What would Detroit be like ten years from now? (2014, crime)
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This is where I see Detroit ten years from now. More middle easterners, fewer Blacks, more Whites. More high-rises. Better connected transportation wise; either light-rail or heavy-rail. Hopefully they will get rid of the people mover. That city needs about a good 15 lines, at current scale, perhaps more if they can move it out into suburbia. They could get by with 5 or 10, which is probably all the economy there could sustain until more people begin to move there.
Detroit suburbs won't change; they may absorb people that get priced out of the city, but other than that I see little change outside of the need for increased self-reliance and less reliance on the city itself economically, which is probably already going on as we speak.
The best option would be for suburbia to absorb large chunks of the city, IMHO. Would never happen with existing suburbs (hell or high waters) but perhaps new suburbs would be created.
Urban farming is an option for Detroit, but large scale urban farming may either be unsustainable, or would not deliver the profits necessary for private individuals to capitalize upon it. I suspect large corporations would take over large swaths of land and use it for farming. Because of the farms, population density would concentrate over smaller parts of the city. I would also put in new public parks.
The city needs to remove all of the blight. Detroit has a chicken and egg scenario where the blight needs to be removed, but no one really wants to pay for it to be removed, but if it is not removed there will never be progress.
The only way to stop the bleeding is to shrink the city to around 3/4 to 2/3 its initial size and turn over the rest of the land. Detroit could run very well as a smaller city the size of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but not at current levels. Between now and the next ten years you are going to see midsized Midwestern cities shrink well below 300,000 (and even 100,000 in some extreme cases) while cities like Indianapolis, Chicago, Columbus and a few others, perhaps Minneapolis or Madison, WI continue to absorb the loss. Detroit could very well become one of those cities. State capitals will fare well; everyone will have to fend for themselves.
As a St louis resident I think shrinking the cities political footprint is a bad idea. One of the main flaws of St louis is that the city way back in 1876 separated itself from its name sake county. This limited the city to not be able to annex land in the county, and led to the Balkanization, that created tiny incorporated towns even a few that have less then 20 people, and have a city hall and a police force, and it became a political nightmare that keeps the St Louis region from getting anything done.
So Detroit please for the love of god don't shrink your city limits. The city should stay the same size politically, but compact the built environment around downtown and let the remaining land in the city lay fallow, for future development, or just be farmland.
I don't think they can shrink the city limits. In fact, some of the most occupied, stable, wealthier, and denser neighborhoods are towards the edge of the city limits.
I don't think they can shrink the city limits. In fact, some of the most occupied, stable, wealthier, and denser neighborhoods are towards the edge of the city limits.
All we need is occupancy of vacant lands to regain a tax base - and it seems like there is renewed interest in doing just that. Maybe some progressive zoning modification to counteract the old non-residency or commercial-only regressive ones which has hurt downtown vibrancy - at least after business hours. I worked downtown and the place always cleared out after 5 p.m.
Allow local groups to put parcels to use which benefit the neighborhood.
You wouldn't remember my previous proposal here to divide the city into wards or "villages" each with representation in city government. Since these small areas would be well-defined and easier to oversee and manage, I thought such a setup might generate local pride, motivation, and perhaps defeat apathy born of the sense of powerlessness. <crickets>
This is where I see Detroit ten years from now. More middle easterners, fewer Blacks, more Whites. More high-rises. Better connected transportation wise; either light-rail or heavy-rail. Hopefully they will get rid of the people mover. That city needs about a good 15 lines, at current scale, perhaps more if they can move it out into suburbia. They could get by with 5 or 10, which is probably all the economy there could sustain until more people begin to move there.
Detroit suburbs won't change; they may absorb people that get priced out of the city, but other than that I see little change outside of the need for increased self-reliance and less reliance on the city itself economically, which is probably already going on as we speak.
The best option would be for suburbia to absorb large chunks of the city, IMHO. Would never happen with existing suburbs (hell or high waters) but perhaps new suburbs would be created.
Urban farming is an option for Detroit, but large scale urban farming may either be unsustainable, or would not deliver the profits necessary for private individuals to capitalize upon it. I suspect large corporations would take over large swaths of land and use it for farming. Because of the farms, population density would concentrate over smaller parts of the city. I would also put in new public parks.
The city needs to remove all of the blight. Detroit has a chicken and egg scenario where the blight needs to be removed, but no one really wants to pay for it to be removed, but if it is not removed there will never be progress.
The only way to stop the bleeding is to shrink the city to around 3/4 to 2/3 its initial size and turn over the rest of the land. Detroit could run very well as a smaller city the size of Cincinnati or St. Louis, but not at current levels. Between now and the next ten years you are going to see midsized Midwestern cities shrink well below 300,000 (and even 100,000 in some extreme cases) while cities like Indianapolis, Chicago, Columbus and a few others, perhaps Minneapolis or Madison, WI continue to absorb the loss. Detroit could very well become one of those cities. State capitals will fare well; everyone will have to fend for themselves.
