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How substantial is the jobs recovery that is often given as proof that the economy is on the road to recovery? By looking at the chart in this article you can see for yourself that it is far lower than any "recovery" of past recent recessions.
What is causing this anemic recovery, and is it indicative of what is going to be coming in the economy going forward?
We created 2.5 million jobs last year. That sounds good until you realize that 1.5 million of those were created overseas. That leaves 1 million created here which breaks down to 83,000 a month. It takes 150,000 new jobs a month to even keep up with population growth. Bottom line is there is no jobs recovery at all, nor will there be one in the future. Welcome to the new normal globalization has caused.
It hard to judge the future just as its evdient that like the 70's recession mnyjobs will never retrun. Also as lablor rises in cost automation and robots become cheaper alternative. I the 70's recession we saw that jobs hwere the employeee was trained became more and more rare to get anything near a middle wage income. That trend has just continued since then.
Looking at the chart a pretty simple equation could be made which would show it will take probably 80-100 months out we'll recover the jobs lost. I think most economists have said this. There will be a pretty intense run up of job creation at some point when momentum is built, its clear employers are holding back on adding jobs until they see reason to do so. Further a lot of small businesses have been created from the ashes and they generally take a few years until they hire anyone, but then they gain momentum and tend to hire quite a few people 4-5 years out provided they make it that far.
I don't think there is anything unusual in what's going on now. Historians have said from the truly crushing recessions/depressions of the past it takes 6 years or more to get full recoveries. We're barely entering year 3.
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Originally Posted by Willy702
Looking at the chart a pretty simple equation could be made which would show it will take probably 80-100 months out we'll recover the jobs lost. I think most economists have said this. There will be a pretty intense run up of job creation at some point when momentum is built, its clear employers are holding back on adding jobs until they see reason to do so. Further a lot of small businesses have been created from the ashes and they generally take a few years until they hire anyone, but then they gain momentum and tend to hire quite a few people 4-5 years out provided they make it that far.
I don't think there is anything unusual in what's going on now. Historians have said from the truly crushing recessions/depressions of the past it takes 6 years or more to get full recoveries. We're barely entering year 3.
Agreed. That sounds about right to me.
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