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We're not going to get that unless the Census starts publishing data on birthplace down to the county level. And even that's imperfect since a lot of people living in South Jersey were born in Pennsylvania, people living in Maryland were born in the District of Columbia, etc.
There's never going to be a perfect measure, but we can clearly see that there's a very strong correlation here between place of birth and outmigration, so I think it's reasonable to conclude that a large bulk of people moving from Brooklyn to the Philly area are natives. The birthplace data and outmigration data line up rather neatly.
The bottom line is that I would expect to see more migration from Brooklyn to Philly compared to other metros because there are more native Pennsylvanians living in Brooklyn. It's not surprising. It's the same with strong migration from Brooklyn to Los Angeles given the large number of native Californians living in Brooklyn.
Well, the interesting thing there is, if I understand your rank order correctly, more Brooklynites move to Philadelphia than to LA, but there are more native Californians living in Brooklyn than native Pennsylvanians.
Then again, there's the proximity issue I brought up. Chances are that Californians coming to Brooklyn come from all three of the state's biggest metros in similar numbers rather than disproportionately from one, since you have to travel ~3,000 miles to get from any one of them to NYC and vice versa, while you travel only 100 between NYC and Philly.
I did say that taking the number of Pennsylvania-born Brooklynites and multiplying it by 0.72 should give us a rough answer, and if 72% of all Pennsylvanians moving to New York come from Greater Philadelphia, it should. If a New Jerseyan who moves to New York was born in Pennsylvania, then for the purposes of this stat, that person's a native Pennsylvanian.
Well, the interesting thing there is, if I understand your rank order correctly, more Brooklynites move to Philadelphia than to LA, but there are more native Californians living in Brooklyn than native Pennsylvanians.
Then again, there's the proximity issue I brought up. Chances are that Californians coming to Brooklyn come from all three of the state's biggest metros in similar numbers rather than disproportionately from one, since you have to travel ~3,000 miles to get from any one of them to NYC and vice versa, while you travel only 100 between NYC and Philly.
I did say that taking the number of Pennsylvania-born Brooklynites and multiplying it by 0.72 should give us a rough answer, and if 72% of all Pennsylvanians moving to New York come from Greater Philadelphia, it should. If a New Jerseyan who moves to New York was born in Pennsylvania, then for the purposes of this stat, that person's a native Pennsylvanian.
No, Los Angeles has much larger population exchanges with Brooklyn than the Bay Area and San Diego, which makes sense considering it is the 2nd largest MSA in the country.
I think the reason for greater out-migration to Philly is simple: It is much easier to move home when home is 80 miles away compared to 2,793 miles away.
On the migration point: The top states (outside of the NYC metro) where people living in Brooklyn, NY were born.
California
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
The top recipients of people moving from Brooklyn, NY.
Philadelphia Metro
Philadelphia - 2,379
Burlington County - 557
Montgomery County - 362
New Castle County - 290
Chester County - 251
Bucks County - 217
Camden County - 205
Gloucester County - 119
Delaware County - 77
Total: 4,457
Los Angeles Metro
Los Angeles County - 3,552
Orange County - 413
Ventura County - 71
Total: 4,036
Boston Metro
Suffolk County - 1,120
Middlesex County - 943
Bristol County - 846
Essex County - 412
Norfolk County - 320
Plymouth County - 58
Total: 3,699
Washington, DC Metro
District of Columbia - 720
Montgomery County - 380
Fairfax County - 232
Prince George's County - 228
Arlington County - 158
PWC - 101
Loudoun County - 78
Alexandria City - 74
Charles County - 36
Total: 2,007
There are more people moving from Brooklyn to the suburbs of Philly then there are moving to the DMV as a whole. To me, that indicates that the migration patterns are largely a product of people returning to their hometowns.
Not sure if this applies to other communities, but I know that in recent years a good number of recent immigrants from China and Chinese from parts of Southeast Asia who moved first to New York City including the Brooklyn Chinatowns have decamped for Philadelphia and its suburbs. I'm wondering if that's happening with any other immigrant communities.
By "paying New York prices for the Philadelphia experience," they're getting less than they bargained for. And for all its cultural, social and other treasures, no one would call Brooklyn even "Manhattan lite." Manhattan — which, for most outsiders, defines "the New York experience" — is sui generis and unmatched even by New York's own outer boroughs.
For one, I still disagree that they're getting "the Philadelphia experience." They're paying New York prices to get the New York experience. Putting aside your comment about cultural treasures and all that--as if people living in Brooklyn can't enjoy the entire city of New York--the experience of living in Brooklyn can be very different from the Philadelphia experience based on the energy, vibe and the social scene alone. Events that might happen once a month or once a summer in Philly might occur once per week in Brooklyn, if not more. So for some people that is part of "the New York experience."
No, Los Angeles has much larger population exchanges with Brooklyn than the Bay Area and San Diego, which makes sense considering it is the 2nd largest MSA in the country.
