[wavehunter007]

Oh it be.

And one other synoptic note (for all you warm weather fans)…

Today will feature very nice weather and balmy temps in the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic region; A strengthening south-southwest flow will really start surging in by midday. By noon – New Haven, Stamford, NYC, Trenton, Middletown, Hartford,...etc will pushing 50 to 55 F, while areas from central New Jersey might top 60 F under that increasing “solar angle”.

So get outside today, stand in the strong southerly breeze…and think of it as a little preview to the warm winds the old Bermuda High is spooling up for the long warm season ahead...enjoy!

[Cambium]

We better hope it doesnt stay all snow using the New NAM model out. Gives over an inch liquid.

Here's how the snow totals look. Notice the southern 4 counties, sleet & mix will hold down accumulations but northern portion nearing a foot.

Assume spots like Danbury, Redding, or anyone over 1000 feet will stay mostly snow.

So while the map has 3-4" for Danbury it doesnt locate certain spots of higher elevation there so figure 5-7" USING THIS MODEL that just came out..

[wavehunter007]

Here are current temps... we should add 10 F to these figures today with the sun and no clouds.

[Cambium]

GFS flips the coin...Shows the other side of things.

Latest GFS12z warm. All rain in PA, NJ and NYC. Starts as snow in CT, NY, MA but quickly changes to Rain and stays rain.

Only stays snow Vermont, NH, Maine with flaky backend snows in PA/NY/MA/CT .

Here we go again... Hours away and models cant be consistant. Unreal. Euro is absolutely amazing how consistant it has been for this. NAM as well. and CMC.

[Cambium]

I think this makes more sense to me. Great job on their end. Except for the 1-3 in NYC south. Maybe 1" before rain.
Things can still change.

[Cambium]

Georgous Spring day today. Temps 10 degrees above normal which is the norm for this winter.

[Cambium]

Surprise.......And the Euro has turned to rain. Not only that but shows practically little precip.(.50")

Its light Snow to light Rain to light Snow north of 84. Albany NY stays all snow and more of it (12-15")

2 more runs of Euro before Wednesday
5 more runs of GFS
6 more of NAM

Million Dollar Question......
Will the GFS be correct this whole time (Warm and Rain) or Euro (Cold and snow)(before last update)

One of them wil be right. or will it be a compromise??? We'll see.

[GraniteStater]

I like the accumulation maps. It's looking good for decent snows in Merrimack county, NH. Finally a decent storm!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

I like the accumulation maps. It's looking good for decent snows in Merrimack county, NH. Finally a decent storm!

Definetly a significant storm up there finally..

I'm posting entire discussion from KBOX for future reference.
Remember NWS Boston serves Hartford, Windham and Tolland Counties and 2 southern NH counties.

In short they are saying:
GFS is an outlier (meaning garbage, throw it out, wrong, oddball)
Draw a line from the Hilly terrain of Litchfield, through Hartford, into south shore of Boston and accumulating snow is likely.
North of I-90 in MA is a significant snowstorm maybe 10-14" in spots.
Advisories and even Snowstorm Warnings are possible.

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOWSTORM LOOKING LIKELY LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT FOR PARTS OF AREA...

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST... RANGING FROM 1033 MB ON MOST MODELS TO AS STRONG AS 1040 MB ON THE CANADIAN (CMC) MODEL. THIS WILL NOT ONLY HELP COLD AIR FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BUT IT WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AN INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE FORMING TO OUR SOUTH ON WED AND WED EVENING. THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE COLDER THAN THE GFS AND NAM AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME
IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN TERMS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL LOW STRUCTURE. PREVIOUSLY THE UPPER LOW WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH. NOW BOTH MODELS HAVE IT WEAKENING BUT MOVING STRAIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAKES FOR A SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SITUATION.

AM EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE DURING WED AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT BELOW FREEZING IT SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR IT TO TURN TO ALL SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TOWARD EVENING.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL WED EVENING BEFORE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTH. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WILL BE THE MORE POTENT ONE. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN EARNEST IN THE WEE HOURS OF THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VARYING INTENSITY IN THOSE AREAS. A MIX OF RAIN SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN CT/RI/SE MA...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY EVENING EXCEPT EXTREME S COASTAL MA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY...TO 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER BECAUSE IT IS MORE INTENSE AND FARTHEST NORTH AND HAS 50+ KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 850 MB THAT RUSH WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUCH THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 50. WHILE THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...WE ARE BELIEVING THAT THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE MORE OF THE WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME. THAT WOULD LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM 35 TO 40 OVER SE MA INCLUDING CAPE COD THU.
FOR THE GRIDS...USED A 70 PERCENT ECMWF-30 PERCENT GFS COMBINATION FOR THICKNESSES. THIS BEST YIELDED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE WERE EXPECTING IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECTING THE 1540 LINE IN THE 850-700 MB THICKNESS TO PENETRATE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA AND NORTHERN RI FOR A TIME WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE SOUTH.

REMARKABLY...THE SNOWFALL ALGORITHMS FROM THE CMC...NAM...GFS... AND ECMWF WERE ALL EXTRAORDINARILY SIMILAR. WHILE ONE CANNOT TAKE THE MAGNITUDES VERBATIM...THE TREND SHOWED A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT WITH MAXIMUM SNOWFALLS OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN IN NW AND N CENTRAL MA AND SW NH AND MUCH LESS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE HARTFORD AREA EAST TO PLYMOUTH MA AND NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF BOSTON. AGAIN...STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL. BUT THIS IS THE TYPE OF STORM THAT COULD PROMPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERNMOST PORTIONS. STAY TUNED.

[7 Wishes]

Here's the Weather Channel's take on it, which basically sounds like the BOX report:

"The storm arrives midweek with locally heavy rain overspreading the Mid-Atlantic and southeast New York and snow or wintry mix invading Upstate New York and much of New England."