Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Dallas, Abbott: temperature, systems)

[cheapaustinite]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

The numbers this weekend were a little bit encouraging. Case numbers are still really high, but deaths are down, and they were down significantly yesterday. Perhaps it was because it was a holiday, but deaths yesterday (nationally) were at just 254, down from 512 last Saturday. A couple small states haven't reported yet today, but right now, things sit at 234 (versus 285 last Sunday). These are both significant drops. I hope this trend continues. I realize that multiple experts have said that deaths could still spike, and some have even said that they will. But we're now three weeks into the national jump, and deaths are still consistently trending downward, with maybe just one or two days per week seeing slightly larger numbers than the same day the previous week.

I also have a not-so-secret hope that states that have "been through this" are resistant to subsequent spikes. Most states that had it bad the first go-round are doing very well this time, and the states that are doing poorly did relatively well the first time. This could be because those states learned to take it seriously, but I'm also hopeful that there is a deeper epidemiological reason for this. If so, maybe Texas and Florida will get through this current spike and have the worst behind them.

Kind of encouraging but not necessarily confirmed yet. And yes, reporting is different on weekends/holidays.

My wife is a COVID doctor and her best guess is that this is driven by a significant lag. Dying from COVID takes time and the prognosis for someone with a bad case of COVID gets exponentially worse as the hospitals continue surging. At that point, preventable deaths are not as preventable anymore due to limited resources. If this is going to get out of control with deaths, we'll know in 7-10 days. If not, then yes I'd be encouraged more so.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by cheapaustinite

Kind of encouraging but not necessarily confirmed yet. And yes, reporting is different on weekends/holidays.

My wife is a COVID doctor and her best guess is that this is driven by a significant lag. Dying from COVID takes time and the prognosis for someone with a bad case of COVID gets exponentially worse as the hospitals continue surging. At that point, preventable deaths are not as preventable anymore due to limited resources. If this is going to get out of control with deaths, we'll know in 7-10 days. If not, then yes I'd be encouraged more so.

I would be curious to hear what your wife might say about the idea that better treatments are making deaths happen later on the timeline compared to March/April/May deaths. In other words, if it was, on average, three weeks from virus contraction to death back then, is it possible that it is more like four or five weeks now?

And I agree completely regarding hospital resource exhaustion -- if we reach that point, deaths are very liekly to increase.

[zhappybird]

I think the re-surge of the death number is just a matter of time with such a high daily new cases. if by the end of this month, the death number still keeps low, that may mean the virus becomes weaker, but no one can count on that.

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

The numbers this weekend were a little bit encouraging. Case numbers are still really high, but deaths are down, and they were down significantly yesterday. Perhaps it was because it was a holiday, but deaths yesterday (nationally) were at just 254, down from 512 last Saturday. A couple small states haven't reported yet today, but right now, things sit at 234 (versus 285 last Sunday). These are both significant drops. I hope this trend continues. I realize that multiple experts have said that deaths could still spike, and some have even said that they will. But we're now three weeks into the national jump, and deaths are still consistently trending downward, with maybe just one or two days per week seeing slightly larger numbers than the same day the previous week.

I also have a not-so-secret hope that states that have "been through this" are resistant to subsequent spikes. Most states that had it bad the first go-round are doing very well this time, and the states that are doing poorly did relatively well the first time. This could be because those states learned to take it seriously, but I'm also hopeful that there is a deeper epidemiological reason for this. If so, maybe Texas and Florida will get through this current spike and have the worst behind them.

[Dr. Jake Oil]

Originally Posted by zhappybird

I think the re-surge of the death number is just a matter of time with such a high daily new cases. if by the end of this month, the death number still keeps low, that may mean the virus becomes weaker, but no one can count on that.

At the end of the month, it will be "two more weeks and we will see the effects of... " something else.

They've been two more weeks'ing us since the death counts started to trend downwards in April.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by zhappybird

I think the re-surge of the death number is just a matter of time with such a high daily new cases. if by the end of this month, the death number still keeps low, that may mean the virus becomes weaker, but no one can count on that.

If the deaths remain lower than they were back in March / April, it’s because the average age of infection has plummeted by 20+ years. We know this virus puts older people and people with comoridities at the highest risk of hospitalization and death so it is no surprise that with the average age of infection since June being 30’s that the death rate would plummet.

And also there are more well-vetted treatment options now, which should reduce deaths, though might just leave more survivors with long term health conditions.

Neither of those mean the virus is weaker.

[zhappybird]

So for those hospitalized patients due to C19, who will pay the skyrocketing Medical bills? Insurance company? Government? Their employer? There must have people without insurance as well. I often see a recovered c19 patients received 300k$ bill from media.

[cheapaustinite]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I would be curious to hear what your wife might say about the idea that better treatments are making deaths happen later on the timeline compared to March/April/May deaths. In other words, if it was, on average, three weeks from virus contraction to death back then, is it possible that it is more like four or five weeks now?

And I agree completely regarding hospital resource exhaustion -- if we reach that point, deaths are very liekly to increase.

Patient management is better than it was at the beginning of the pandemic just because we do know more now, and we know what to expect and when things can go awry.

That said, I actually don't know the answer to that. I do know that doctors, in general, have learned that sometimes patients can survive even after 30 days on a ventilator. Basically, it makes sense to do everything and go all out to save lives for as long as possible.

I will say... the last thing I want to do is get COVID right now... our hospitals are getting very, very busy. THAT scares me a lot more than COVID at this moment.

[cheapaustinite]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jake Oil

At the end of the month, it will be "two more weeks and we will see the effects of... " something else.

They've been two more weeks'ing us since the death counts started to trend downwards in April.

No... we never had the pandemic hit Texas until recent weeks. You're talking about tiny numbers prior.

Realistically, I think we'll seriously know in 7-10 days at most. If we don't see an uptick in deaths, that could mean many things (that scientist should keep exploring) but it will def. mean that we should be encouraged and can look towards reopening further again possibly (with a mask mandate, to be safe).

I have no clue where you get your news but I get it from doctors and when the doc told me that things were looking good on their end in March/April/May, I believed them and they were right. They are saying something different now.

We're all crossing our fingers this works out and deaths don't increase - that would be amazing. I'm not sure if reality will play out that way, but we can hope, right?

[cheapaustinite]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

If the deaths remain lower than they were back in March / April, it’s because the average age of infection has plummeted by 20+ years. We know this virus puts older people and people with comoridities at the highest risk of hospitalization and death so it is no surprise that with the average age of infection since June being 30’s that the death rate would plummet.

And also there are more well-vetted treatment options now, which should reduce deaths, though might just leave more survivors with long term health conditions.

Neither of those mean the virus is weaker.

Thank you for sharing a balanced view.

[GHETTAOLAO]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I would be curious to hear what your wife might say about the idea that better treatments are making deaths happen later on the timeline compared to March/April/May deaths. In other words, if it was, on average, three weeks from virus contraction to death back then, is it possible that it is more like four or five weeks now?

And I agree completely regarding hospital resource exhaustion -- if we reach that point, deaths are very liekly to increase.

If we learn what happened in New York hospital resource exhaustion should not happen in Dallas county, as of now Dallas county health department should already have a plan and should have all the resources ready.

This is what we hope for.