I think the reason for greater out-migration to Philly is simple: It is much easier to move home when home is 80 miles away compared to 2,793 miles away.
Chinese immigrants who made New York their first stop have moved on to Philadelphia in significant numbers. And they're not settling in or near the city's historic Chinatown. The neighborhood most of them have chosen to settle in is Mayfair, a neighborhood in Northeast Philadelphia that had historically been Irish-American predominantly. (I know the former owner of a bar at Mayfair's southern edge that was called one of the 50 best in the country by Esquire magazine in the mid-2000s. It was a beer lover's Valhalla. The owner now runs a craft brewery out of another brewer's facility in Bensalem, Bucks County.) And the Northeast in general has become Philadelphia's immigrant magnet.
I attended a town hall meeting in the Northeast back in 2022 to discuss plans for building a long-discussed but still-unbuilt subway line under Roosevelt Boulevard. I met the New Yorker who has pushed hardest for it at the event, and he's now part of my circle of transit geeks. (Here's my interview with him from December 2022.)
At that town hall, which was called by the state representative whose Central Northeast district includes Mayfair, about 50 Chinese Mayfair residents showed up en masse. Their chief request was that information about the Boulevard subway proposal be made available in Chinese, including on the Web.
The proposed subway line will pass about a mile to Mayfair's west. This should tell you something about how these new Philadelphians have gotten up to speed on local issues. As of 2020, Mayfair's Chinese-American immigrant community numbered some 4,800, the highest concentration of Chinese immigrants in the city.
And they also throw a monkey wrench in the argument that most of the net migration from Brooklyn to Philadelphia consists of people returning home. They might still be a majority, but when you consider that over the course of the 1990s, the net migration towards Philadelphia from Brooklyn numbered somewhere just north of 20,000, they probably make up a huge share, maybe even a majority, of the net migrants since then.
Last edited by MarketStEl; 05-08-2024 at 09:03 AM..
I think the reason for greater out-migration to Philly is simple: It is much easier to move home when home is 80 miles away compared to 2,793 miles away.
I don't recall the thread, but didn't you also cite Census data at one point indicating that a majority of Philadelphia residents, at this point, were not born in any state comprising the Philly metro area (or at least, outside of the region)?
Wouldn't that suggest that a substantial portion of in-migrants to Philadelphia are likely not, in fact, natives?
For one, I still disagree that they're getting "the Philadelphia experience." They're paying New York prices to get the New York experience. Putting aside your comment about cultural treasures and all that--as if people living in Brooklyn can't enjoy the entire city of New York--the experience of living in Brooklyn can be very different from the Philadelphia experience based on the energy, vibe and the social scene alone. Events that might happen once a month or once a summer in Philly might occur once per week in Brooklyn, if not more. So for some people that is part of "the New York experience."
Remember, I also said my tongue was at least partly in my cheek.
I can give you an analogous comment to my own, from the 1979 Harvard University Class Day (the day before Commencement, when the graduating class hears speeches from their own classmates. I worked as an usher that day, which was why I got to hear it.)
The fellow who delivered the Ivy Oration — a humorous speech meant to make light of Harvard, its traditions and the graduating class — explained that he had a hard time trying to define "the Harvard experience." He said that he couldn't find a definition in the dictionary for "Harvard" (the one he cited was for the word "harvest") and gave up at "experience."
"So I decided to take my Harvard experience downtown and have it assayed," he said. "The jeweler told me I was paying $6500 a year* for the Tufts experience. I don't know how widespread this scam is, but I suspect it will go on as long as there are Ohioans."
What I say here is the exact parallel of that joke. You need to be a little less literal to get it, and I was being a little too literal in explaining it.
*Remember, this was the 1970s, before college tuition shot through the roof. Tuition, room and board at Harvard at the time was actually about $12,000 per year. —MSE '80 (AB '87)
And they also throw a monkey wrench in the argument that most of the net migration from Brooklyn to Philadelphia consists of people returning home. They might still be a majority, but when you consider that over the course of the 1990s, the net migration towards Philadelphia from Brooklyn numbered somewhere just north of 20,000, they probably make up a huge share, maybe even a majority, of the net migrants since then.
So it throws a monkey wrench into the argument that most of the outmigration is people returning home while you concede in your second sentence that "they might still be a majority." Aren't you contradicting yourself here?
I think the data more or less throws a monkey wrench into your narrative of Brooklyn urbanistas moving to Philly to get "the Brooklyn experience at Philadelphia prices." Sure, I am certain that there are *some* people who are originally from Ohio who took Amtrak down to Philly for a weekend, fell in love with it and opened an artisanal mayonnaise shop/yoga studio. But the majority are likely people moving back to where they came from, just as the outmigration from Brooklyn to California is likely people moving back to where they came from. I don't think it's a coincidence at all that Brooklyn has more natives from PA than any other state (aside from CA) and that it also has more outmigration to Philadelphia than to any other county on the Eastern seaboard.
