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Especially when compared to Illinois. Both are largely rural states with big cities. We all hear about how Chicago dominates Illinois politics by a large margin, but why don't Philadelphia and Pittsburgh dominate Pennsylvania politics in the same way?
One answer might be that the Chicago metropolitan area takes up a larger percentage of Illinois population, but it doesn't by much at all. Both States have about 12.7 million people and the Chicago metro area is about 9.4 million, while the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas combined total about 8.4 million...literally just 1 million apart and getting closer.
Another reason given might be that Chicago is somehow more liberal than Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but this isn't true either, at least not in Philly's case. In the 2016 election, 83% of Chicagoans voted for Hillary Clinton, while 82% of Philadelphians voted for Clinton. Pittsburgh was a bit less, with I think we'll above 70%.
I know that more Pennsylvanians voted *against Trump than for him, but with the other votes split between multiple candidates, Trump won more votes in the state than any other candidate. 2016 was also the first election since 1988 I believe that Pennsylvania went Republican. If there was infact always enough conservative power in Pennsylvania to elect a Republican, how come it took until 2016 to get them all to vote?
So I mean, is Illinois really that much more democratic than Pennsylvania, or are there other factors at work here?
Firstly, I wouldn't say Pennsylvania is *so* conservative. It really is a light blue to purple state. It is only conservative relative to the rest of the Northeast.
The most straightforward answer to your question lies in the politics of metro Pittsburgh and the population disparity between metro Chicago and Philadelphia. Suburban Pittsburgh counties have begun to tilt quite red in the recent decades, and the margin continues to grow. Allegheny County itself only added a margin of ~100K votes for Clinton, and the surrounding suburbs essentially negated that margin. These suburban counties followed the trends of both the Rust Belt and Appalachia (of which they belong to both) in becoming an even deeper red in the 2016 election cycle.
Metro Philadephia of course was the big chunk of net votes for Clinton, but as you noted, metro Philadelphia is significantly smaller than metro Chicago.
Lastly, like much of the country, our rural counties went even redder than years past, thus culminating the 2016 result.
I wouldn't use the 2016 presidential election as an end all measurement, it was an odd election and PA (just barely) voted red for the first time in 30 years.
Overall, PA is a moderate to liberal leaning state with a different political setup / view compared to Illinois. But its not like comparing Illinois to Mississippi.
The rural communities in PA has have more sway, but the recent redistricting and midterm elections showed that PA is by no means a "conservative" state.
I will say, Pennsylvania will without a doubt be the most important state in the 2020 presidential election, and I would be shocked if it went to Trump again.
Imagine if Pittsburgh were located where Reading is, creating a general Philadelphia area of 8-9 million people, that is Illinois.
I don't necessarily agree with the logic of comparing Chicago to Philly + Pittsburgh relative to theoretical political influence.
It's true that in combined terms, they're pretty comparable in metro population levels. But Pittsburgh's metro is definitely not as uniformly liberal/Democratic-leaning as Philadelphia's. Allegheny County is "deep blue," for sure. But once you get outside of that core urban county, Pittsburgh's "collar counties" become fairly Republican very quickly--and more progressively conservative with less population density (as is the general rule). Generally speaking, mid-sized metro areas tend to not to be as "deep blue" as very large (4 million+) metros, so that's where the math breaks down. It's around 50-50% D/R split, as opposed to the 66-33% D/R split you tend to find in major metro areas.
So, I think you've answered your own question. Philadelphia certainly qualifies as a major Democratic- heavy metro area very similar to Chicago, but its scale alone is not replicated in its proportion of Pennsylvania's total population (approx. 33% of Pennsylvanians residing in Greater Philly [although that proportion is projected to rise] compared to at least two-thirds of Ilinoisians residing in Chicagoland).
It's my understanding that Chicagoland accounts for approximately 2/3 of Illinois' population. We can't forget that parts of Chicagoland are in Indiana, Wisconsin, etc. Similarly, parts of metro Philadelphia are in New Jersey.
I'd also be curious of the demographic breakdown of metro Philadelphia, just because Chicagoland is on the cusp of becoming majority minority at this point, and minorities have really been spurned by the modern Republican party.
Finally, Illinois has reliably gone Democratic in presidential cycles for decades now, and that has become cemented as Chicago's collar counties slowly turned purple and blue themselves. It also didn't hurt that Clinton was born in Chicago and grew up in Park Ridge, IL.
I don't necessarily agree with the logic of comparing Chicago to Philly + Pittsburgh relative to theoretical political influence.
It's true that in combined terms, they're pretty comparable in metro population levels. But Pittsburgh's metro is definitely not as uniformly liberal/Democratic-leaning as Philadelphia's. Allegheny County is "deep blue," for sure. But once you get outside of that core urban county, Pittsburgh's "collar counties" become fairly Republican very quickly--and more progressively conservative with less population density (as is the general rule). Generally speaking, mid-sized metro areas tend to not to be as "deep blue" as very large (4 million+) metros, so that's where the math breaks down. It's around 50-50% D/R split, as opposed to the 66-33% D/R split you tend to find in major metro areas.
So, I think you've answered your own question. Philadelphia certainly qualifies as a major Democratic- heavy metro area very similar to Chicago, but its scale alone is not replicated in its proportion of Pennsylvania's total population (approx. 33% of Pennsylvanians residing in Greater Philly [although that proportion is projected to rise] compared to at least two-thirds of Ilinoisians residing in Chicagoland).
It might be that Pittsburgh’s collar counties were mill towns that collapsed spectacularly rather than like Chicago, and to a lesser extent Philadelphia, outgrowths of suburban commuters and then suburban white collar job clusters.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-12-2020 at 11:53 AM..
Outside of Chicagoland, there are also liberal or Democratic (the two aren't exactly synonymous) enclaves found in the form of Champaign-Urbana, Rockford, Springfield, and maybe Bloomington-Normal and Quad Cities areas as well. These places may be small on their own, but they do have some impact on the state leaning even more to the left, and combined have a population of 750k-1.2 million. There is also Metro East (Illinois' side of St. Louis) that has 700k people and considering there is a pretty sizable Black population (St. Clair County is 30% Black of 260k), I believe they lean towards the left as well. I think the only city of some significance that is Republican(mayor is Republican) is Peoria, but from what I've read it's sort of a swing area. Dupage County (Chicago area) used to be solidly red, but in recent times(since 2016 during Hilary run I think) they have been become purple if not blue.
Last edited by Chicagoland60426; 04-12-2020 at 12:19 PM..
Pennsylvania is more rural and Appalachian influenced. Southern influence may be a factor as well, but would seem more so in Illinois favor. Pennsylvania feels more insular and colonial as well.
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