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I live in Texas (DFW), so I can't speak for the rest of the country. But in this area unemployment is only 5.5%... Home prices also haven't fallen very much at all. During the hardest times in the great depression unemployment across the country was at 30%. Companies in DFW are still hiring.
Now if you look at present day Detroit (unemployment 30%+) then yes, they may be in a "great depression." Certain parts of the country are feeling this recession much more than others. Certain states are spending themselves into a very deep hole... Detroit's Unemployment Rate Is Nearly 50%, According to the Detroit News
But no, I don't think we are even close to a great depression. I'm keeping my money in mostly dividend stocks though as I think the recovery will be very very slow. But there will be a recovery-- we won't dip down like in 08 again.
It has DFW at about 8.5% (about half down the list) and Detroit Metro at 14.3% -- near the bottom. Not trying to be a number-needle-dick, just figured that you or other folks might like to see the "fishy" official numbers.
Some areas get far worse numbers than Detroit by that chart. Most folks -- including Bankers and the Federal Reserve tend to view those numbers as under-counts.
But a real question for you? I am DFW area, as well. Considering this whole area runs on .gov money, why do figure that things will not go down here if .gov money is cut-back . . . or do you figure they will keep spending going at the present rate?
It has DFW at about 8.5% (about half down the list) and Detroit Metro at 14.3% -- near the bottom. Not trying to be a number-needle-dick, just figured that you or other folks might like to see the "fishy" official numbers.
Some areas get far worse numbers than Detroit by that chart. Most folks -- including Bankers and the Federal Reserve tend to view those numbers as under-counts.
But a real question for you? I am DFW area, as well. Considering this whole area runs on .gov money, why do figure that things will not go down here if .gov money is cut-back . . . or do you figure they will keep spending going at the present rate?
Thanks for looking that up... Don't know if they will keep spending at current rate-- just know they spend less than certain other states.
The real reason Texas is doing better than the rest of the country is because of the energy industry.
I say yes, we are already in one but we won't admit it.
It's not gonna be the same though...it would be silly to assume it would be just like the first great depression, after all it is a totally different world and dynamic now than it was in the 1930s. Even the word "depression" is more or less undefined and open to interpretation. Still, I imagine that's how history will remember this decade.
I'm with Chango on this one. But I do think there is going to be another round that is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. No one really wants to address the gobs of money we're wasting on health care that aren't doing any good (not the politicians, certainly not the health care companies, and not the average overweight/obese American). And one of the biggest espenses going forward is going to be for health care....Much of our current health care expense nightmare could be prevented if we got away from processed food and exercised. But I don't think enough people will make the necessary changes until the existing health care system collapses and they're forced to behave differently.
I think we just need a tuneup, maybe adjust the economic fuel injectors a tad, get some new rubber under it all and we'll be just fine........Jeeeez, doesn't sound like the populace really has any idea what is really going on, recession, depression? Inflation, deflation, it all seems so adjustable from the posts herein. All great empires came down the same road more or less, and we will be going into that long downward journey to our own oblivion just as the others have in the past. Nobody would be foolish enough to guess the timeline but the direction is obvious even to those who only months ago were upbeat by the media circus BS surrounding our demise.
This isn't to say that we have to sit and cry over it all but maybe the truth should be known regarding the real causes of our latest economic reversal. Staving off the reality of the inevitability of debt as currency has been our forte for a long time, the tab's here and we can't pay it. Depression and recession are those terms that were concocted to explain the pain associated with this kind of fiat system, both have their own parameters that usually define the level of discomfort caused by these periodic "catchups" that characterize the worst of the capital/state combined economic drivers.
The past turndowns in the US economy were certainly hideously disproportionate in the pain caused to those in the lower strata as opposed to the mild cuts and bruises suffered by the upper classes. It's this aspect of economics that doesn't get much coverage in the Ivy league schools of finance. The pain of the nineteen thirties depression that ruined so many of the nations poor will be back this time with a slight but significant twist, most American's of today have a much longer fall to the bottom, and when they reach that bottom there won't be any help from a government busy with the giving of aid to their corporate masters.
I don't think we are in for another "Great Depression."
But google the term "Long Depression." It occurred in the late 1800s and I think that it is a more close approximation to what we are going through now.
I hope I'm wrong on that, but this has been a long time coming. Decades of
1-Dumbing down of the populace
2-Bad governmental and business practices and policies, both fiscal and social
3-Being fat and happy with ourselves
have left us in this position and now we'll have to dig our way out of it.
I'm thinking the same thing....that this period will look more like the 1890s depression than the 1930s depression.
Of course, the wild card really is that so many other countries own our debt now. That and the potential terrorist attacks make us more vulnerable now than back then.
I also agree...we really have become complacent as a nation...and our thinking is very short term. The interesting part is the liberals notice the short term thinking of the conservative business community, but not their own. And the conservatives notice the short term thinking of the liberals who advocate more government spending, but not their own.
What is natural about this? Nature did not force us to be dependent on fossil fuels.
Actually, we have a couple centuries' worth of cheap, abundant fossil fuels. We use them because they are the most cost-effective source of energy. When other sources become more cost-effective, we will switch.
The trajectory of the economy depends a lot on whether the US continues on the path toward the European model of social welfare democracy. Europe is stagnant compared to the US: long term average unemployment about equal to our cyclical peak levels, and pitiful growth rates. Germany just posted the best quarterly GDP report in twenty years--2.2%! Their best quarter is lower than our average quarter.
I sure appreciate all the gloom and doom. It makes blue chip US stocks dirt cheap, with the added bonus of ridiculously low mortgage rates. Hard to understand the gloom when the average US credit score is at the highest levels since 1998. We are getting healthier, but feeling sicker.
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