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The cool thing about a forum is its archival properties. You can pretty much go back every month and see a post claiming "crash around the corner." By now we should be living in Mad Max land.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny
Absolutely. Lots of sky-is-falling posts on this forum. I don't go back a month or so. I look back years to the posts from people like Jimhcom and see the same dire predictions. At that point it is time to stop even trying to have a discussion with people who have been consistently wrong.
An interesting side note is that on forums like this the serial doomsdayers despite constantly being proven wrong year about the coming inflation, stock market drop, recession, double dip, etc. always seem to enjoy referencing their past investment acumen.
They invariably got out of the stock market in 1999, sold their real estate in 2005, went to all cash in 2007, and claim to be successful investors when you know they if they actually followed their own wisdom they would have missed all the gains from this once-in-a-generation bull market we've been running on.
I've even seen where you find posts in late 2012 saying they are going to all cash, but at the end of 2013 where market rose 25%+ they suddenly change their tune and never really did sell. This is often accompanied by some lame excuse where they realized they should have been right but powers out of their control forced their hand to stay in the market "fed was gonna keep pumping money in so I had to ride it" type bull****.
People confuse the stock market with the economy. One can do extraordinary well, while the other one suffers. This can even occur at the other's expense. The economy has been disappointing, given the actions taken by the fed. If the stock market were to fall, it would probably trigger a great deal of mistrust in the foundation of this "recovery", and our whole concept of the "new economy".
If there is no crash in 2015 then I predict there will be a crash in 2016.
Repeat for 2017, 2018, 2019.... until I get it right.
Nah man the preferred technique is the purposely vague time frame reference, that way you are harder to pin down as wrong. As in:
- I predict we'll have inflation after QE ends.
- When this bubble bursts you'll all wish you were in gold
- it is all a house of cards that will soon come crashing down
etc.
I found a nice example of the "soon" technique here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
My bet is that soon you will see another chapter in the depression take place. When you do, stocks will fall, bonds will fall, commodities will fall, real estate will fall, credit will dry up, and those with the foresight to have some of those dollars you are so eager to dispose of will be able to buy up assets at fire sale prices.
That is from 2011 so clearly poor prognostication skills, but since the only time reference is "soon" and soon could indeed mean more than the four years since this post, it isn't wrong. Doom is coming... soon. If we have a depression in 2018, author of post was right... seven years was soon and I'm sure we'd get some lecture about seven year cycles and that is the wider time reference they meant by soon.
HEED MY WARNING! Sometime this year, there will be serious natural occurrence, something involving either wind, rain, snow, or an earthquake. Many people will be affected to various degrees, and property damage may possibly be significant, or very slight. It will most likely happen at night, but be ready for a daylight event. It should take place either north or south of the equator. When it is over, it will prove to be much worse or maybe not as bad as I have predicted.
You doomsday people have to get over yourselves. There have been countless predictions year after year saying things are going to collapse and they never happens. I think the doomsday people deep down inside want the economy to crash and for there to be social panic.
Is anyone else as tired of hearing the word "bubble" as I am?
Yes tired but you better get used to it because you are going to hear it more often.
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