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They pushed it out a month. Is it guaranteed that herd immunity will be done by July?
It does not sound like they reached herd immunity but they are not seeing a surge in deaths or hospitalizations and increased cases appear to be due to increased testing. You have to look at all three data points to get an accurate picture. Just looking at cases is pretty pointless.
And it will continue to go down for the next week, due to the low case numbers three weeks ago.
Meanwhile the case numbers soared to a record high of 47,341 blowing past the previous day's record high of 40,212. That is six days of steadily rising numbers. Cases have more then doubled in the last two weeks from 20,170. This indicates that the corresponding number of deaths, will also soon double.
Just read an article on FL and their hospitalizations. Due to the younger age range hospitalizations have gone from 1 in 10, to 1 in 20. But they are also seeing increased infections in the older age groups, probably spread from the younger, so we will how long that lasts.
While that is a good trend, 1 in 20 people ending up in the hospital is still pretty bad.
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I read the article, I highly doubt they will reach herd immunity by the end of July.
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It does not sound like they reached herd immunity but they are not seeing a surge in deaths or hospitalizations and increased cases appear to be due to increased testing. You have to look at all three data points to get an accurate picture. Just looking at cases is pretty pointless.
True, but looking at hospitalization and deaths today and claiming they are “better” despite rising cases is also pointless. If you want to compare the 3 metrics, you need to compare them not at the same point in time, but at the point in time each is effected by the other.
If we know hospitalizations occur on average 2 weeks after diagnosis and that death follows on average 4 weeks after diagnosis then that’s how the data points should be compared. We won’t know the results of the rise in cases for a while since hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators.
True, but looking at hospitalization and deaths today and claiming they are “better” despite rising cases is also pointless. If you want to compare the 3 metrics, you need to compare them not at the same point in time, but at the point in time each is effected by the other.
If we know hospitalizations occur on average 2 weeks after diagnosis and that death follows on average 4 weeks after diagnosis then that’s how the data points should be compared. We won’t know the results of the rise in cases for a while since hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators.
My point remains the same, it’s important to look at all three together over a period of time to get an accurate picture. Just looking at cases is probably the weakest way to assess the situation considering it could just be due to an increase in testing and nothing more.
For w/e 6/20 the us is averaging 600 hospitalizations per 100K of covid cases. Think that is a good baseline to see how things progress from here forward. (from the CDC website)
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My point remains the same, it’s important to look at all three together over a period of time to get an accurate picture. Just looking at cases is probably the weakest way to assess the situation considering it could just be due to an increase in testing and nothing more.
But it has been proven not to be. FL for example increased testing 25%, but cases have gone up 400%. You can just check to percent positive to see if it is from testing increases.
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Did you ask her to self-quarantine before she interacts with family, or is it assumed that she's healthy and besides everything is pretty much back to normal?
Well, she'll quarantine in KA's home where as a family they can decide how to manage risk. It's not an either-or situation but a gradation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KathrynAragon
1) Everything is not "pretty much back to normal" and we all know that.
2) I don't know where or how an 18 year old girl who has no home in the US could "self quarantine for two weeks before she interacts with family," but I do know where some testing sites are locally. I think that's the best we can do. If we're told she has to quarantine with us for two weeks, we'll do that of course.
This interests me because my daughter will be moving out and I find myself wondering what visits home will look like. Testing is an option and one many appear to use before seeing relatives. Good idea and one that works well for your situation. Even if restricted to 'home-base,' I'm sure you'll have a wonderful time with your granddaughter.
For us testing wouldn't work since contact will be more frequent albeit of much shorter duration. We'll have to get creative. Once cold weather comes masking when she's home here for relatively short indoor visits may well be advised. That's going to feel really strange.
We have talked of DD 'visiting' for a few weeks from all of 3 miles away say for the holidays once her internships are done. Having her tested first never occurred to me. Like, duh. Thanks for the idea.
My point remains the same, it’s important to look at all three together over a period of time to get an accurate picture. Just looking at cases is probably the weakest way to assess the situation considering it could just be due to an increase in testing and nothing more.
I agree. But, calculating the percent positive regardless of the increase or decrease in tests it is also important. If the percent positive increases, that’s notable. That means the virus is circulating more heavily than it has been. IMO, that number is far more meaningful than just the total tests administered. The increases in many states of positive cases far exceeds the increase in testing.
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