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More like if available. We have never developed a successful vaccine for a coronavirus. The SARS vaccine was never completed so it is unknown if it worked. The common cold is a coronavirus and a vaccine for it has eluded us. Another problem is coronaviruses mutate easily. I am hopeful but a vaccine is not a sure thing and of course the flu vax has an efficacy of only 50%.
Just throwing this out there. There is no such thing as "the common cold". There are a variety of viruses including rhinoviruses, which are the usual culprits. There are over 200 viruses that cause what we know as the common cold, which is why there will never be a "cure" for it. There are seven known strains of coronaviruses. Of those, three are known to cause severe illness, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and this newer one SARS-CoV-2. But I get what you're saying.
Does anyone have a link providing the type 1 and type 2 errors in the Covid-19 testing? It seems that there are different types of tests and I am wondering about the type 1 and type 2 error comparison among them.
So the proof that most break through are just a nudge from previous efforts, it looks like intracellular zinc has been in the works for other therapies.
I have been trying to figure out how nasty Covid is. The most virulent infection I can think of is norovirus. It has an estimated reproduction rate of around 3, but that can spike as high as 16 depending on the environment. That's why norovirus outbreaks make the news, and why they close schools during outbreaks.
Covid has a similar reproduction rate, but a longer incubation period. Norovirus goes from infection to symptoms in 48 hours, while Covid takes 4 or 5 days. The outbreaks will move slower. It's a good guess that environmental factors will have a huge impact on reproduction rate. Outbreaks will happen when you confine people in contact with infected individuals, like on a cruise ship, basketball tournament, or in a nursing home.
Public health actions like canceling crowd events should limit outbreaks. Stay out of crowds. You are not likely to get infected buying auto parts or getting new hearing aids, but don't get on any cruise ships.
Updated on 3/13/2020. Now reflects an update on containment vs. mitigation strategies. 19 translations at the bottom. Send me more existing translations in private notes at the bottom. This article has received 24 million views in the last 72h.
With everything that’s happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today?
What?
Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:
How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?
What will happen when these cases materialize?
What should you do?
When?
When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:
The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.
This is the kind of post that spreads fear and panic.
Actual facts and figures from reputable infectious control experts are not meant to spread fear and panic
Last edited by mike1003; 03-14-2020 at 01:10 PM..
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Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
