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Not really Buffalo would bleed to add ~ 105k people in 10 square miles outside the city to match Providence. That’s probably not happening.
I’d say it’s one that’s “close enough” that the legacy factor can pull it above Providence because other than parts of the East side, it may be somewhat depopulated but it’s largely cohesive. And for example, it’s transit ridership per capita is like 75% higher than Cleveland so it has some urban character beyond just population density.
Buffalo+Kenmore+ Lackawanna is 313k in 48 sq miles. If you just kind of assume Tonawanda is pretty much uniform density 50 sq miles is 321k.
I didn't think the Rust Belt stretched all the way to the Grain Belt.
Yes, it's on the Mississippi, and so is St. Louis, but I think the latter is industrial in a way Minneapolis isn't. (That's not to say Minneapolis has no industry; it does. But like Kansas City, it's better known for its role in the nation's food chain. Nor is it known for having lost either industry or population since 1950, while most Rust Belt cities, including Chicago, lost one or both.)
Minneapolis actually did lose significant population since 1950. It still is over 100,000 people short of it's peak in 1950. But it's still not Rust belt. I think most northern cities lost population since 1950 Rust belt or not.
I’d say it’s one that’s “close enough” that the legacy factor can pull it above Providence because other than parts of the East side, it may be somewhat depopulated but it’s largely cohesive. And for example, it’s transit ridership per capita is like 75% higher than Cleveland so it has some urban character beyond just population density.
Buffalo+Kenmore+ Lackawanna is 313k in 48 sq miles. If you just kind of assume Tonawanda is pretty much uniform density 50 sq miles is 321k.
I tacked Buffalo in the end because I felt it had more legitimate claim than the others. Pittsburgh has good urban form too and is relatively intact but in the case of Pittsburgh it’s density is just so far below imo.
Minneapolis actually did lose significant population since 1950. It still is over 100,000 people short of it's peak in 1950. But it's still not Rust belt. I think most northern cities lost population since 1950 Rust belt or not.
I’ve seen rust belt definitions go from Davenport Iowa to Portland Maine down to St Louis and West Virginia. Minnesota was never inlcuded
Not really Buffalo would need to add ~ 105k people in 10 square miles outside the city to match Providence. That’s probably not happening.
There are 2 mainly industrial census tracts in the southwest part of Buffalo that are just under 5 square miles (out of a total 40 for the city) and house only around 4800 residents. Just eliminating those 2 industrial tracts and adding 15 square miles of northern and eastern suburbs adds up to at or above 350k in 50 square miles. Most of the suburban tracts are over 5k density, and a few are over 10k.
The industrial tracts (current industrial and brownfield) hug Lake Erie and the Buffalo River, and therefore are not a part of the urban continuity that stretches to the north and east of downtown anyway.
This isn’t 1960 any more. Perhaps Buffalo? But other than that those cities don’t really come close to the filled out urban form Providence has.
Even Pittsburgh is maybe like 20 sq miles before you get to weird gerrymandering up and down valleys.
It’s kind of like the Baltimore vs Seattle debate.
I'm not sure why you're using the term "gerrymandering," nor am I sure why you're referring to the 1960s.
You can still measure contiguous urbanism, even if it's not consistent in every direction. Population density within a 50 sqmi area is also another critical indicator that Pittsburgh absolutely overtakes Providence.
Pittsburgh has an unquestionably more urban downtown than Providence, for starters.
You do realize that a neighborhood like this is the predominant vernacular of Providence, right?
Whereas this is the predominant vernacular of Pittsburgh, to say nothing of its rowhome areas that don't exist in Providence.
There are 2 mainly industrial census tracts in the southwest part of Buffalo that are just under 5 square miles (out of a total 40 for the city) and house only around 4800 residents. Just eliminating those 2 industrial tracts and adding 15 square miles of northern and eastern suburbs adds up to at or above 350k in 50 square miles. Most of the suburban tracts are over 5k density, and a few are over 10k.
The industrial tracts (current industrial and brownfield) hug Lake Erie and the Buffalo River, and therefore are not a part of the urban continuity that stretches to the north and east of downtown anyway.
Idk I’m pretty sure Providence/Pawtucket/Central Falls/North Prov/East Prov has industrial areas too…
I’ve seen them (especially Providence and Pawtucket) , idk about 5 miles but this is a long and slippery slope.
Buffalo is a larger urban area but if it matches Providence in 50 square miles? It’s very close, by your numbers Providence is still slightly more dense - thats not all that’s urbanity of course. But the original claim made things sound like something it isn’t
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