We're just looking at the data differently. You look at the data and see a mass trend of Brooklynites recognizing Philly's coolness and deciding to move there. I look at the data and think that people are simply moving home. This is especially the case seeing that Philly's suburbs receive more in-migration from Brooklyn than the entire DC metro area.
I don't recall the thread, but didn't you also cite Census data at one point indicating that a majority of Philadelphia residents, at this point, were not born in any state comprising the Philly metro area (or at least, outside of the region)?
I don't remember saying that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
Wouldn't that suggest that a substantial portion of in-migrants to Philadelphia are likely not, in fact, natives?
Listen, I'm not saying that there are no non-PA natives moving to Philly from BK. I am saying, however, that claims of the "Brooklynization" of Philadelphia you see in Philly Mag and other Yuppie media outlets are vastly overblown.
When I post data showing that the states with the most natives living in Brooklyn *surprisingly* have the most in-migration from Brooklyn, the reaction is sort of this collective "I dunno" shrug. Instead of making any deductions from the data, I will instead leave it you guys to postulate a theory as to why this might be the case.
So it throws a monkey wrench into the argument that most of the outmigration is people returning home while you concede in your second sentence that "they might still be a majority." Aren't you contradicting yourself here?
I think the data more or less throws a monkey wrench into your narrative of Brooklyn urbanistas moving to Philly to get "the Brooklyn experience at Philadelphia prices." Sure, I am certain that there are *some* people who are originally from Ohio who took Amtrak down to Philly for a weekend, fell in love with it and opened an artisanal mayonnaise shop/yoga studio. But the majority are likely people moving back to where they came from, just as the outmigration from Brooklyn to California is likely people moving back to where they came from. I don't think it's a coincidence at all that Brooklyn has more natives from PA than any other state (aside from CA) and that it also has more outmigration to Philadelphia than to any other county on the Eastern seaboard.
We're just looking at the data differently. You look at the data and see a mass trend of Brooklynites recognizing Philly's coolness and deciding to move there. I look at the data and think that people are simply moving home. This is especially the case seeing that Philly's suburbs receive more in-migration from Brooklyn than the entire DC metro area.
I said net migration, which is the difference between in- and out-migration. Probably many more people move between the two cities (city and NYC borough) than the net figure tells you. (The citywide net difference is also in Philadelphia's favor; the only NYC borough that gets a net influx of Philadelphia residents is Manhattan, and the net out-migration from the other four swamps that figure.)
And I do get the vibe from you that you can't quite figure out why there's net migration from the Big Apple towards a city that's clearly inferior. Is it really? I'd like to direct you to this quote in that New York Times article from Haitian-American chef Sylva Senat, who made the Brooklyn-to-Philadelphia trip and had a meteoric rise in the city's restaurant community once here:
Quote:
Mr. Senat and his wife got an apartment right there in Old City. “We are definitely New Yorkers at heart; we like the busyness, and we like the bustle,” he said. “Once we got to Philadelphia it was like, ‘O.K., not all major cities are as crazy as New York, and they don’t have to be in order to be great.’”
Mr. Senat said his friends in New York have inquired about Philadelphia, because they realize it’s just “easier to do things” in a city with about a million fewer people than Brooklyn. He relishes walking into a restaurant in the nicest part of town at 11:15 on a Sunday morning and immediately sitting down for brunch without a reservation. “It wasn’t like a big, you know, ‘Let’s plan this for six hours and let’s do it for two hours,’ which I think kind of happens in New York,” he said. “You have to be very specific about what you want to do and where you want to go, or else: ‘O.K., now we’re wandering around New York City.’”
(Senat appears to be a better chef than business manager; all the restaurants he has opened and helmed here have gotten good reviews but closed within two years of their opening. (One of those is now a Gayborhood bar whose owners I know; they're an Indian-American gay immigrant couple one half of which migrated here from South Africa.) Senat now runs a virtual restaurant in Cherry Hill, on the New Jersey side of the area.)
As I said, a difference in scale may not imply a difference in quaiity. Unless the quality you prize in this case is the extreme hustle and bustle. I'd also like to suggest that there are even some native New Yorkers who would rather get their big-city pleasures with less hassle and at a more relaxed pace. (Here's another one, who my colleague Victor Fiorillo interviewed. I think that quote he attributes to someone else at the end captures the dynamic well: "It's like 80 percent of New York at 20 percent of the cost.")
Also: no, I'm not contradicting myself, if you consider degrees of accuracy. The impression I got from your comments was that the great bulk (let's say for sake of argument 75% or greater) of the net migrants were returning to their roots. If that figure's only 51%, I'd say that amounts to a qualitative as well as a quantitative difference.
Last edited by MarketStEl; 05-08-2024 at 09:28 AM..
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