[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

The newest track has the center shifted west again…now near 37.5 N/71.5 W….about due east of Ocean City, Maryland about 250-miles off shore. I thought in the last advisory/discussion they seemed to be losing faith in the trough. 71.5 is the longitude of New London, CT. 24 hours from now will really be interesting; if they still have it west of 70 W…then it will really be a close call from VA Beach to Cape Cod.

Keep in mind Atlantic Ocean sst are at their peak right now 24 to 27 C from Long Island south to VA Beach. It is most import what sst are just off NJ...becasue this is where Earl will spend the final hours before landfall. The 11:00 PM advisory tonight should really show their thinking. I guess will have to wait and see.

.

Ok chicken littles..you've had your fun.

Oh and if this storm did by some crazy fluke make a direct landfall on Long Island its gonna get torn to shreds by sheer north of Virginia..it would hold a cat 1 at BEST. Now that won't happen as the eye will never make it to land in N.E.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

ITS NOW A CAT 3 FOLKS.. with an eye... 120MPH Winds with Pressure at 960! Still a WNW movement...No North jog yet...

...Dont rule it out because its far away still..It's only 4 days away from us... Its a monster already and waters are still warm up until North Carolina. Even off the coast of Jersey waters are 1-2 degrees warmer than usual. We had a very Hot long summer and gave the waters a chance to warm up.

NOTE::: Massive Dry Air moving South towards Earl...that will keep Earl "west" of the forecasted track...Meaning a hit to us.

I think we're likely to see "something"; this site: Hurricane EARL has up the chances for trop storm force winds in CT and LI to about 30-40%, just yesterday it was only about 10%. even the shot at hurricane force winds:
Hurricane EARL

is now at 5-10% for LI and southeastern CT. I'm thinking something like Floyd where the winds are trop storm force (but almost Cat 1) but 10-15" of rain.......I think the CT state rainfall record is 15" in Danbury during that one.

Originally Posted by jp03

Ok chicken littles..you've had your fun.

Oh and if this storm did by some crazy fluke make a direct landfall on Long Island its gonna get torn to shreds by sheer north of Virginia..it would hold a cat 1 at BEST. Now that won't happen as the eye will never make it to land in N.E.

Normally true (again, this happened with Floyd for example.....another weaker example is Bertha in 1996 which actually "landfalled" as a TS over NYC and southwest CT), but the waters south of Cape Cod (and especially in NJ) are virtually the warmest they've ever been (at least since they recorded weather 150 years ago), so it could be a little stronger this time.......1938 was a Cat 3 landfall in LI and there were ones in 1635 and 1821 (obviously estimated Cat based on damage and written observations).

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by JViello

Jay, I'm a little confused and not just giving you a hard time. How many "1" threads are allowed per X. What if another hurricane that's more threatening etc comes along next week. Will we have another "I know there is a weather thread but this is special" deal?

I just don't understand why we are taking up a space for a sticky thread and not using it.

Right now we are taling about Earl which should pass by in the next few days. It is a real threat to Connecticut so I consider it important enough to allow a new thread. If next week another hurricane is heading our way (and I do listen to the weathermen to be certain of this) I will allow another thread to be started but I will close the Earl thread.

I know there are some people here who don't like having a sticky thread on weather and another thread on a special event but I have received equally as many people saying they want a separate thread and don't mind having multiple threads on weather. The forum rules do not address this issue and senior moderators have left it to the Moderator's discreation. I think there is nothing wrong with having one thread going on a particular storm. I will not allow more than one though. JayCT, Moderator

[JViello]

Good, we can use the rain...

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think we're likely to see "something"; this site: Hurricane EARL has up the chances for trop storm force winds in CT and LI to about 30-40%, just yesterday it was only about 10%. even the shot at hurricane force winds:
Hurricane EARL

is now at 5-10% for LI and southeastern CT. I'm thinking something like Floyd where the winds are trop storm force (but almost Cat 1) but 10-15" of rain.......I think the CT state rainfall record is 15" in Danbury during that one.



Normally true (again, this happened with Floyd for example.....another weaker example is Bertha in 1996 which actually "landfalled" as a TS over NYC and southwest CT), but the waters south of Cape Cod (and especially in NJ) are virtually the warmest they've ever been (at least since they recorded weather 150 years ago), so it could be a little stronger this time.......1938 was a Cat 3 landfall in LI and there were ones in 1635 and 1821 (obviously estimated Cat based on damage and written observations).

Its not the waters warmth..its the unfavorable shear. No matter ...this storm wont get close enough to L.I. anyway to bring more than a few wind gusts and light rain..

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

Ok chicken littles..you've had your fun.

Oh and if this storm did by some crazy fluke make a direct landfall on Long Island its gonna get torn to shreds by sheer north of Virginia..it would hold a cat 1 at BEST. Now that won't happen as the eye will never make it to land in N.E.

I understand that not everyone understands climate/meteorology the way others do…but that is a lame comment.

Tropical cyclones hit the Middle /North Atlantic states in 1815, 1821, 1857, 1869, 1893, 1903, 1924, 1938, 1944, 1954(2 twice), 1960, 1976, 1985, 1991.

Do you think it is impossible for a tropical cyclone to strike the North Atlantic states?

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I understand that not everyone understands climate/meteorology the way others do…but that is a lame comment.

Tropical cyclones hit the Middle /North Atlantic states in 1815, 1821, 1857, 1869, 1893, 1903, 1924, 1938, 1944, 1954(2 twice), 1960, 1976, 1985, 1991.

Do you think it is impossible for a tropical cyclone to strike the North Atlantic states?

Who said that? ??? Are you serious? You think you have a monopoly on meteorology knowledge? No **** storms can hit the New England coast.....I only said this one won''t! Wow...

If you had any knowledge at all, you would know not to jump the gun on a forecast like this . You ARE HOPING for, not forecasting this storm to hit the east coast. NO models bring this on the coast worth a grain of salt...NONE. But yet I because I am the voice of reason am the dolt here. You hoping that something will happen WILL not make it happen.

[Cambium]

SHHHHH!!!! Dont ruin this thread...It will be nice to look back at the history of the Storm not the bickering! Come on. No more he said she said crap.

[Cambium]

M = MAJOR. CAT3 OR ABOVE. According to current NHC projections it Looks like Friday after 11am is the day for us in CT..

I'm still saying Tropical Storm force winds here and rain. The strongest part of the hurricane is the East side of the eye wall..It doesn't look like we'll be on the east side of eye wall so thats good.

[JViello]

Originally Posted by Cambium

SHHHHH!!!! Dont ruin this thread...It will be nice to look back at the history of the Storm not the bickering! Come on. No more he said she said crap.

We are not talking about an event like the 2012 presidential debate being held in Hartford or something here. I'm staring to think JP03 is correct in his ascertaining of the hoping and wishing for a catastrophic storm.