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Problem now is that there seems to be more than one bubble that will break at the same time. Housing is another bubble and so is tech. Stock market itself is a bubble someone once said. I think that we are heading into something big. Also China supposedly has a few bubbles going. One being housing. The break of their bubbles will effect the whole world just as ours do.
Some do confuse the two. To say no one does it is simply silly
No, to try to push this point was picayunish. Everybody knows that neither everybody nor nobody is meant to be taken literally unless context makes it necessary. Watch a GEICO commercial or something.
Yes tired but you better get used to it because you are going to hear it more often.
Probably for so long as the grievously under-informed harbor hopes of appearing sophisticated. The term "bubble" has actually had no other purpose in recent times than to provide some sort of smokescreen cover for those having committed a variety of criminal and other nefarious and damaging acts.
In general these days, people who use the term "bubble" in any other sense than the one it is used in here can simply be dismissed out of hand.
i have been an investor for 28 years , soon to be 29. i have seen 2 crashes , 100k in the fidelity insight growth model i followed is now worth over 2 million since 1987 and i have seen endless things called bubbles.
just about all were not bubbles at all ,in fact i can count on one hand what were actually bubbles.
...i have seen endless things called bubbles. just about all were not bubbles at all ,in fact i can count on one hand what were actually bubbles.
I've been playing since the 1960s, and it would take me no hands at all to count up the number of things that would actually have been a bubble. Bubbles basically don't exist. Markets go up, and markets go down. This is what they do. If they do it on any sort of rational basis, it is not a bubble. People need to get used to that.
... The vast majority of people simply lack one or more of the time, capacity, and interest necessary to become savvy investors or money managers. They don't deserve consignment to the ninth circle of hell for this.
...
Thank you for that! I am one of the great unwashed, lol! - and find it difficult to construct a cohesive investment philosophy amidst (what appears to me to be) a general malaise.
I appreciate your sticking up for the likes of me!
I must disagree with you about the real estate bubble. I'm in Metro DC and was gobsmacked by how much wishing prices went up between 2003 (when I left) and 2007 (when I came back). NOTHING fundamental had changed in the underlying metrics, in terms of employment and salaries. Yet, wishing prices doubled.
I attribute it to too much ez money via debt sloshing around with nowhere to go. The real estate racketeers hustling the "howmuchamonth" mentality. The lending institutions clawing at one another to find the next sucker upon whom to unload their excess liquidity once capitalization rules no longer mattered. And the whirlpool of filthy money coming in from all over the world, looking for a laundry.
Just imagine the "favors" that get monetized, the drug and prostitution cash that passes through the nation's capital. The trillions of dollars in procurement every year whose wheels require greasing. The many layers of "mordidas" required to keep up with demand for corporate builds in the face of a ballooning bureaucracy. A real cesspool.
So, the filthy money needs a home. Asset purchases provide a nice, clean home. People on salaries cannot compete with people for whom money is simply green stuff that has to be laundered. The banks cooperate by corrupting traditional underwriting and documentation rules. Everybody benefits - except for the marks earning a W-2 or 1099 living. But while the bubble inflates, they delude themselves since "real estate always goes up". They are the only suckers left when the music stops playing who are holding real debt. They thought they would get out whole.
There was a bubble all right, in my opinion. A surfeit of meaningless money thrown against a geographically limited quantity of assets.
I'd very much like to view these corruption-fed cycles through a more measured lens. I'm reduced to assessing investment options through the Harry Browne filter.
Thank you for that! I am one of the great unwashed, lol! - and find it difficult to construct a cohesive investment philosophy amidst (what appears to me to be) a general malaise.
I appreciate your sticking up for the likes of me!
I must disagree with you about the real estate bubble. I'm in Metro DC and was gobsmacked by how much wishing prices went up between 2003 (when I left) and 2007 (when I came back). NOTHING fundamental had changed in the underlying metrics, in terms of employment and salaries. Yet, wishing prices doubled.
I attribute it to too much ez money via debt sloshing around with nowhere to go. The real estate racketeers hustling the "howmuchamonth" mentality. The lending institutions clawing at one another to find the next sucker upon whom to unload their excess liquidity once capitalization rules no longer mattered. And the whirlpool of filthy money coming in from all over the world, looking for a laundry.
Just imagine the "favors" that get monetized, the drug and prostitution cash that passes through the nation's capital. The trillions of dollars in procurement every year whose wheels require greasing. The many layers of "mordidas" required to keep up with demand for corporate builds in the face of a ballooning bureaucracy. A real cesspool.
So, the filthy money needs a home. Asset purchases provide a nice, clean home. People on salaries cannot compete with people for whom money is simply green stuff that has to be laundered. The banks cooperate by corrupting traditional underwriting and documentation rules. Everybody benefits - except for the marks earning a W-2 or 1099 living. But while the bubble inflates, they delude themselves since "real estate always goes up". They are the only suckers left when the music stops playing who are holding real debt. They thought they would get out whole.
There was a bubble all right, in my opinion. A surfeit of meaningless money thrown against a geographically limited quantity of assets.
I'd very much like to view these corruption-fed cycles through a more measured lens. I'm reduced to assessing investment options through the Harry Browne filter.
i always liked harry browne and for 40 years it was really a very good strategy but today with bonds reversing a 40 year history of adding to the party those days may be behind us at these levels.
the portfolio tends to do better in more inflationary times and with bond rates in a more normal zone.
going forward i think at best it will keep up with inflation but may have trouble doing much more than that. basically all parts have been struggling now. it isn't like if one fell one went up .
the permanent portfolio mutual fund no longer has much in common with the original concept and is not a recommendation at all in my book. so any comments are reserved for the basic concept .
all in all i think the 4 part permanent portfolio may have seen its better days end with the final drop in rates.
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