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So I grew up in Killeen. It has had a significant Black population for a minute. But growing up in the 90s, it was always the second largest but not close to being near the White population. Now I see the demographics stats and I am floored for the city alone. I bet 15k of that 18k went to Killeen alone as the Black population is now a plurality in 2023. No way I would thought that could happen 30 years ago. Killeen is one of a small few where the black population is a plurality in Texas.
I also agree with you about Texas and stated a similar fact years ago. People don’t realize how Black that state really is.
I think a lot of this is because of thinking of the eastern portion of the state, where much of the black population is concentrated. So, people might not think about the other cities/towns in Central/West Texas that have quite a few black residents themselves.
It could also be that the Hispanic population is second within the state. So, some may view the state through the stereotypical lens and the Hispanic narrative.
Texas’ growth is incredible and I doubt it will slow down.
Generally AAs are moving to the south for COL and jobs, in that order. Most of the people moving are college educated and/or have families. Certain areas, such as Baltimore, St Louis, Birmingham, are affordable but have other deeply entrenched issues like crime, poor schools etc.
Your fourth point re: AA and foreign born growth being unrelated is incorrect in places like Atlanta, Houston and Dallas. All three have also seen large increases in the Caribbean and African populations.
I know some AA people that moved to Atlanta from Columbus, Ohio, and Chicago suburbs. They moved moreso for QOL than COL. Some of the Atlanta burbs are more expensive than the burbs in Columbus and Chicago now.
This is why I think the shift is somewhat overstated, as many are realizing just moving to the suburbs in many regions outside of the South may actually be more affordable and as the OP stated, it is really only a handful of areas in the South that are really seeing growth. Let alone that some in major areas in other regions just move to mid and smaller metros in their regions.
Your fourth point re: AA and foreign born growth being unrelated is incorrect in places like Atlanta, Houston and Dallas. All three have also seen large increases in the Caribbean and African populations.
But NYC and Miami are huge foreign born black magnets. Yet, African Americans are leaving. That is what I mean. Not that Houston, DFW, and Atlanta aren't attracting both.
The one big difference between black migration and white migration to the Southeast is you don't really see black migration into the tourist/retiree* dominated areas, even when relatively affordable. There's not really a single built up black-majority area along the beach south of Newport News, VA. Most of the historically black Sea Islands other than St. Helena near Beaufort have been gentrified and become overwhelmingly white as they develop.
To me that shows that unlike white transplants, it's not solely about COL, it's about jobs. Indeed, I'm not convinced there's a significant cost differential at all between moving from a black area of a Rust belt city to the black suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas, or Houston.
* I recognize a lot of black people do retire to the Southeast, particularly those with family ties to the region, but they tend to move "back home" - not to typical retiree havens.
As Above man I need a favor. Would you mind throwing up the fastest growing cities for White Americans. I’m actually trying to compare how different America looks for White and Black Americans.
Location: The Greatest city on Earth: City of Atlanta Proper
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Originally Posted by eschaton
The one big difference between black migration and white migration to the Southeast is you don't really see black migration into the tourist/retiree* dominated areas, even when relatively affordable. There's not really a single built up black-majority area along the beach south of Newport News, VA. Most of the historically black Sea Islands other than St. Helena near Beaufort have been gentrified and become overwhelmingly white as they develop.
To me that shows that unlike white transplants, it's not solely about COL, it's about jobs. Indeed, I'm not convinced there's a significant cost differential at all between moving from a black area of a Rust belt city to the black suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas, or Houston.
* I recognize a lot of black people do retire to the Southeast, particularly those with family ties to the region, but they tend to move "back home" - not to typical retiree havens.
Oh it's 100% about jobs or education with the cost of living being the cherry on top. I can't tell you how many people I know from the Northeast, Midwest, or West coast that came to the South to attend an HBCU and never left (and by "never left" I mean move to Atlanta when they graduated, naturally) or came as part of a job relocation and ended up realizing that they were just throwing their money away in their old city.
You are also correct in that there isn't a significantly large amount of Black folks (or any POC) of retirement age filling up all of those retiree subdivisions that make up most of Florida these days. They seem to be almost entirely made up of middle to upper middle class white folks from all over, but mainly the Northeast.
This is also everything you need to understand about the current state of politics in Florida. Most of these retirees are also extremely conservative and left their States of origin because they do not agree with the political direction and they have zero reason to stay now that they are no longer working. So they tread on down to the hard right/libertarian utopia that is Florida and enable that walking brain injury DeSantis to push any wackydoodle law he can dream up.
