Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I sold all of my equity investments in the spring of 2000.
I sold my house in 2006. Purchased another house in 2008.
I sold 1/4 of my wealth in gold 2 months ago.
Will not go to any real extent to defend my decision because if you think that no one can do this then that is what you get out of it. I can't remember most of the reasons to sell my equities in 2000 or to sell my house in 2006 but to sell the gold was a very easy decision. When the COMEX reported that the largest withdrawals in their history of physical gold was happening and the futures disappeared, selling my gold was the only logical decision. From what I can tell gold will continue down for awhile.
This was all just random luck. Now do all of you learning challenged posters feel better! Or are you just going to say I'm making all this up?
I currently have 50% of money in cash and 50% in equities. I was 100% in equities just 3 months ago.
Concerning the OP, I'm currently reading Harry Dents book and he has made the case for later this year or 2014. He as said in recent video that the government could push the crash into 2015. 2 years ago he called most of what's happening now including the gold dump.
What do you see as the factors leading into the next crash? Fed policy is the basic underlying support in stocks, and to a larger extent bonds at the current time, but there is little indication that they are looking to back off QE infinity at this time. It is my personal opinion that they will ride this train until inflation forces them to back off.
What do you see as the factors leading into the next crash? Fed policy is the basic underlying support in stocks, and to a larger extent bonds at the current time, but there is little indication that they are looking to back off QE infinity at this time. It is my personal opinion that they will ride this train until inflation forces them to back off.
"Don't fight the Fed"
As any one can see whats happened in the last day after Bernanke made his speech. Markets shot up at the beginning and then when he was asked the question about when he may be thinking about slowing his printing and he said that they will be discussing this at the June meeting, a second later the markets dumped, later about 2PM the mins of the April FOMC meeting were released and it said that the governors had talked about decreasing the printing then markets dumped again within seconds.
The markets are riding on a razors edge and will dump with just the thought from the Fed that they will back off their support of the economy. If the Fed stopped their support tomorrow, I think the markets would drop maybe 40% within days and the the economy would contract for maybe a few years. Then at some point inflation would take over and that's when the real pain starts.
In MHO bonds are past their attractiveness. I have no money in bonds or bond funds.
I don't consider the economy to be doing that well and will not invest based on normal market results.
The next crash will probably start with the Fed when they stop the printing. Obama care starting in Jan will cause some fluctuations in the markets most likely down. The downward trend will start in the fall and will not be a crash (maybe) but a slow trend down.
As any one can see whats happened in the last day after Bernanke made his speech. Markets shot up at the beginning and then when he was asked the question about when he may be thinking about slowing his printing and he said that they will be discussing this at the June meeting, a second later the markets dumped, later about 2PM the mins of the April FOMC meeting were released and it said that the governors had talked about decreasing the printing then markets dumped again within seconds.
The markets are riding on a razors edge and will dump with just the thought from the Fed that they will back off their support of the economy. If the Fed stopped their support tomorrow, I think the markets would drop maybe 40% within days and the the economy would contract for maybe a few years. Then at some point inflation would take over and that's when the real pain starts.
In MHO bonds are past their attractiveness. I have no money in bonds or bond funds.
I don't consider the economy to be doing that well and will not invest based on normal market results.
The next crash will probably start with the Fed when they stop the printing. Obama care starting in Jan will cause some fluctuations in the markets most likely down. The downward trend will start in the fall and will not be a crash (maybe) but a slow trend down.
Note; all this is just MHO.
I agree, with everything you said here, the real question is at what point will the Fed begin to remove support. They are currently in a no win situation facing ever increasing inflation if they remain on the current course, and panic along with economic recession as soon as they begin tightening.
I really do not see any asset group which will be immune from devaluation once this begins, but I do look for less of a hit in hard assets.
Oh dear. If adding something intelligent were a requirement, there wouldn't be very many posts here. No gloom-and-doomer nonsense...no made-up stories of past investment glory...none of these phony monetary policy analyses. What would be left anyway?
Ever increasing inflation? Everything they've done so far has barely staved off deflation.
Printing does not = inflation.
Bingo we have a winner! Chicken dinner for you!
Most people on this thread have no concept the velocity of money without money moving there is no inflation on large scale inflation is required for a fiat money system.
Is anyone else as tired of hearing the word "bubble" as I am?
Yes, the term "bubble" is definitely in a bubble right now.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
