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*Housing is now priced in 4%, 30 year interest rates, meaning any rise in interest rates from recovery will hammer housing back in place.
* The boomers are down sizing and looking to sell.
* Proping up housing means the house for 200k cannot be supported by a $10 an hour job next to it, meaning the income to housing ratio is out of balance.
* This means skilled workers no longer want to come to the US to work and we may see US natives look elsewhere emptying living space.
Its trying to get housing to recover artificially that is not allowing the bottom to be reached.
*Housing is now priced in 4%, 30 year interest rates, meaning any rise in interest rates from recovery will hammer housing back in place.
* The boomers are down sizing and looking to sell.
* Proping up housing means the house for 200k cannot be supported by a $10 an hour job next to it, meaning the income to housing ratio is out of balance.
* This means skilled workers no longer want to come to the US to work and we may see US natives look elsewhere emptying living space.
Its trying to get housing to recover artificially that is not allowing the bottom to be reached.
Expensive housing makes you poor, not rich.
As usual, all very good points Gwynedd1.
I heard on the radio earlier today that the Assoc. of REALTORS aren't producing the real numbers, which could be mis-reported by 50%.
Ouch! Starting to sound like Unemployment figuring.....
I don't base my information off what someone else tells me. Working the front desk in a real estate office, I base it off what I see personally. What I see in my area is that we have had as many transactions this year as we did in '09 or '10 COMBINED. I am seeing buyers who can't find a house to buy because every home on the market that isn't a fixer already has offers on it. I am seeing more and more homes get into a bidding war, driving up the price. Prices haven't started to rebound yet, but there are definitely more sales taking place in my area.
I believe they knew what was going on and didn't really want to fix it. This is based on the last 5 years of sales data. Basically they were doubling counting sales in a lot of areas with MLS. Some areas had their own MLS, but were covered under a bigger MLS system, so many areas got counted twice.
All these people that say we need homes to "recover" don't understand the market. The market before was a bubble that was way too high and if we ever get back to that, we will have the same disaster again. Real estate should not be subsidized and the monopoly of Fannie and Freddie needs to be gone. They think by subsidizing and helping the real estate market they are making it more affordable, but in reality they make it more expensive and less affordable. Many people aren't in financial condition to buy a house. Yes, home ownership is a good thing when done correctly (free market), but home ownership isn't the role of the government or shouldn't be promoted as a jobs thing. You'll end with the exact same result we have just gone through if you try to prop up the housing market again.
I believe they knew what was going on and didn't really want to fix it. This is based on the last 5 years of sales data. Basically they were doubling counting sales in a lot of areas with MLS. Some areas had their own MLS, but were covered under a bigger MLS system, so many areas got counted twice.
All these people that say we need homes to "recover" don't understand the market. The market before was a bubble that was way too high and if we ever get back to that, we will have the same disaster again. Real estate should not be subsidized and the monopoly of Fannie and Freddie needs to be gone. They think by subsidizing and helping the real estate market they are making it more affordable, but in reality they make it more expensive and less affordable. Many people aren't in financial condition to buy a house. Yes, home ownership is a good thing when done correctly (free market), but home ownership isn't the role of the government or shouldn't be promoted as a jobs thing. You'll end with the exact same result we have just gone through if you try to prop up the housing market again.
While i agree with you on recovery aspects. Our economy inflated around housing, because we make little else that is sold in Walmart.
While i agree with you on recovery aspects. Our economy inflated around housing, because we make little else that is sold in Walmart.
Consider the implications around that and a credit monetary system. With most loans being backed by housing where is the new money going to come from. We essentially had a housing backed currency.
Right now I consider us in a short cyclical boom time in a vicious secular bear economy. If the demonic host of republicans get their way with a balanced budget(which shuts off public created money) its like trying to dodge a shot gun blast with it duck tapped to your head. How is a debt saturated money system going to borrow its way out of debt?
I don't base my information off what someone else tells me. Working the front desk in a real estate office, I base it off what I see personally. What I see in my area is that we have had as many transactions this year as we did in '09 or '10 COMBINED. I am seeing buyers who can't find a house to buy because every home on the market that isn't a fixer already has offers on it. I am seeing more and more homes get into a bidding war, driving up the price. Prices haven't started to rebound yet, but there are definitely more sales taking place in my area.
Boise is stronger in jobs than many areas of the U.S. right now. Of course your sales would be higher. That is not indicative of the country as a whole.
While i agree with you on recovery aspects. Our economy inflated around housing, because we make little else that is sold in Walmart.
That is not why.
The value of housing inflated because of interference in the market. Interest rates were artificially kept low, there was an excess of credit, and then the government tried to crow-bar people into housing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeavingMA
I believe they knew what was going on and didn't really want to fix it. This is based on the last 5 years of sales data. Basically they were doubling counting sales in a lot of areas with MLS. Some areas had their own MLS, but were covered under a bigger MLS system, so many areas got counted twice.
Probably in a pathetic attempt sell houses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeavingMA
All these people that say we need homes to "recover" don't understand the market.
An economy that revolves around housing is doomed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeavingMA
The market before was a bubble that was way too high and if we ever get back to that, we will have the same disaster again. Real estate should not be subsidized and the monopoly of Fannie and Freddie needs to be gone. They think by subsidizing and helping the real estate market they are making it more affordable, but in reality they make it more expensive and less affordable. Many people aren't in financial condition to buy a house. Yes, home ownership is a good thing when done correctly (free market), but home ownership isn't the role of the government or shouldn't be promoted as a jobs thing. You'll end with the exact same result we have just gone through if you try to prop up the housing market again.
The market will recover as soon as all the interference is removed. Still a lot of bad loans out there, and those have to be dealt with.
I'm not necessarily opposed to the concept of Fannie Mae, but tax-payers should not be on the hook for credit card debt, which is the case now.
HELOCs and 2nd/3rd mortgages should be barred as a condition to government-backed mortgages. If homeowners want a HELOC, then they'll need to transfer the mortgage to a different financial institution and out from under the tax-payer shield.
*Housing is now priced in 4%, 30 year interest rates, meaning any rise in interest rates from recovery will hammer housing back in place.
* The boomers are down sizing and looking to sell.
* Proping up housing means the house for 200k cannot be supported by a $10 an hour job next to it, meaning the income to housing ratio is out of balance.
* This means skilled workers no longer want to come to the US to work and we may see US natives look elsewhere emptying living space.
Its trying to get housing to recover artificially that is not allowing the bottom to be reached.
Expensive housing makes you poor, not rich.
Pertinent points all, but you left out the biggest factor of all: property taxes are going to soar because government is broke and has to milk the few remaining cows harder.
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