprised if a Democratic nominee wins the White House without carrying Pennsylvania in the near future, especially Biden given his roots in the state. Trump did get a larger winning margin in 2016 in 28 other states, and Pennsylvania has since demonstrated a willingness to elect Democrats in other elections. Illinois is likely to remain non-competitive as long as the Republican party has little appeal to the vast of majority of large metro area voters, despite that dozens of its counties are no less solidly red than rural Pennsylvania.
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