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Old 10-16-2010, 09:07 AM
 
Location: Fairfield, CT
6,339 posts, read 9,313,277 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Sure. That is the application of studying the Worst Case Scenario.

Doomers tend to be experts on the Worst Case

Worst Case Scenarios are very worthy study cases because generally to be un-prepared for the Worst Case leads to disaster level outcomes, but if they are studied in advance and properly prepared for, they can just be an inconvenient mis-adventure.

Take for examples --

the Titanic -- driving reckless and without lifeboats = disaster. If the Worst Case were considered in advance -- drive slow and have safety equipment. Not a big deal.

A schoolhouse or nightclub fire -- blocked exits and no plan = disaster. If the Worst Case were considered in advance -- smoke and heat detectors, open doors, clear plans and marking, emergency lighting. Not a big deal.

Same on the Economy and Business -- consider the Worst Case(s) the Doomers present, and have plans to deal with them. No big deal.

ALL of the crash matters, methods and outcomes were in discussion by Doomers for at least a couple of years, now. I did a Read and Heed of them, and have avoided many painful aspects of the downturn.

Pretty handy device and method if one thinks about how to use it all.

So why is it that the Glib Nitwits who only like Happy Talk feel compelled to rant against the Doomers?
Oh, I think the worst case should always be considered. The fact that we didn't is a big part of why we have such a terrible mess.

It just can't be the only thing that is considered. I think that many people who talk about worst case are just trying to wake people up to our problems. Many people are still in denial, and think that our goal should be to restore bubble conditions by spending even more money than the amounts that have sunk us (the president and congress come immediately to mind).

But you can't lead people through negativity, ultimately. You have to point a way to a positive solution if you want to do more than wake people up, which is really the first step. That first step must be taken, but then you have to move beyond it. As a society, we haven't really taken the first step.
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Old 10-16-2010, 09:27 AM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,169 posts, read 2,613,057 times
Reputation: 4850
No. The REAL crux of the issue is, as in politics, there seems to be no sensible middle ground. You got one half of the CD board consisting of ethics-free Polyannas who are grousing for a DOW 75,000 and would happily look the other way at a Chinese Child Prison Labor camp if it means an extra .01% dividend cash return. They don't say it explicity, but it's pretty obvious from the tone of their posts that they are seeking and demanding what are largely unearned riches. Interesting how they will mock and ridicule someone who goes into a casino to play a slot machiner or poker game yet they will drone on endlessly about their prospectus', P+E ratio charts, ad nauseum. Even though both expectations and objectives (and odds) are pretty much on parity with each other.

And then the other half consisting of equally extreme (and deluded) "doomsdayers" calling for a DOW 100, the moon crashing into the earth, and how running water will soon be a thing of the past. These people seriously need to get a grip and realize that short of a full scale nuclear Armageddon and Mankind annhilitates itself, it's highly unlikely that it will EVER get that bad. I agree that there needs to be some hard questions asked and realistic solutions offered. It's one thing to be prudent and plan for your future. But some of these folks really could use a Friday night at a nightclub followed by an enjoyable evening with a woman of loose virtue.
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Old 10-16-2010, 09:28 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,349,597 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dazzleman View Post
Oh, I think the worst case should always be considered. The fact that we didn't is a big part of why we have such a terrible mess.

It just can't be the only thing that is considered. I think that many people who talk about worst case are just trying to wake people up to our problems. Many people are still in denial, and think that our goal should be to restore bubble conditions by spending even more money than the amounts that have sunk us (the president and congress come immediately to mind).

But you can't lead people through negativity, ultimately. You have to point a way to a positive solution if you want to do more than wake people up, which is really the first step. That first step must be taken, but then you have to move beyond it. As a society, we haven't really taken the first step.
Sure.

When doing actual Sceanario Planning, at least two other conditions are usually considered -- The Best Case and Changed Case.

Have to consider the Best Case to make a plan to be profitable, and produce the outcome intended.

Have to consider the Changed Case to ensure there is flexibility to meet changing conditions.

Overall, no Scenario functions as a any sort of predictor of the future, and no Scenario creates the future -- any more than Smoke Detectors cause fires, or lifeboats make ships sink.

