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You are 100% wrong on your assessment. The lottery has a limited number on combination of numbers. Yes this number is in the millions, but each time you buy a lottery ticket, you are buying a different combination of numbers. Let's look at your coin toss example. I buy a lottery ticket labeled heads. When you flip that coin, I have a 50% chance of winning. Now, if I buy two tickets. One labeled Heads and one Labeled tails. When you flip that coin, I have 100% chance of winning.
Whoa. Slow your roll, daddio. There's a big difference between random and non-random selection. My scenario was about random selection. Let's explore that a little...
You *might* be buying a different combination of numbers. Quick picks aren't guaranteed to be unique.
"I'll take two quick picks for the coin toss, please."
"Ok, here are your two tickets."
"These tickets both say Heads..."
"Quick picks aren't guaranteed. Next customer, please!"
The moment you take an active role by choosing every combination (not my scenario, your scenario), that changes the name of the game (probabilistic vs deterministic). My scenario (probabilistic) holds. Yours does too (deterministic). They're just different scenarios.
I'm a programmer by trade, so I'm used to the non-deterministic (probabilistic) properties of random values. It's something that tends to trip up less experienced programmers, since it doesn't seem intuitive.
Or to look at my scenario a different way, let's use real numbers. Last I checked, the powerball odds are 1 in 292.2 million.
Your first ticket: odds of winning on that ticket are 1 in 292.2 million.
Your second ticket (same sequence of numbers): odds of winning on that ticket are 1 in 292.2 million.
Your third ticket (different sequence of numbers): odds of winning on that ticket are still 1 in 292.2 million.
Your 900 millionth ticket: odds of winning are still 1 in 292.2 million.
Too long didn't read version: Your model is deterministic. Mine is probabilistic. The lottery is probabilistic, since it is not guaranteed that there will be a lottery winner drawn.
I haven't bought a lottery ticket in years, maybe even decades, but I bought a couple yesterday. My hubby and I really enjoyed dreaming about what we would do if we won the whole pot.
Our first trip would be to rent a small cruise line ship and take our entire extended family on a cruise to Alaska, or maybe a river cruse in Europe, or maybe the Mediterranean.
The jackpot for this Saturday is currently standing at 675 million with a cash value of 413 million. It is expected that the cash value will be half a billion by the drawing, unless everyone spent all their money on last night's drawing.
Is it a wise investment?
The amount of the payoff does nothing to impact whether it is a wise investment. The investment has only a 1 in nearly 300 million chance of paying off. Even if the investment were 10 billion dollars, the chance of winning would not chance. If you wanted to lock in a win and spend $293 million buying every possible ticket, on the chance you were the only winner, you would see a 25% investment return, which would be a great investment return, but the chances of there being multiple winners, even one, would mean you would lose money.
Its lotto, it supposed to me a dream fund that is affordable even though you will never win. Play your $2, and move on. If you can afford to burn money, burn whatever you want, but no, it will never be a good investment. Its a chance at lifetime riches, so just buy what you can afford. I know people who take lunch to work every day and never go out to dinner because it allows them to save some spending money to buy things for themselves outsied their budget. Use that type of money to play, not money you need to pay rent, buy food or other life needs.
Call a lawyer, call an accountant, call a tax advisor, destroy my phone.
If you want to talk to me, talk to the lawyer.
Then, it's plane tickets by courier to the people I want, and down to some resort for the party.
I'm talking the FIRST things you'd do? I'm sure you're not going to grab the yellow pages, turn to the lawyer section and call some *******.
You might also have friends who are lawyers who might know someone but what are you going to do: Call your lawyers friend "Hey Bill, it's Bob. Hey, I just won $700 million on the lottery, you know any of your lawyer pals who could help me out".
Sure, but you're changing the scenario. You could have just as easily said the odds would be different if you flipped a two-headed coin.
My point: merely repeating a cycle doesn't increase the odds, whether it's flipping a coin multiple times or buying multiple lottery tickets.
A coin flip is not the same as a lottery. lottery's aren't binary. One random # has a probability of 1/X to win. Two random #s now have a probability of 2/X of winning. By buying additional different tickets you do increase your odds. The real question is at what point do the winnings have a positive expected value? You could do some math to figure it out, but I would be willing to guess the cash payout would need to be 20-30x higher than the current value for anything approaching a positive expected value. Now what many people fail to think about is the possibility that more than one person can win and thus they will reduce your overall pot.
As LowExpectations mentioned if you buy all 1 million possibilities in a 1/1 million lottery you will win. But if someone else wins you have to split the pot. What if 5 other people win?
Here is a good story on a lottery in Mass that actually had a positive expected value.
The jackpot for this Saturday is currently standing at 675 million with a cash value of 413 million. It is expected that the cash value will be half a billion by the drawing, unless everyone spent all their money on last night's drawing.
After I woke up from passing out after I won, I would have to drive to the state Capitol to validate I'm the mega winner. And I would remain anonymous (legal in my state).
Can you imagine walking into your bank carrying a check for $3-400 million dollars and filling out a deposit slip? Guess I wouldn't remain anonymous anymore at that point.
Would definitely need some type of financial adviser and/or a legal team to steer me in the right direction.
And suppose I wouldn't have to rent anymore, and would I move to a luxury retirement place?
How wonderful it would be just sit and think about it and try to absorb it all without getting too overwhelmed.
Are there people I know whom I'd want to help? Yep! But I'd somehow want them to get the money tax free since I already paid taxes on it. Would I donate to some charities? Probably.
The jackpot for this Saturday is currently standing at 675 million with a cash value of 413 million. It is expected that the cash value will be half a billion by the drawing, unless everyone spent all their money on last night's drawing.
Looking to be around $700M. If you were sitting there during the drawing, and had the winning ticket in your hand, what would you do in the first 5 minutes? First hour? (after all the screaming, crying, etc)
Me? I'd first take pictures of my ticket and send them to about 3 email accounts. I'd then make 3 photo copies and store them in my house, car and maybe my neighbors. I'd probably then have a big glass of bourbon to calm down because I'm sure I'm not sleeping that night.
I'd then probably call my parents and tell them it's a 'good' emergency and I need them to drive to my house ASAP.
Maybe even go online and see what the recommendations are for initial steps when you realize you have a winning ticket.
I'd definitely spend a few minutes checking/doublechecking the numbers!
But my first few minutes would be something like yours. Pictures to email accounts. Photocopies. Figuring out what to do first. I have no idea how to go about finding a lawyer for something like this, but luckily my brother-in-law is a lawyer, so I'm sure he would know someone in that particular field.
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