Forecast on summer/fire danger? (Denver, Black Forest: house, costs, dangerous)

[DoodlemomCoS]

Does anyone know what is being predicted for the summer this year and for fire danger? Last June (2016) seemed to be a lot wetter, although we did have some nice late May snow this year.

[otowi]

I think it is too early to tell. It will depend on if the monsoon system sets up or not. A few weeks one way or another means nothing here as for the long or mid term prognosis. Some people have had significant rain the last few weeks and some have had none. One should simply always consider fire a real danger here.

[Educator1982]

We are suppose to start getting rain early next week! Let's keep our fingers crossed! It is forecast to be near average the rest of the season from the learn term discussion forecast office from Denver.

[Dangerous Dave]

I work for the Forest Service and I fire training behind me (Red Card). I'm not claiming to be an expert, by any means, but what I can say is take all of the predictions about fire season in any given year and throw them in the trash. We've actually had a very wet spring and our winter produced nearly 10' of snow this year. Most would say our chance of fires this year hovers around zero percent. If it dries up and we have 2-3 weeks of 80's and 90's with lots of sun, all that stuff that has or will grow is going up in flames. On the flip side, we've had warm, dry winters with little snow and all the experts were telling us to get ready for an active fire season, then all it did was rain all summer.


It's a mixed bag. Nobody can predict it.

[beezle1]

There was a house fire about 1/8 mile from my house a few nights ago, in a heavily treed development that is on well water (no hydrants). Sadly, the house was lost. I have no idea how they kept it from spreading to the trees as the home was surrounded by trees. Pretty amazing that the fire department was able to control it. I guess maybe it helped that there was no wind that night.

[Phil P]

I wouldn't say BF has a high fire chance now due to the prior spring rains. BF needs 1 - 2 months of hot, dry weather for it to climb up in risk. That would mean little to no rain for the next month or only a few storms between now and the end of August for things to start to get dicey again.

[Phil P]

Originally Posted by Dangerous Dave

I work for the Forest Service and I fire training behind me (Red Card). I'm not claiming to be an expert, by any means, but what I can say is take all of the predictions about fire season in any given year and throw them in the trash. We've actually had a very wet spring and our winter produced nearly 10' of snow this year. Most would say our chance of fires this year hovers around zero percent. If it dries up and we have 2-3 weeks of 80's and 90's with lots of sun, all that stuff that has or will grow is going up in flames. On the flip side, we've had warm, dry winters with little snow and all the experts were telling us to get ready for an active fire season, then all it did was rain all summer.


It's a mixed bag. Nobody can predict it.

Well, here we are at 3-4 weeks of little to no rain and hot, dry weather, with more in the forecast. IMO, the risk has moved quite a bit higher now than it was at the beginning of this thread. The "good" thing about Black Forest now is that the middle has burned out already, meaning there's not much room for another fire to spread across the entirety of it. It's kind of a doughnut shape, making it much easier to contain.

The mountains are a different story. Who knows what will happen, but it's pretty dry up in certain parts of them. The snow cover helped, but for many areas outside of the wetter spots, that advantage has evaporated.

[otowi]

The Monsoons haven't set up yet - maybe in a few weeks. Right now the rain is sporadic and hit or miss. Everything up Ute Pass got a good soaker today.

[Phil P]

Originally Posted by otowi

The Monsoons haven't set up yet - maybe in a few weeks. Right now the rain is sporadic and hit or miss. Everything up Ute Pass got a good soaker today.

That's how it was when the BF and waldo canyon fire hit. 1 or 2 weeks later, the rains came hard. It's just that the ****** of an arsonist happened to light them before the rains could come to rescue.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Phil P

.... It's just that the ****** of an arsonist happened to light them before the rains could come to rescue.

The latest story I heard of the investigations of how the BF fire got started is this: There was a home near the start point of the fire that was being rehabbed by flippers. To save money on dumpster costs they were burning a lot of junk in the home's fireplace, which they overloaded with combustibles that gave off a shower of sparks which ignited the fire. That's the story as I know it to-date.

Early on after the fire there was word from then-Sheriff Maketa that they were focusing on a suspect but I never heard any word after that.

It was a very hot, dry and windy day which made that fire one big blow torch.