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Old 05-12-2014, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
7,829 posts, read 11,792,339 times
Reputation: 9045

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Dow almost 17000! Wow, even my wildest expectations did not imagine this and it seems to be poised to go even higher, sentiment seems to be robust and traders seem to be simply shrugging any negative data. We are a full 16% above pre-recession highs which is simply flabbergasting with further upward momentum At this rate we will reach Dow 20,000 by year end easy.

In addition even the Real estate market in some places like California are almost back to the highs reached during the bubble and continue to escalate. I would not be surprised if real estate prices even exceed their bubble peaks.

MASSIVE bubble that is going to have an astronomical collapse soon or are the good times back for good?
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Old 05-12-2014, 05:23 PM
 
Location: 3rd Rock fts
762 posts, read 1,099,856 times
Reputation: 304
Default The FED has been embarrassed long enough!

Quote:
Originally Posted by k374
In addition even the Real estate market in some places like California are almost back to the highs reached during the bubble and continue to escalate. I would not be surprised if real estate prices even exceed their bubble peaks.
I see the opposite. It obvious the stock/real estate market is out of control. Since the punchbowl drunken fools are incapable of cooperating with the FED/USGovt, a planned deflation is the only way to get the real estate-employment synergy ignited again.

Just as important, the FED has been looking naively foolish for some time now. IMHO, Ms. Yellen has decided to shred the wealth-effect blueprint & head back to the drawing board. She will continue to warn/lecture about the real estate-employment connection for a little while longer. Then, she will end this circus once & for all via real estate deflation.

Note: Homeowners have had ample time to lower their housing costs via low mortgage rates. Also, the ubiquitous baked-in-the-cake citizen subsidies will help deal with this monumental, necessary 'correction'.
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Old 05-12-2014, 05:28 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,975,497 times
Reputation: 7315
Corp earnings are rocking, so the DJ does not surprise me at all.
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Old 05-12-2014, 05:45 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,908,308 times
Reputation: 14125
The stick market is running on house money, the minute that money is gone, we'll see if it is a true gain or just another bubble.
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Old 05-12-2014, 06:12 PM
 
4,983 posts, read 3,292,527 times
Reputation: 2739
Thanks Obama!
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Old 05-12-2014, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,347 posts, read 3,335,447 times
Reputation: 5382
Let the good times roll!
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Old 05-13-2014, 12:13 AM
 
30,896 posts, read 36,970,454 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Corp earnings are rocking, so the DJ does not surprise me at all.
With 446 out of 500 of the S&P 500s earnings reports already in, they're expected to be up less than 4% from the same period a year ago. I hardly consider that "rocking".

Five weeks into 2014 Q2, total earnings for the quarter are currently expected to be up +3.7% from the same period last year

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/3249...-final-stretch
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Old 05-13-2014, 01:24 AM
 
4,765 posts, read 3,733,913 times
Reputation: 3038
The S&P is a good broad market indicator. Still growth stocks, small caps, Nasdaq and others are seeing a rotation/correction. This is a good thing after the out performance of the last few years in certain sectors. While the S&P is up 2.61 YTD 05/12/14, the DJIA is only up .72 YTD , the Nasdaq is -.78 and the RUT is -2.58. So quite a mixed bag. If the S&P is annualized it would only equate to around 6%.

I will be happy with a 6 - 8 % S&P gain by years end. This may finally be the year that value outpaces growth, so personal results may be dependent on allocations.
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Old 05-13-2014, 01:32 AM
 
106,705 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
The stick market is running on house money, the minute that money is gone, we'll see if it is a true gain or just another bubble.
WE ARE JUST ABOUT WHERE WE WERE 14 YEARS AGO.

the s&p trades at 16x forward 12 month earnings vs 25x in 2000. we have been seeing record profits.

we had a tech bubble back in 2000. 14% of the s&p's earnings came from tech, and it jumped to 33%. today we are at 19%.

earnings expectations are far lower. we are looking at 9% anticipated earnings vs 17% in 2000

interest rates are far far lower today , 2000 we had the 3 month treasury at 5.9%. today it is .05%

the 10 year was at 6% vs 2.7% today


ipo's for first quarter were 11 billion with 63 new issues coming on board 1st quarter

2000 saw 115 new ipo's and 18 billion brought to market.

quite frankly i don't see it grossly over valued at all.
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Old 05-13-2014, 04:27 AM
 
4,765 posts, read 3,733,913 times
Reputation: 3038
Agreed and neither does anyone who actually looks at the numbers.
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