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It may seem like a contradiction, but perhaps not. While "creative class" isn't always consistently defined, I have read reports that show (at least in the case of NJ, and possibly other states with similar migration patterns), that while the middle and lower-income domestic migration is negative, it is positive for higher-income, highly-educated households. More wealthier and higher educated people move in than move out. The report cited below calls this a "Brain Gain."
If anyone noticed on the IRS spreadsheets, the fourth line (under Aggregate Adjusted Gross Income) deals with the value of the tax returns from domestic migrants. What was apparent to me is that in almost EVERY state, people migrating from the Northeast and Illinois always brought in much more money disproportionate to their size of the population.
For example, in California, here are the gross incomes of people from the top 5 inflow states:
Even though New York is only the fifth state sending the most people to California, they are first in the amount of money they add to the California economy.
However, the same relationship is true for Californians moving out of state, especially to other Western states. Generally speaking, Californians moving to states closer to CA generally have lower incomes than those moving further and further away. Hence, Arizona and Nevada being lower middle class refuges for California; Texas being middle class refuge; New York and the Northeast being generally for the richer class of Californian.
Top 6 outflow states (adding in New York to get the point across)
1. Texas: 1,586,555
2. Arizona: 1,052,551
3. Nevada: 952, 551
4. Washington: 1,036,838
5. Oregon: 765,655
6. New York: 795,555
Notice the amount of money leaving CA to NY is more than the amount of money leaving CA going to Oregon, even though 11,234 more Californians were moving to Oregon than NY (that's quite a big jump, considering with the amount of people we're dealing with). Texas only gets 31% more Californians than Arizona, but gets a little more than 34% of money from California. What's even more amazing is the disparity between migrants going to Nevada (presumably: Las Vegas and Reno) and those going to Washington State.
Of course, I am speaking in generalities, but the data supports my claim. If someone could figure out the average income for the migrants as well, I'd greatly appreciate it
Last edited by Lifeshadower; 01-14-2010 at 09:39 AM..
Top 5 outflows:
1. Florida
2. Illinois
3. California
4. Texas
5. Ohio
Wayne County (Detroit, some suburbs)
Top 10 out of state inflow counties:
1. Cook County, IL
2. Lucas County, OH
3. Maricopa County, AZ
4. Los Angeles County, CA
5. Clark County, NV
6. Cuyahoga County, OH
7. Foreign
8. San Diego County, CA
9. Franklin County, OH
10. Broward County, FL
Top 10 out of state outflow counties:
1. Maricopa County, AZ
2. Cook County, IL
3. Clark County, NV
4. Los Angeles County, CA
5. Harris County, TX
6. Fulton County, GA
7. Lucas County, OH
8. Franklin County, OH
9. Mecklenburg County, NC
10. Dupage County, IL
Oakland County (Detroit suburbs)
Top 10 out of state inflow counties:
1. Cook County, IL
2. Los Angeles County, CA
3. Maricopa County, AZ
4. Cuyahoga County, OH
5. San Diego County, CA
6. Franklin County, OH
7. Clark County, NV
8. New York County, NY
9. Orange County, CA
10. Lucas County, OH
Top 10 out of state outflow counties:
1. Cook County, IL
2. Maricopa County, AZ
3. Los Angeles County, CA
4. Clark County, NV
5. New York County, NY
6. Harris County, TX
7. San Diego County, CA
8. King County, WA
9. Orange County, CA
10. Mecklenburg County, NC
So outside of a huge focus on Chicago and a few close areas like Toledo, it looks like Detroit area residents are moving to similar places as everybody else.
I think it would be interesting to see where people come from/go to by US Census defined regions (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West) (source: http://www.census.gov/geo/www/us_regdiv.pdf)
West CA, NV, AZ, NM, CO, UT, WY, MT, ID, WA, OR, AK, HI
South: TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV, MD, DE, DC, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL
Northeast: PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME
Midwest: ND, SD, NE, KS, MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH
I'll do California:
Domestic Inflow into California by Region (2007-2008)
Total: 612,950 (returns + exemptions)
West: 215,816 (35.2% of California's inflow)
South: 194,021 (31.7% of California's inflow)
Midwest: 109,332 (17.8% of California's inflow)
Northeast: 93,781 (15.3% of California's inflow)
Domestic Outflow out of California by Region (2007-2008)
Total: 759,776 (returns + exemptions)
West: 328,361 (43.2% of California's outflow)
South: 259,657 (34.1% of California's outflow)
Midwest: 96,569 (12.7% of California's outflow)
Northeast: 75,189 (9.8% of California's outflow)
Unsurprisingly, most out of state migrants into California come from the West or the South, with huge minorities coming from the Midwest and Northeast. However, for the most part, almost half of all Californians who leave the state of California leave to other Western states, with a little more than a third going to the South. Only a little more than 1/5 of all Californians go to the Midwest and Northeast whenever they leave out of state.
Before someone asks, I think it will also be interesting to do Texas, considering how much migration they have been getting as of late.
Domestic Inflow into Texas by Region (2007-2008)
Total: 684,732 (returns + exemptions)
South: 261,629 (38.2% of Texas' inflow)
West: 218,237 (31.8% of Texas' inflow)
Midwest: 143,014 (20.9% of Texas' inflow)
Northeast: 61,852 (9.1% of Texas' inflow)
Domestic Outflow out of Texas by region (2007-2008)
Total: 506,203 (returns + exemptions)
South: 213,517 (42.2% of Texas' outflow)
West: 160,921 (31.7% of Texas' outflow)
Midwest: 92,421 (18.3% of Texas' outflow)
Northeast: 39,344 (7.7% of Texas' outflow)
It's the reverse of California, except Texas has the nearly the same percentage of West migrants in and out of Texas, while having a huger chunk of their outmigrants going to the rest of the South. Again, a smaller number go to the Midwest and the Northeast.
1. New Jersey
2. New York
3. Maryland
4. Florida
5. [Foreign]
6. Virginia
7. Ohio
8. California
9. North Carolina
10. Delaware
Top 10 outflow states
1. New York
2. New Jersey
3. Florida
4. Maryland
5. Virginia
6. North Carolina
7. California
8. Ohio
9. Texas
10. Delaware
ALLEGHENY COUNTY, PA
Top 10 inflow counties, local
1. Westmoreland County, PA
2. Washington County, PA
3. Butler County, PA
4. Beaver County, PA
5. Erie County, PA
6. Armstrong County, PA
7. Fayette County, PA
8. Cambria County, PA
9. Indiana County, PA
10. Mercer County, PA
Top 10 outflow counties, local
1. Westmoreland County, PA
2. Washington County, PA
3. Butler County, PA
4. Beaver County, PA
5. Armstrong County, PA
6. Erie County, PA
7. Fayette County, PA
8. Mercer County, PA
9. Lawrence County, PA
10. Crawford County, PA
Top 10 inflow counties, national
1. Philadelphia County, PA
2. Cook County, IL
3. Cuyahoga County, OH
4. Franklin County, OH
5. Los Angeles County, CA
6. Fairfax County, VA
7. Maricopa County, AZ
8. Montgomery County, PA
9. New York County, NY
10. Montgomery County, MD
Top 10 outflow counties, national
1. New York County, NY
2. Philadelphia County, PA
3. Cook County, IL
4. Los Angeles County, CA
5. Maricopa County, AZ
6. Franklin County, OH
7. Mecklenburg County, NC
8. Cuyahoga County, OH
9. Fairfax County, VA
10. District of Columbia, DC
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