All of them are just methods of being prepared.
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Old 10-16-2010, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 20,084,553 times
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Observation:

You are all basing a best case/worst case projection on people who will never experience "worst case." You (all the posters here, and all others who are financially secure) will not have to worry. It is the growing numbers at the bottom, many now living in tent cities (California and other states) that will experience worse and worse, and worst. And it can hardly be argued that more numbers will join their ranks. So...it would be helpful to make remarks based not on generalities but on specifics (ie, specifically who will suffer if worse and worse, or worst, case scenarios unfold).
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Old 10-16-2010, 10:37 AM
 
2,079 posts, read 2,826,186 times
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thanks for all the info, all i need now is a bottle of jack, some rope, and an unsteady stool.
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Old 10-16-2010, 11:37 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,349,597 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
Observation:

You are all basing a best case/worst case projection on people who will never experience "worst case." You (all the posters here, and all others who are financially secure) will not have to worry. It is the growing numbers at the bottom, many now living in tent cities (California and other states) that will experience worse and worse, and worst. And it can hardly be argued that more numbers will join their ranks. So...it would be helpful to make remarks based not on generalities but on specifics (ie, specifically who will suffer if worse and worse, or worst, case scenarios unfold).
Been close enough to get a good taste and fear of the bottom and respect for the condition. Details if you need, but dunno there is much point in swapping Hard Times resumes.

Anyway, going back to the point of considering the Worst Case -- the objective is to avoid, or at least mitigate, and make those Worst Cases survivable.

If you want the specifics of the Worse of the Worst Case and how the present plays out -- Last time we were in this deep, things got sorted out with a World War that ended with Nukes going off. History may not repeat, but it sure tends to rhyme.

Meanwhile, as far as who will get to suffer. Steerage Class. Same as the Titanic. You must have seen the movie? Watched it 10 times and the boat sinks Every Time. Same folks survive and the same folks drown. Every Time.

No different in the Here and Now.

Presently everyone in Steerage and even some of Third and Second Class is being locked below deck. Upside down houses. Credit with double digit interest. Payday Loans. Pay cuts if they are still working.

Meanwhile 1st Class Wall Street and Bankers are getting bonuses and bail-outs.

The Movie (and real life) ends the same way -- Every Time.

Lesson Learned? Don't be on the Titanic when it hits the Iceberg.

Or maybe, just maybe -- If you are on the Titanic and in a minor glimmer of independent thought and pro-active action . . .

start building Life Boats?

Good Idea, huh?
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Old 10-16-2010, 01:01 PM
 
2,414 posts, read 4,983,662 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tightwad View Post
This is all to common a story since it's built on the lie that is American Consumerism..........

"We are like that one couple that almost every neighborhood seems to have that has two shiny new cars in their driveway, that dresses in designer clothes and that seems to have plenty of money to take vacations and yet is in debt up to their eyeballs."

Read the whole story to get really depressed.

More Bad News: 10 Things You Should Know About The Latest Economic Numbers
"consumerism" refers to the efforts of Ralph Nader, etc. You're using the term incorrectly here.
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Old 10-16-2010, 03:11 PM
 
85,909 posts, read 83,390,623 times
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its all about plan for the worst and hope for the best... its not about dwelling on every bit of negative thing that can maybe happen..

the problem herre is some like to keep dwelling on only the bad, at the expense of probley being succesful themselves.

i have my own saying: the only ones who repeat history are historians.. in my almost 60 years on this planet i can think of nothing that played out the same way twice with the same results.

each time is just different enough to void out any planning you would have done if you bet on that outcome.

first iraq war markets tanked on the news. second time we soared as an example

i dont ever think i know whats next , i allow for slack in my plan but ill never think im so gifted that i got it all figured out to the point ill tell others their view is dead wrong.

as humans our brains are flawed. we can only rationalize with what we know. we cant factor in what we dont know or arent aware of leaving us all to believe our own bull-sh*t......

the reality is you can plan and profess toknow whats next but its events not even on the radar that will most likely prove you wrong.,.

Last edited by mathjak107; 10-16-2010 at 03:28 PM..
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Old 10-16-2010, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,847 posts, read 2,132,093 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
its all about plan for the worst and hope for the best... its not about dwelling on every bit of negative thing that can maybe happen..
That is how I have lived my entire life and it has served me well.
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Old 10-16-2010, 11:08 PM
 
59,298 posts, read 46,352,704 times
Reputation: 36788
Quote:
Originally Posted by nightbird47 View Post
It's really bad when 61% of households live check to check. I'm familiar with the feeling of the planning with that little "what if" tacked on to anything. There is no security to life. This is something that will be very hard for many to get used to as even more and more end up slipping downward.

I don't see how people manage at all in areas like socal where I'm from. I moved for other reasons but very much appreciate that the cost of living is so much less here than there. I think we are going to have a generation of high school to their 20's aged kids now who will have to learn to live with a very different reality if they aren't one of the lucky few who get the few prizes out there.

Teach your kids thrift and saving and to be flexable. They'll need it.
Agreed. It's a lot easier if you live in "fly over" country. I'm a 10 year transfer from a high COL area and love my short commute, low housing prices etc.
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