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Austin’s median home price is down somewhere in the 7% range. There was a separate set of data that I came across that pointed to Austin as ground zero of the ongoing correction, though it looks like the Bay Area has taken over at 10%. Every other city east of Colorado has seen appreciation. Austin is the only outlier.
What’s interesting is that Austin’s suburbs are still relatively affordable, especially given income levels of the metro. It still seems like a good place to buy.
San Francisco’s correction is interesting, if only because a 10% hit on a $2M SFH is steep in raw dollars. I do wonder if it’s a result of lay offs and company devaluation, or if it’s really just buyer confidence.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have Miami at a >12% appreciation YoY. Maybe Miami has more staying power than most of us believed. It doesn’t look like it’s going to repeat what happened in 2008, that’s for sure, though I’d assume the growth will slow down at some point soon.
In the end - As someone alluded to upthread - Cheaper markets that have seen only modest appreciation are the ones in hyper growth mode now. Buffalo, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Hartford, Kansas City, Worcester. These cities help absorb the interest rate hike, and give folks the option to choose the neighborhood and house.
Yeah I feel Austin is actually a good bet right now. The salaries are congruent with the cost of living, the suburbs are super affordable there which is rare for an area that’s had explosive growth especially during COVID.
You know, I had the same thought myself. But I’ve been there twice over the last 12 months, two weeks and one weekend. It’s my favorite southern city, aside from maybe Atlanta.
It’s still relatively quiet, relatively slow, relatively small in feel. I understand the infrastructure isn’t built to absorb the amount of people that have moved there, but it’s decades away from any level of legacy northern city congestion. To me, it still feels more like Denver than even Seattle. Austinites will fight me tooth and nail on this, but it still feels much more “pleasant” and “easy “ than many other major metros. Certainly compared to our hometown of Boston.
If it can grow in a way that makes everyday conveniences available, including offices, north/south/west of the city into the suburbs, I think it can sustain a lot more boom.
That said, the natural elements pose an issue, like water availability especially during drought. So I’d think that’s the biggest concern.
No i was using the same anecdote GeoffD gave in the Boston forum. Not exaggerating. I wasn't even thinking of a specific house.
What anecdote is that? I grumbled recently that the Massachusetts real estate thread is all people linking to million dollar ranches in undesirable towns. I don’t surf metro Boston real estate and post those. I’m retired. I live on the coast an hour out of the city. You can’t possibly commute to the high wage metro Boston job market from here. Housing here is comparatively affordable.
Massachusetts is the #1 in the country for per-capita disposable income (after tax income). A smidge ahead of Connecticut. It’s the highest percentage of college educated adults in the country. It’s all concentrated in metro Boston. It’s one of the most socioeconomically segregated places in the country with fortress zoning and staggering real estate prices in the high income towns. It takes huge money to buy into those towns. There is huge inward migration of white collar professionals who all want to live in those places.
What anecdote is that? I grumbled recently that the Massachusetts real estate thread is all people linking to million dollar ranches in undesirable towns. I don’t surf metro Boston real estate and post those. I’m retired. I live on the coast an hour out of the city. You can’t possibly commute to the high wage metro Boston job market from here. Housing here is comparatively affordable.
Massachusetts is the #1 in the country for per-capita disposable income (after tax income). A smidge ahead of Connecticut. It’s the highest percentage of college educated adults in the country. It’s all concentrated in metro Boston. It’s one of the most socioeconomically segregated places in the country with fortress zoning and staggering real estate prices in the high income towns. It takes huge money to buy into those towns. There is huge inward migration of white collar professionals who all want to live in those places.
I think the best, most accurate description of MA is 1 Boston + 9 Providences. That said, MA is relatively easy on middle-income families (outside of the Boston metro area), assuming that one spouse/parent in the family/household is able to secure a well-paying job. Many towns in Western MA are within commutable distance to Albany or Hartford, which allow some residents to “cast a wider net” than just Springfield and/or Worcester. I think Western MA is a lot more economically connected than anywhere in ME, NH and VT, and people out there are less averse to driving long distances (than people in RI and eastern MA).
Returning to attainable home value prices that people outside of tech and medicine can afford.
ie., a Ranch in a dumpy suburb of Boston going for $500k instead of $1mil.
I’m not sure how that’s going to happen when these towns outside Boston have highly restricted zoning and rarely build new SFH lots anymore.
And upzoning doesn’t always reduce prices either. In Seattle where there is extremely lax zoning compared to Boston, shack-like ranch prices are $1M because they simply aren’t building them anymore and the land that the ranch house sits on can build four townhouses. Greater Seattle area has an urban growth boundary to protect the natural environment surrounding it, so you cannot continue to sprawl out with new SFH construction like Texas cities.
What you’re basically hoping for is for incomes of people who work in tech and medicine, generally smart people, to come down to the national median. Or some place like Texas where there is an illusion of infinite land to continue building SFHs.
I think the best, most accurate description of MA is 1 Boston + 9 Providences. That said, MA is relatively easy on middle-income families (outside of the Boston metro area), assuming that one spouse/parent in the family/household is able to secure a well-paying job. Many towns in Western MA are within commutable distance to Albany or Hartford, which allow some residents to “cast a wider net” than just Springfield and/or Worcester. I think Western MA is a lot more economically connected than anywhere in ME, NH and VT, and people out there are less averse to driving long distances (than people in RI and eastern MA).
Nearly every State has much of what you describe, away from the largest city. Not sure MA is unique in this way, not to say you’re incorrect at all.
I guess the market thinks we can just keep finding bodies of water to divert to Arizona and Nevada
Arizona is converting farmland to cities. Trading less valuable cotton, citrus, and corn fields for higher GDP created in urban areas. We use less water now than 40 years ago and that's without any strong attempts (cost of water) to conserve. More population does not equal more water use in Phoenix or Arizona.
The real issue our national food supply, winter vegetables in particular, as Imperial Valley and the Yuma areas produce a majority of the nation's winter vegetables. The water issues on the Colorado River may cause the entire food network to need revamping. https://www.12news.com/article/news/...4-63784044002f
Weren't Phoenix and Boise ground zero for the housing boom? I would them to see relatively large decreases.
Phoenix was not, there is a growing housing shortage in the valley and it's not showing any signs of letting up. Price declines already appear to have leveled here but we'll see what happens.
The metro area has a combination of high population growth, a lot of new high paying jobs coming in like this, (TSMC to up Arizona investment to $40 billion with second semiconductor chip plan) and many desirable parts of town are now landlocked (Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert for example).
- 300 new residents move to Phoenix/Maricopa County every day.
- 100,000 is the estimated Phoenix housing shortage by Common Sense Institute Arizona
- Median home prices seem to have leveled, holding steady around $415,000 over the past few months
- New home starts are down, The Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA down 60.2% in January 2023 over January 2022.
Now you’re just exaggerating. Plenty of ranches and splits across very livable suburbs <$700k. No my favorite collection of suburbs, but dumpy certainly wouldn’t be used to describe most of these.
You can find them for $500k or less in the truly “dumpy” suburbs, especially south of the city. Wouldn’t be my choice, but..
$700k is affordable?
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