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Ukrainians also like to tell themselves stories that they learn to believe. The latest story that I have heard was that Ukrainians are better then Russians since Ukrainians are European. Europeans are saying it's Eastern Europe, not really Europe, just barbarians.
If have questions about Ukraine/Russia, I can try to answer.
And that is f*cking scary. I understand we have to uphold our NATO obligations, but the fact that nuclear war with Russia over Estonia is possible is just plain scary. If we could go back in time, I would say the best thing to do is not allow any former Soviet states into NATO.......
Not scary at all. There is no requirement for a NATO country to militarily assist another NATO country, all the collective defense does is lay a legal foundation for one or more member countries to militarily assist another country in the collective defense organization, NATO in this case. It does not mean it is mandatory for a country to do so, and member countries can offer a range of ways to assist up to and including a full military intervention.
Russia in fact has invaded Ukraine
With tanks and troops now the comes the difficult part
Admitting the treaty is broken and doing something about it
Waiting for that evidence to come; you would think with Kiev reporting 20,000 troops and hundreds of tanks and heavy weapons, there would be plenty of evidence of this. Instead, we have Petro holding up some passports, and a picture of one tank driving around, oh yes, a dozen Russian airborne troops caught right across an unmarked border. Nevermind the Ukrainian troops captured on Russian territory that crossed into it fleeing the rebels. Some invasion, Ukrainian troops fleeing to Russia to escape the rebels. Also, the nearly ten million Ukrainians who have went to Russia since the start of the conflict.
- Ukraine had a non-stop parade of extremely corrupt governments ever since the breakup of USSR
- nevertheless, they also had more or less free (i.e. widely influenced by voter fraud and outside parties' meddling, but still unpredictable) elections. While some of their leaders tried to act as if they owned the country, nobody really did and the Ukrainians were actually coming to the polls and voting (even though their convictions were ever changing and sometimes easily bought)
- The public and the presidents were constantly oscillating between Russia and the West, looking for a magic formula for prosperity.
- the last Putin-aligned President was a former criminal with convictions for robbery, violent assault and (allegedly) rape, later turned "apparatshek". He was extremely corrupt even by Ukrainian standards, using police and state security forces for blatant racket (kidnappings of businessmen, coerced "sales" of businesses, murders etc.)
- this created a ripe situation for public discontent, that culminated in demonstrations that were very likely at least in part sponsored by the outside forces (US and EU, mainly Germany) and counter-demonstrations sponsored by Russia
- in the end the President Y (spelling ?) was forced to flee the country and was replaced by Western leaning bunch of lesser crooks... eh, politicians.
- Mr Putin got extremely pissed off (even though it was his screw up as he chose his guy poorly) and kicked the game up several notches, breaking the years-long unspoken gentlemen's agreement by which all the outside parties stirred the ***** up but stayed outside, and started a localized but high-intensity separatist war in the East, with (most likely) participation of the regular Russian troops and equipment, and openly annexing Crimea in the South. (There were also reports of large fracking opportunities in the East of Ukraine that may have helped him to make up his mind, but I don't know if they are true).
- Incidentally, it helped his ratings at home tremendously, just in time for the crazy runaway prices / ruble collapse that could now be blamed on Western sanctions even though it had more to do with Russian economy being fully dependent on the price of oil.
- In the end, it's extremely unlikely that the West would go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Economic war, sure. Real war, no way.
- As Ukraine is getting weaker with every month, so does Russia thanks in some part to sanctions, and in large part to the falling oil prices. So I can't make predictions on how this would end. It can end up with East of Ukraine becoming a permanent hot zone / unrecognized semi-independent separatist republic, or with Russia eventually becoming China's b@tch because of Western sanctions and need for money and political support. Or the sides may just decide it's not worth it and go to status quo ante bellum.
I can, however, 100% predict that there will be no US-Russian war over Ukraine, at least not started by us. Sorry, Ukraine, you're not that important.
Last edited by Ummagumma; 07-13-2015 at 10:44 PM..
It's like a joke where a wimpy comedian (Emo Phillips?) says, "I finally stood up for my girlfriend. I said 'if you hit her AGAIN', he'd have to deal with me."
There will be no war between the USA/UK vs Russia over the Ukraine for this simple fact.
Obama/Cameron are not willing to spill blood over the Ukraine.
Putin, on the other hand is very willing.
Furthermore, while Obama seemingly has no problem attacking tin pot, 3rd world countries who can't directly fight the US military, attacking Russia is quite another matter.
Russia in fact has invaded Ukraine
With tanks and troops now the comes the difficult part
Admitting the treaty is broken and doing something about it
Well obviously yes, this all true. But what does the U.S. do about it?
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Nevermind the Ukrainian troops captured on Russian territory that crossed into it fleeing the rebels. Some invasion, Ukrainian troops fleeing to Russia to escape the rebels.
