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Old 10-03-2010, 03:58 PM
 
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For those with financial acumen, what is your best guess on how the dollar will fare against the Euro in 2011?

Will the American dollar ever reach parity with the Euro?
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Old 10-03-2010, 07:46 PM
 
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Parity? It has happened before.

I think the euro countries have tried to hide their massive debt issues, but it's going to be a drag for years to come. To say their currency is overvalued is an understatement.
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Old 10-04-2010, 02:34 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
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Recently EUR/USD has depended on perceptions of whose debt problems are worse.

Since late 2004, 1.36 seems to be a pivot-point, about where we are now, 1.18 is a bottom for the euro, around 1.50 a top, with one peak around 1.60.

I would not expect the USD to recover to parity against the EUR in 2011, unless by some miracle a new majority in the US Congress can reduce the budget deficit to something like 3% of GDP and reduce unemployment to like 7%.

Don't hold your breath.
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Old 10-05-2010, 11:22 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
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Europe has some real problems, and the Dollar is benefiting from them by the US not looking as bad by comparison. Without Europe’s problems the dollar would be in much more serious trouble. What we are seeing now is what some have called currency wars, with all countries trying to boost their exports by way of devalued currency. Of course this cannot work, as they offset each other, and it is not possible for everyone to increase exports.
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Old 10-07-2010, 07:07 PM
 
Location: NJ/NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Europe has some real problems, and the Dollar is benefiting from them by the US not looking as bad by comparison. Without Europe’s problems the dollar would be in much more serious trouble. What we are seeing now is what some have called currency wars, with all countries trying to boost their exports by way of devalued currency. Of course this cannot work, as they offset each other, and it is not possible for everyone to increase exports.
We (the US) are winning.
EUR/USD is now at 1.39, an 8 month high
The Japanese yen is at a 15 year high against the USD
And the Aussie dollar is almost at parity with the USD. The friggin AUSSIE DOLLAR????
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Old 10-08-2010, 09:42 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
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Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
We (the US) are winning.
EUR/USD is now at 1.39, an 8 month high
The Japanese yen is at a 15 year high against the USD
And the Aussie dollar is almost at parity with the USD. The friggin AUSSIE DOLLAR????
Winning? How so? When you are running a trade deficit, a weaker dollar makes imports more expensive and therefore is inflationary. Inflation in consumables, at the same time as a recession is lowering incomes, is hardly winning for the people.
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Old 10-08-2010, 11:26 AM
 
10,854 posts, read 8,512,679 times
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Originally Posted by xavierob82 View Post
For those with financial acumen, what is your best guess on how the dollar will fare against the Euro in 2011?

Will the American dollar ever reach parity with the Euro?
If the world wide economy slows down it's going to strengthen if the world wide economy picks of pace the dollar is going to weaken. A good mini scenario is May of this year when the Greek fiscal crisis threatened the Euro. EUR/USD when down to about 1.24 it is now in the 1.38 to 1.39 range. The carry trade of selling dollars and buying currencies like the Aussie, the Kiwi and other high interest countries is the easiest money in the financial services industry right now. This trade will probably be good to go for a while if EUR/USD goes to 1.45 or higher then it’s time to at least consider taking some money off the table.
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Old 10-08-2010, 11:27 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD View Post
We (the US) are winning.
EUR/USD is now at 1.39, an 8 month high
The Japanese yen is at a 15 year high against the USD
And the Aussie dollar is almost at parity with the USD. The friggin AUSSIE DOLLAR????
It's a great trade. Just ride the wave.
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Old 10-08-2010, 11:33 AM
 
10,854 posts, read 8,512,679 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Recently EUR/USD has depended on perceptions of whose debt problems are worse.

Since late 2004, 1.36 seems to be a pivot-point, about where we are now, 1.18 is a bottom for the euro, around 1.50 a top, with one peak around 1.60.

I would not expect the USD to recover to parity against the EUR in 2011, unless by some miracle a new majority in the US Congress can reduce the budget deficit to something like 3% of GDP and reduce unemployment to like 7%.

Don't hold your breath.
It's going to YEARS before you see a dollar come anywhere close to parity with the Euro if ever. Keep in mind we literally came face to face to financial Armageddon in October 2008 and that still wasn't enough to move it to parity. Plus the ECB mandate is to guard against inflation first and economic growth second. The higher ECB interest rates are always going to attract dollars. Growth rates in the Euro zone are going to have to absolutely crater to change this dynamic. With Germany cranking out the exports maintaining a steady GDP growth rate I don't necessarily see that happening.
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Old 10-08-2010, 01:00 PM
 
Location: NJ/NY
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Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Winning? How so? When you are running a trade deficit, a weaker dollar makes imports more expensive and therefore is inflationary. Inflation in consumables, at the same time as a recession is lowering incomes, is hardly winning for the people.
So you understand the irony, but the humor in it was lost on you.
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