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If this is so, we'd expect to see a tight correlation between the housing market and VMT (vehicle miles travelled).
VMT has been moving sideways since declining in 2008-2010. I agree with the assessment that some of this is directly related to the economy, however 2007 was the end of the last secular trend towards increasingly remote suburban development, and total development dropped off a cliff not long after that. Many of the furthest communities developed during that time dropped in value to a small fraction of their replacement cost. Meanwhile, development is picking back up but it will be a few years before the latest development trends start having a noticeable impact on overall population distribution. For now, we're mainly seeing a relative lack of demand in more remote areas signaled by lower prices and longer times to sell, or both.
Another noteworthy consideration is the proliferation of hybrid cars in the last 7 years. They enable people to take on longer, congested commutes at a lower operating cost although it doesn't appear this is having the effect of making people drive more - at least not relative to the other trends affecting miles driven.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,699 posts, read 81,529,753 times
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In our area where the median priced existing home is $600k and new homes start at $800k, there are plenty of Millennials
buying and starting families. They have jobs at companies like Boeing, Amazon or Microsoft, where, like much of the tech industry, there are far more younger workers and few boomers except in upper management. Her where I work (not tech though we have an IT department) 3 of my workers are millennials in the 60k salary range and have bought homes, one in Seattle two in more remote and inexpensive areas 30-40 miles away. None of them drives, one takes the bus or rides his bike, the other two both take the train.
why did you quote my post twice and respond twice with nearly identical statements?
I didn't Stack, there's two of us telling you the same thing. Believe me, I was an earlier generations equivilent of hipster back in the 80's, and my parents before me back in the 60's, etc, etc. Believe me, in another 20 years or so, everything you think of as "hip" now will seem pretty lame and silly.
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i'll just attribute it to the older generation thinking all of us young'uns are naive idiots
I don't think your generation is all naive idiots, just sorely lacking in real world experience. I know, I was there not all that long ago. You'll understand what I mean later. There really is no truer statement then "if only I'd known then what I know now." You sound a lot like my 23 year old daughter, and believe me, she knows it all, or so she thinks, lol. Lots of living yet to do and lots of lessons yet to be learned.
That's not to pin all of these things on you personally. From the rest of your post above it certainly sounds like you have a plan, and that's a good thing. Most younger people today don't have a plan, and don't even seem to realize they need one. The entitlement crap with your generation needs to stop though - you're not entitled to anything. You don't walk around demanding your way in life, you earn it. But you'll figure it out in time, and that's what my earlier post was about. Your generation is nothing special, and you'll learn that eventually, just like those that came before you.
VMT has been moving sideways since declining in 2008-2010. I agree with the assessment that some of this is directly related to the economy, however 2007 was the end of the last secular trend towards increasingly remote suburban development, and total development dropped off a cliff not long after that. Many of the furthest communities developed during that time dropped in value to a small fraction of their replacement cost. Meanwhile, development is picking back up but it will be a few years before the latest development trends start having a noticeable impact on overall population distribution. For now, we're mainly seeing a relative lack of demand in more remote areas signaled by lower prices and longer times to sell, or both.
Another noteworthy consideration is the proliferation of hybrid cars in the last 7 years. They enable people to take on longer, congested commutes at a lower operating cost although it doesn't appear this is having the effect of making people drive more - at least not relative to the other trends affecting miles driven.
Technically, you have to figure in the additional depreciation and maintenance/repairs associated with mileage as an operating cost of a car. In that case it is less clear that hybrid cars have a lower operating cost than pure-ICE cars, given that the former tend to have higher prices when new than the latter.
I didn't Stack, there's two of us telling you the same thing.
oh mybad, thought you were using multiple screen names or something.
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Believe me, I was an earlier generations equivilent of hipster back in the 80's, and my parents before me back in the 60's, etc, etc. Believe me, in another 20 years or so, everything you think of as "hip" now will seem pretty lame and silly.
i already think everything is "lame and silly". are you telling me that it gets worse?
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I don't think your generation is all naive idiots, just sorely lacking in real world experience. I know, I was there not all that long ago. You'll understand what I mean later.
i would go and try to acquire more of that "real world experience", but that stuff costs money and i got bills to pay
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There really is no truer statement then "if only I'd known then what I know now." You sound a lot like my 23 year old daughter, and believe me, she knows it all, or so she thinks, lol.
how can i "sound" like anything on a visual message board?
i don't claim to "know it all". i only know as much as i can plug into the google machine.
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Lots of living yet to do and lots of lessons yet to be learned.
you never stop learning lessons in life. if you do, then you're doing it wrong.
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That's not to pin all of these things on you personally. From the rest of your post above it certainly sounds like you have a plan, and that's a good thing.
i figure i might as well come up with a plan. i see a sad future ahead for most of the usa, i don't want to get caught up in that mess and become jaded like everyone else. maybe i just want to stay ahead of the tide.
