[KEVIN_224]

It got to 70 in Leominster, MA? I think that's the city it's for?

[Poseidon3290]

I just saw 71 degrees for white plains NY for tomorrow. I personally am disgusted with this. I guess the world really is changing. If we are going to not get snow in the North East I am outta here for winter. It's part of the only reason to live here!

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by JMagliola

I just saw 71 degrees for white plains NY for tomorrow. I personally am disgusted with this. I guess the world really is changing. If we are going to not get snow in the North East I am outta here for winter. It's part of the only reason to live here!

While it can be debated whether such weather is happening more often (I think it is and there's something to it, but not to the extent it's made out, like maybe with the same conditions 100 years ago it would still be very warm but 2 or 3 degrees cooler or something), this is far from unprecedented. NYC just missed a daily record that occurred in both 1939 and 1930. And another forum I'm in (not C-D) noted this about today's date in our region in 1943:

Just five days after a morning low of 8° below zero (NYC's third coldest temperature) today's high reached 63° - the greatest rebound in temperature following a sub-zero reading. This was the first of five consecutive days with highs in the 60s.

I also read somewhere about not too far away but usually warmer than here Washington, DC possibly having a low in the 60s for today (they didn't, low is 58). The only times such a thing ever happened there in February was in 1874 and 1891 of all things.

[Cambium]

I recommend playing the upper level loop on a daily basis. You'll get a better sense how patterns evolve around the globe or just North America if you wish, and you'll come to a more educated reasoning on your own.

If people are fixated and worried about the wild swings then realize that in the past the flow was slower and less amplified with possible blocking to keep things in place longer. By having that blocking or less amped pattern the swings weren't as short in time. This doesnt mean it didnt happen though.

It starts with the upper levels. THAT controls our weather pattern. (Top Down), not the surface. But..the surface will add a couple degrees with the extra blacktop, jumbo jets, ect, and those few degrees can make a swing look more extreme.

But again, start playing the upper level loops. (500mb). Use the slider at the top. Its fasinating. Note how far South the Jet stream is in the West.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...018022106&fh=6

[ads94]

What a wonderful day it has been so far. Left the window wide open all night for comfortable relaxing air, had the window down on the freeway into work. Office window open now. Damn the rain and fog, this is great.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

This is something that if you look at the record has gone back and forth through the years. It has always been the case that around here (more so along the coast than inland) we get both snow and rain during February and the winter in general. We are certainly below 32 enough that there has not been a year where it didn't snow and stick at least once, but most years we have some rain too.

If anything, in the last 25-40 years or so we have usually had MORE snow, not less than in the past. One theory is that in a warming climate, you generally get more precip, but that it hasn't warmed enough for more of that to be rain, another related one says it changes the patterns so if we do get precip the pattern favors a colder, snowier one. Who really knows? (see below)

This time around, I'm not saying this to debate what Cambium calls "you know what", if anything just to point out that generally it has actually been snowier, not rainier, in recent times and that climate and weather patterns are a much more complex subject in general than the media and for that matter either side of the debate makes of it, which is what makes the actual debate so much more complicated than it may seem.

The variations, at least since the 1920's, have been more or less trendless. What has happened is a bigger city/rural spread, presumably because of UHI.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by ads94

Yeah the snow just... vanished overnight basically. Still had a good amount left in the evening, woke up to practically none.

Fog is a big snow-eater.

[Cambium]

10:25am temps. Clouds trying to disappear. Once sun comes out, off we go.

64° BDL. 50 BDR

[clutchrider]

The ice block on my pool cover finally melted, I can drain the cover tonight! It definitely feels like fog destroys snow and ice faster than sun.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

The variations, at least since the 1920's, have been more or less trendless. What has happened is a bigger city/rural spread, presumably because of UHI.

With the high temperatures, yes (trendless that is), with the low temperatures, they are clearly warmer now in a statistically significant way. Some of that is clearly because of greater UHI, but it's true to a less but again statistically significant extent in rural areas as well. My belief is that global warming as the science puts it mostly manifests itself in the nighttime lows, which would make sense since the way greenhouse gases act is to keep heat from escaping into space, similar (though not in the same way) to how UHI works.

I think it is a little bit of both, more UHI than most make it, but not simply just that. But Cambium did have an interesting theory about the jet stream bending more than it used to that I didn't think of. I have heard it before and supposedly greenhouse gases cause that (greater jet stream bends and thus greater variations), but I don't know if we know enough about that aspect to prove or disprove the cause at this time.