Meanwhile, the New Great Migration is being driven by working aged people and skews extremely young. That's why places like Georgia (who have seen way more of this type of migration than retirees) are starting to trend "Blue" slowly but surely. We're getting people without Boomer hang ups, and even if we do get those people they are in the vast majority.
While off topic, this is a great point to talk about the future trajectory of Florida and how they are actively screwing themselves. But that's a thread for a different day. More relevant to this thread is that POC tend to lean on family in retirement or move back home, not to Atlanta or any of the other Southern cities growing rapidly unless that's their home.
Last edited by waronxmas; 05-09-2023 at 03:13 PM..
As Above man I need a favor. Would you mind throwing up the fastest growing cities for White Americans. I’m actually trying to compare how different America looks for White and Black Americans.
So this was from 2010-2020. I can pull up 2011-2021 but its gonna take time since I'd have to do it manually:
Non-Hispanic White Growth 2010-2020 by MSA
Austin: 194,639
Nashville: 183,293
Denver: 140,504
Phoenix: 137,036
Indianapolis: 128,939
Raleigh: 106,886
Columbus: 84,569
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 70,130
Jacksonville: 68,415
San Antonio: 64,957
Dallas/Fort Worth: 64,697
Portland, OR: 38,457
Houston: 29,317
Orlando: 25,417
Salt Lake City: 17,042
Tampa: 9,252
Oklahoma City: 614
Washington DC: -7,939
Atlanta: -9,922
Seattle/Tacoma: -11,456
Kansas City: -13,613
Virginia Beach: -13,933
New Orleans: -14,062
Providence: -22,491
Richmond: -27,494
Sacramento: -40,595
Las Vegas: -43,147
Memphis: 55,656
Milwaukee: -63,402
Birmingham: -70,646
San Jose: -72,570
San Diego: -77,842
Cleveland: -82,131
Hartford: -92,936
Louisville: -93,340
Pittsburgh: -103,293
Boston: -116,304
Detroit: -116,611
San Francisco: -122,317
Baltimore: -127,044
St. Louis: -129,633
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: -152,433
Philadelphia: -180,305
Riverside/San Bernardino: -192,318
Los Angeles: -294,556
Chicago: -379,489
New York City: -521,636
Oh it's 100% about jobs or education with the cost of living being the cherry on top. I can't tell you how many people I know from the Northeast, Midwest, or West coast that came to the south to attend a HBCU and never left (and by "never left" I mean move to Atlanta when they graduate, naturally) or came as part of a job relocation and ended up realizing that they were just throwing their money away in their old city.
You are also correct in that there isn't a significantly large amount of Black folks (or any POC) of retirement age filling up all of those retiree subdivisions that make up most of Florida these days. They seem to be almost entirely made up of middle to upper middle class white folks from all over.
This is also everything you need to understand about the current state of politics in Florida. Most of these retirees are also extremely conservative and left their States of origin because they do not agree with the political direction and they have zero reason to stay now that they are no longer working. So they tread on down to the hard right/libertarian utopia that is Florida and enable that walking brain injury DeSantis to push any wackydoodle law he can dream up.
Meanwhile, the New Great Migration is being driven by working aged people and skews extremely young. That's why places like Georgia (who have seen way more of this type of migration than retirees) are starting to trend "Blue" slowly but surely. We're getting people without Boomer hang ups, and even if we do get those people they are in the vast majority.
While off topic, this is a great point to talk about the future trajectory of Florida and how they are actively screwing themselves. But that's a thread for a different day. More relevant to this thread is that POC tend to lean on family in retirement or move back home, not to Atlanta or any of the other Southern cities growing rapidly unless that's their home.
Just curious, but with the percentage declining in Atlanta and development expanding, do you think that said migration to the metro area will taper off or stay the same?
I think that the NYC los of Black Americans is interesting in that yes, a lot of older people and retirees that I know of are indeed returning to hometowns or family in the south -- often small towns or smaller cities like Newport News, Winston-Salem, Tallahassee, and the like.
But there is another dynamic too. Many younger, college-educated professionals are moving to New York for career advancement and THEN leaving the city after a time, sometimes just to the 'burbs, sometimes to take positions in other cities in the Southeast or Texas. So what that means is that while the overall African-American population is shrinking it his also constantly being reinvigorated by ambitious Black people in a way that I'm not sure happens elsewhere.
Perhaps that's true in Washington DC, Boston, San Jose too -- those are the cities that I think where this cycle may also happen. The combination of high COL and A-list job opportunities in high-paying fields is pretty rare IMO. When it happens you'll see a lot of Black Americans living in such a city for a while, bringing new blood to civic and business life, reaping the benefits for themselves, and then moving on. But for wholly different reasons than older residents, retirees, and younger families in search of cheap housing and safer streets.
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