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The entitlement crap with your generation needs to stop though - you're not entitled to anything.
thanks, but i am not the guy to talk to about the entitlement mindset. maybe you should speak to their parents(gen x) that thought everybody should get a trophy for participating just so they dont hurt anyone's feelings. and even if they are in last place, mommy will still buy them that ps3 for xmas anyway
16 years old, helped my single mother out with the rent. walked into a restaurant, got a job bussing tables the same day. still managed to graduate high school with honors.
19 years old, moved my entire family up to NH during the 2008 meltdown on my dime? supported everyone, including my mother, for several months on my savings? done
i had to work hard to earn everything i got. 3 jobs during college, including an internship? done
saved up a few thousand to buy a car outright. couldn't pull that off until 3 years into school
had $20,000 in student loans that i graduated with a year ago. paid it down to about $4.5k as of this month with a job i got two weeks after graduation.
how's that for entitlement?
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You don't walk around demanding your way in life, you earn it. But you'll figure it out in time, and that's what my earlier post was about. Your generation is nothing special, and you'll learn that eventually, just like those that came before you.
see above post. you're not telling me anything new. people have been telling me this since i could walk. so we have an understanding. you and thatguy been been seeing the stuff i've been saying for years, just like i've been saying the same "advice" from the ole' timers since i graduated to the big boy potty. so i guess we've reached an impasse
The way to fix this problem is NOT "wait it out". The way to fix it is to make higher education affordable once again.
What has happened to higher education is called "financialization". The loose definition of that is, prices have risen to the max that can be borrowed to pay for them. The same thing happened to real estate after WWII, and then to auto prices in the 70's. Almost nobody pays cash for these any longer; few now are paying cash for college. The difference is, this is the first time financialization has been foisted onto those not yet working.
It may be instructive to note that never in history has a financialized sector gone backwards to affordability, unless the economic system contracted severely. On the contrary, as each sector becomes financialized, it becomes necessary to do the same to a new sector, in order to keep the credit merry-go-round growing. Once that comes to a halt, it is game over.
What has happened to higher education is called "financialization". The loose definition of that is, prices have risen to the max that can be borrowed to pay for them. The same thing happened to real estate after WWII, and then to auto prices in the 70's.
I'm not convinced. Real house prices after WWII only rose to the same level as they were in 1890, as indicated by the Case Shiller Index. It appears the price of houses has more to do with the cost of construction than with the availability of large mortgages. Certainly the availability of credit controls the exact timing of short-term market fluctuations; loosening mortgage credit can cause house prices to rise this year instead of next, for instance. But in the long term it is constrained by the cost of construction.
Same with cars; short-term changes in prices occur at the time they do as a result of economy and credit; but in the long run, their price is constrained by the cost of production.
Is it any different with education? You can certainly make somewhat of a case for it, by arguing that the availability of student loans "allowed" states to cut funding to universities, and allowed the elites like the university president to have skyrocketing salaries even adjusted for inflation. But this doesn't tell the whole story either - states have also cut funding to schools at the K-12 level, for which students do not borrow. So it must at least a priori be plausible that the funding cuts to colleges and universities are due to the same state budget problems causing K-12 to be cut, which is unaffected by the availability of student credit. Hence much of the rise in college tuition is *not* due to a "financialization" effect.
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Originally Posted by Nor'Eastah
Almost nobody pays cash for these any longer; few now are paying cash for college. The difference is, this is the first time financialization has been foisted onto those not yet working.
It may be instructive to note that never in history has a financialized sector gone backwards to affordability, unless the economic system contracted severely. On the contrary, as each sector becomes financialized, it becomes necessary to do the same to a new sector, in order to keep the credit merry-go-round growing. Once that comes to a halt, it is game over.
It's not clear to me that that is the case. The more "financialization" there is, the larger the share of a family's income is being sucked away by debt payments, giving them less purchasing power for other things.
In the long run, credit does not allow more spending with the same income, in other words, it doesn't remove the financial constraints, it merely delays them.
But when the constraints finally hit, they hit with interest.
Another noteworthy consideration is the proliferation of hybrid cars in the last 7 years. They enable people to take on longer, congested commutes at a lower operating cost although it doesn't appear this is having the effect of making people drive more - at least not relative to the other trends affecting miles driven.
meh, in many areas, it is cheaper and more advantageous to rent in terms of social mobility. it costs over $200,000 to raise a kid from 0-18. and marriage is an archaic concept with far too much to lose.
this is the hipster generation. we reject societal norms of previous generations while taking a **** on anyone else who believes otherwise. and we're entitled hypocrites too.
This is not a world I want to live in.
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