Michigan has many midsized cities and they are increasing in population: Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Ann Arbor, and Midland. They are healthy cities with revived downtown areas. Battle Creek, Lansing, and Bay City have remained constant. Michigan has 3 cities in trouble: Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw. These are the only midsized to large cities in Michigan which will shrink.
Michigan has many midsized cities and they are increasing in population: Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Ann Arbor, and Midland. They are healthy cities with revived downtown areas. Battle Creek, Lansing, and Bay City have remained constant. Michigan has 3 cities in trouble: Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw. These are the only midsized to large cities in Michigan which will shrink.
On the contrary they just published stars saying young people continue to flee Michigan.
What would the demographics be like? would the city still be of 80% African American, or would it be more diverse?
If anything, I say Detroit will remain about 80-85% African American. I do not see a reversal in this trend anytime soon, despite some revitalization/diversity appearing in the midtown/downtown areas.
Would the city be able to stop to actually grow its population or at least stop the bleeding?
Detroit will continue to lose population. Middle class black flight has been occurring for over 20 years and will continue to occur in the northwest/northeast neighborhoods within the city limits this decade. People do not want to live in a city with high crime rates and urban decay.
Would the new streetcar being under construction currently does anyone feel it would be expanded to a larger system by then? (if successful)
I would like to see it expanded, but I doubt it will. The Detroit People Mover was originally intended to be a downtown distributor for a proposed city wide metro which never amounted to anything.
I guess the last question would be what would Detroit suburbs be like in ten years from now, and would the inner ring decline like many other burbs in the US ?
Inner ring suburbs including Ecorse and Warren have been in decline for the past 15-20 years and will continue to decline fueled by white and middle class flight as the poor move above 8 mile. I can't predict far into the future, but I do know city wide revitalization is key to keeping the metro from declining. You can't be in perfect health with a diseased body.
I think Northwest Detroit (north of Fenkell) is doing far better than Northeast Detroit. Outside of Hamtramack, Northwest Detroit probably has more continuous occupied blocks than any other part of the city and the blight (outside of Brightmoor) is child's play compared to the eastside. The blight is there no doubt, you will see a couple of vacant homes, but compare that to spots like Mack and Conner where there are continuous vacant blocks after vacant blocks, more vacant parcels of land than occupied. There are also more businesses on the major streets, colleges, and affluent neighborhoods. Those are the reasons why I believe Northwest Detroit will at least stabilize faster than most of the city in 10 years depending on how Detroit as a city goes, it may even become more desirable. You even have businesses taking chances on the northwest side like the Meijers being built on 6 mile and Grand River for example. I can only hope that soon, businesses will want to take chances in that section of Detroit where there are probably about 100k residents like they take chances with downtown, midtown, and corktown.
I think Northwest Detroit (north of Fenkell) is doing far better than Northeast Detroit. Outside of Hamtramack, Northwest Detroit probably has more continuous occupied blocks than any other part of the city and the blight (outside of Brightmoor) is child's play compared to the eastside. The blight is there no doubt, you will see a couple of vacant homes, but compare that to spots like Mack and Conner where there are continuous vacant blocks after vacant blocks, more vacant parcels of land than occupied. There are also more businesses on the major streets, colleges, and affluent neighborhoods. Those are the reasons why I believe Northwest Detroit will at least stabilize faster than most of the city in 10 years depending on how Detroit as a city goes, it may even become more desirable. You even have businesses taking chances on the northwest side like the Meijers being built on 6 mile and Grand River for example. I can only hope that soon, businesses will want to take chances in that section of Detroit where there are probably about 100k residents like they take chances with downtown, midtown, and corktown.
There's no question a few neighborhoods are holding on, but much of northwest Detroit continues to decline (Five Points, Brightmoor, parts of Warrendale) and I can't see the population decline turning around or stabilizing this decade with few jobs or good schools the area.
There's no question a few neighborhoods are holding on, but much of northwest Detroit continues to decline (Five Points, Brightmoor, parts of Warrendale) and I can't see the population decline turning around or stabilizing this decade with few jobs or good schools the area.
I consider the NW side north of I-96. Warrendale is just the westside to me, Warrendale has it's fair share of vacant homes here and there but again, child's play compared to some truly desolate neighborhoods on the eastside. Joy Rd is notorious for it's crime and drug trafficking in that area. But it looks like their building a subdivision over there right off the freeway.
Five Points, can't comment on it. I rarely hear about it and I don't often travel through there to even see it.
There is no excuse for Brightmoor. It's terrible.
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