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http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...NUY9Qjk9lp_EKg
In 2010 Jamie Dimon said that we could most probably expect another market crash in 2015.
This is approx. 7 years after the beginning of the crash of 2008-2009.
In recent years many people including Harry Dent, David Stockman, Peter Schiff, and Michael Pento have all pointed to 2015 as the year of the next crash.
While we all know that crashes are part of the economic cycle and one is coming at some point down the road, is there any reason to believe that 2015 will be an especially critical year?
Some people point to the building bond bubble being created by the Fed as the catalyst of the next crash.
While bubbles are usually a cause of over investment by the public using borrowed money, I suppose the Fed could theoretically replace the public by becoming the primary market and causing a bubble by themselves.
I would like to hear some educated thoughts on this.
I would like to hear some educated thoughts on this.
There is no thought that can be made to counter the blind belif of economic crashes.
The prediction had no data, evidence, or anything else but the opinion of a single person. One would need hundreds, if not thousands, of pages to list out all predictions about economic collapse (or end of the world) that have been made...that have all been proven wrong. The Economic Collapse Blog lists new ones out every single day.
There is no evidence that 2015 will be any different then any other year. Wishing or dreading it to be will not change what happens in reality. All this desperation for the next economic collapse is making me wonder how sad must a person's life be that they spend every day thinking about everything ending as a better solution then living life.
I have read the article about Jamie Dimon telling his daugher approx. every 5 years there is a crash in the US it's the nature of capitalism, boom bust, boom bust.
Dimon has access to info, insider info that makes him a lot more credible than Harry Dent. Dent and Schiff are fringe character Dimon no.
The housing market is slowly turning bubble right now.
Is anyone else as tired of hearing the word "bubble" as I am?
Yes.
I dont think there are going to be any "crashes" or "bubbles". Or mass layoffs or anything of the like. I dont think anything that drastic is in the cards outside of a major world event.
Larger companies are very aware of world economic conditions. They just lived through 2008 and are prepared for a similar event. They have a lot of cash, are not bloated, and arent overextending themselves. Theres not much potential for a "crash"
2010 was three years ago. A lot has changed in three years. The real question: is Dimon's comment still relevant?
How do you define a "crash"? 10% correction? 30% correction? 50% correction?
Obviously the market can't go straight up and there will be pullbacks. But anyone salivating about a 2008-style meltdown is probably going to be disappointed. I don't see the same irrational exuberance that led to the 2000 dot com bust and the 2008 economic crisis. There are so many bears still screaming about the next crash or the end of QE, many of them probably reeling because they were shorting the market before the big runup.
Fundamentally, most companies have a healthier balance sheet now than before the crash. Most have been right-sized. Many have been conservative in their growth forecasts. It's easy to listen to some fool throw a dart at a board, but it takes a lot more effort to follow earnings releases and production forecasts. The forecasts by Ford or GE's CEO hold more weight than some doomsayer trying to sell a book.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...NUY9Qjk9lp_EKg
In 2010 Jamie Dimon said that we could most probably expect another market crash in 2015.
This is approx. 7 years after the beginning of the crash of 2008-2009.
In recent years many people including Harry Dent, David Stockman, Peter Schiff, and Michael Pento have all pointed to 2015 as the year of the next crash.
While we all know that crashes are part of the economic cycle and one is coming at some point down the road, is there any reason to believe that 2015 will be an especially critical year?
Some people point to the building bond bubble being created by the Fed as the catalyst of the next crash.
While bubbles are usually a cause of over investment by the public using borrowed money, I suppose the Fed could theoretically replace the public by becoming the primary market and causing a bubble by themselves.
I would like to hear some educated thoughts on this.
Bottom line is that no one really knows. Another crash will probably happen. I thought it would have all totally crashed by now, but I was wrong. I still feel that our economy is inherently unstable and could be crashed at any time...but I don't know the timing of it.
2010 was three years ago. A lot has changed in three years. The real question: is Dimon's comment still relevant?
How do you define a "crash"? 10% correction? 30% correction? 50% correction?
Obviously the market can't go straight up and there will be pullbacks. But anyone salivating about a 2008-style meltdown is probably going to be disappointed. I don't see the same irrational exuberance that led to the 2000 dot com bust and the 2008 economic crisis. There are so many bears still screaming about the next crash or the end of QE, many of them probably reeling because they were shorting the market before the big runup.
Fundamentally, most companies have a healthier balance sheet now than before the crash. Most have been right-sized. Many have been conservative in their growth forecasts. It's easy to listen to some fool throw a dart at a board, but it takes a lot more effort to follow earnings releases and production forecasts. The forecasts by Ford or GE's CEO hold more weight than some doomsayer trying to sell a book.
It's definitely true that corporate balance sheets are a lot stronger...but government balance sheets are much weaker, not just in the U.S. but throughout the developed world.
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